How much does anyone think Mitt's home state advantage is worth in MI? MI has been pretty consistently more Dem at the national level than PA since the 1980s.
Another question is how much is the Mormon thing worth in NV and AZ? It is certainly worth something, probably something akin to the black thing in 2008, but since Mormons already turn out at high rates, probably less.
MI was more Republican in the presidential elections 1984-1992. I would have expected Romney to have better chances at flipping Western states, but the polling seem to dispute this so far.
Poll
