If Romney carries all the states that went for Bush in 2000 AND 2004 (so that doesn't include NM, IA or NH) he ends up with 281, which means he can drop NV or CO and still win
How's he polling with hispanics compared to Bush? Colorado and Nevada aren't all that viable for Mitt.
The problem with the thread is that it only mentions one state.
The short answer is that in order to get from here to 51%, Romney has to (among other things for sure) pull a rabbit out of his hat with Hispanics. He also has to pull a neat trick of winning border hawks while simultaneously winning Hispanics. He did this successfully in Florida and probably NV (sample was too small to be measured in the exit poll). This began to come apart in Arizona against Rick Santorum, who did better amongst hispanics despite being more hawkish on the border. If anyon can walk a tight rope of nuance in this race, it is Romney. He is also the most likely to stumble while doing it thanks to a gaffe and look completely transparent as well.
