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Author Topic: Will Obama break 65% in California?  (Read 10048 times)
PR
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« on: March 22, 2012, 03:11:23 pm »

Since these threads seem to have been popping up...

Obama got just under 61% here in 2008. In a midterm year that was very Republican across the board, Californians chose to stick with the Democrats by solid margins. The demographics are very favorable to Democrats and becoming more so.  Obama has a huge following in this state. The California GOP is weak and ineffectual except for vetoing tax increases. Tongue

What say you?



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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2012, 03:13:22 pm »

Nah. Romney has appeal with some of the secular moderates who bolted in 2008 because of Palin (Torie Republicans), and Obama is probably pretty close to a ceiling in CA anyway.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2012, 03:19:54 pm »

No.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2012, 03:21:10 pm »

Excessive hackery. On the offense. Replay third down.
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2012, 03:21:57 pm »

nah brah
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2012, 03:44:38 pm »

My first inclination would be to say that that would be ridiculous, but four years ago I didn't think that he could break 60%. 65% would require a 4.06% swing from 2008. For reference, here's what the 2008 election would look like with a 4.06% uniform national swing:

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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2012, 04:10:06 pm »

My guess is that Obama will get around 57% (no trend) or 58% (slight Dem trend) in CA in a skin tight national election. The Torie vote will go against Obama, along maybe with some Jews and Silicon Valley types who are not otherwise part of the Torie vote, but the Hispanic vote will probably go up, and it will be a disaster for Mittens, fully offsetting the trend against him, or a bit more. I don't think Mittens will make much, if any, progress with Asians either.  That is my wild guess.  

Now, if Santorum were the nominee?  Ouch!  65% seems about spot on. It would be wipeout time in CA, and Pubs here might as well just close up shop.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 04:40:52 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2012, 04:27:34 pm »

Somewhere between Torie's estimate and the 2008 result. I think this is one of the states where Obama maxed out in 2008 for the near future but I also don't think the election will be skin tight.
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« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2012, 04:33:54 pm »

Nah. Anywhere between 58 and 63%.
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strangeland
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« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2012, 04:45:18 pm »

Not against Romney. It's a possibility against Santorum or a sacrificial lamb coughed out by a brokered convention, but that's not going to happen.
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2012, 04:58:16 pm »

Nah. Probably gets the same as he did in 2008.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2012, 05:13:15 pm »

This "will 'x' break 'y'%..." threads should be merged. One is enough.

That said, no, he won't break 65%. Only if Romney chooses Palin again as his VP.
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« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2012, 05:53:11 pm »

These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.
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« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2012, 07:06:06 pm »

No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2012, 07:08:43 pm »

No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.


lololololololololol
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PR
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« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2012, 07:09:08 pm »

No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

trololol
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2012, 07:13:20 pm »

I don't think Obama will break 65% btw, but I think he will stay above or close to 60%. 
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2012, 07:16:29 pm »

Excessive hackery. On the offense. Replay third down.

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Sbane
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« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2012, 07:21:36 pm »

No, he will not. I think California will be about 16-17 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Even getting to 65% of the two party vote (with third parties it gets even harder to hit 65% and California tends to vote in higher numbers for third parties) would imply a 13-14 point Obama win. And if Obama does win that big, the biggest trends towards him will not be in California, but in other parts of the country.

With a roaring economy and a Santorum candidacy, it might be possible. Gingrich could probably achieve it though.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2012, 08:04:26 pm »

No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

The great expert on California politics has spoken!

Whitman wins, and it will be a GLORIOUS day for California.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #20 on: March 22, 2012, 08:13:53 pm »

Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart  Winfield
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R2D2
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« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2012, 08:14:22 pm »

No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2012, 08:23:33 pm »

These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Bear in mind that the two party percentage for Obama will be a point higher or so than his absolute percentage of the whole. My 57% to 58% CA percentage was of the whole. My guess as to the two party percentage in a skin tight national election would be a point higher - 58% to 59%. Each point counts in politics. Smiley

If California is a tossup, then of the two party percentage nationwide, Mittens would need to be winning the two party percentage by 58% to 59%. Add two more points to the Mittens national percentage, 61% to 62%, if he is going to get 52% of the two party vote in CA.  Not in this universe maybe, but you know there may be parallel universes out there. Just think of the possibilities!
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 08:51:58 pm by Torie »Logged
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2012, 09:04:43 pm »

No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

Ok, we have known for awhile that Winny the Fool was a troll but this is the icing on the cake. Then he has the nerve to call someone else a hack! A true masterpiece.
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jfern
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« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2012, 09:29:52 pm »

No
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