Will Obama break 65% in California?

[Torie]

My guess is that Obama will get around 57% (no trend) or 58% (slight Dem trend) in CA in a skin tight national election. The Torie vote will go against Obama, along maybe with some Jews and Silicon Valley types who are not otherwise part of the Torie vote, but the Hispanic vote will probably go up, and it will be a disaster for Mittens, fully offsetting the trend against him, or a bit more. I don't think Mittens will make much, if any, progress with Asians either.  That is my wild guess.  

Now, if Santorum were the nominee?  Ouch!  65% seems about spot on. It would be wipeout time in CA, and Pubs here might as well just close up shop.

[Torie]

These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Bear in mind that the two party percentage for Obama will be a point higher or so than his absolute percentage of the whole. My 57% to 58% CA percentage was of the whole. My guess as to the two party percentage in a skin tight national election would be a point higher - 58% to 59%. Each point counts in politics.

If California is a tossup, then of the two party percentage nationwide, Mittens would need to be winning the two party percentage by 58% to 59%. Add two more points to the Mittens national percentage, 61% to 62%, if he is going to get 52% of the two party vote in CA.  Not in this universe maybe, but you know there may be parallel universes out there. Just think of the possibilities!

[Torie]

The Torie vote will go against Obama, along maybe with some Jews and Silicon Valley types who are not otherwise part of the Torie vote

What are you seeing with the Silicon Valley vote? I can't find any reason voters here would turn against Obama in large numbers; Obama seems to me to be almost the perfect Democrat to win by enormous margins in the Bay Area. Certainly the economy isn't especially bad, at least when compared to a decade ago.

It if it existed, would be because they think Obama is bad in general for economic growth, and anti-business, and wants to tax them too much. Again, it would be more with the white vote up there, if at all.

[Torie]

OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

That's really not true at all:



That map is Tom Campbell's performance in the Republican primary for Senate. He received 17.36% of the vote in Orange County, falling well behind Carly Fiorina but also behind hard-right Chuck DeVore, an Orange County native. Orange County has always been a haven for far-right candidates and causes; in all the state, only Kern County rivals it in this respect.

The bulk of this within the same demographic is regionalism. Campbell was the hometown boy in the Bay area, and well known. He was invisible down south. But I did my bit. I gave him the max contribution. In addition, he was a college classmate of mine. We exchanged a couple of emails during his campaign. He's a truly nice guy - and of course, smart as a whip, except when it comes to getting out the whip on his opposition.

[Torie]

These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time.  

Just wondering, what sort of areas would you send Palin to in California? Like specific cities or neighborhoods. Also Thune to SF? Why?

Because he can tailor his message to his audience while still maintaining a decently exciting tone.  Palin would be sent to safe-red zones to drive up turnout.  Thune and possibly Palin are attractive to the everyman.  The only reason why Palin crashed and burned in 08 is because she didn't prep for 1-on-1s.  I would send Palin to Orange County and Ventura, particularly Thousand Oaks, Westlake, Agoura, etc., that general area.  Oxnard too.

Certain areas of Orange County maybe she would be fine. Simi Valley and Santa Clarita too. But you are wrong about Thousand Oaks and way off on Westlake and Agoura. She is the reason why they swung so hard against the Republicans. Well, her and Bush, but they come off similarly don't they as ignorant rural bumpkins. That's not going to play well in affluent suburbs. Come on now. On the whole Sarah Palin won't really really help anywhere in California except maybe the Central Valley.

Yes, in my neck of the woods, Palin is toxic. If Mittens doesn't want my vote, the quickest way to achieve that would be to put Palin on the ticket.  

If Palin is going to be let out of the closet at all, her wanderings should be limited to the fossil fuel belt. She can say "drill baby drill," in about 25 different ways, wrapped up in the American flag, patriotism, and freeing the shining city on the hill from all of those horrible folks abroad who have oil, most of which need be defunded, particularly all those nasty folks who hate Israel. Russia sucks too.  So in CA, she can go to Bakersfield, and maybe drive down to beautiful downtown Taft. Then she should get the F out, and head to western North Dakota, and then go to West Virginia, and maybe the fiighting 9th CD in Virginia, and then fly back to Wasila. I assume she won't be needed in TX and OK.

Oh, here is the view one can savor in Taft, a place untainted by "bad" people, who hate everything America stands for: