Who wins the Wisconsin Primary?

[Nichlemn]

The race will narrow after Wisconsin, then Romney will slowly start to pull away and will lead by around 10 points on Election Day. He wins by about 8, Santorum will claim victory as it "wasn't enough", and the race continues, though his support slightly decreases.

Something like this, although I expect a smaller Romney win. Media obsesses about how Romney perfomed WORSE THAN EXPECTATIONS!1! and how this might give Santorum BIG MO.

[Nichlemn]

I doubt Wisconsin will "wrap it up", but the fact of the matter is for a non-Romney to have a serious chance at winning, Wisconsin is the sort of state Romney needs to lose heavily in. It's a point Nate Silver made several times about Illinois - Santorum can't win by just moderately outperforming expectations.