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October 19, 2017, 04:19:40 am
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| | |-+  Honolulu County without 1st congressional district
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Author Topic: Honolulu County without 1st congressional district  (Read 182 times)
Ἅιδης
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« on: October 18, 2017, 03:36:27 am »
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Is Honolulu County beyond the boundaries of the 1st congressional district a Republican stronghold?
The district itself is heavily Democratic whereas the county is waaay more GOP-friendly than its neighbors. Are there many Republicans "hidden" on the island that were just to blind to see?

Is it even possible that Hillary Clinton won this area in both presidential caucuses?
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2017, 04:44:41 am »
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No. In fact there are no Republican strongholds in Hawaii. The State Senate is unanimously Democratic.
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2017, 05:44:10 am »
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No. In fact there are no Republican strongholds in Hawaii. The State Senate is unanimously Democratic.

I just checked the Republican members of the Hawaii State Legislature come from and I discovered that The Hawaii Senate doesn't have any GOP members (ROFL Grin) and there are seven Republicans in the Hawaii House of Representatives - all of whom represent places in the area in question. Do you know where the one Republican sate senator from the last legislature came from?

PS: Do you know where I can get CD-level results? I wanna calculate it myself.

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SamTilden2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2017, 07:00:22 am »
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No. In fact there are no Republican strongholds in Hawaii. The State Senate is unanimously Democratic.

I just checked the Republican members of the Hawaii State Legislature come from and I discovered that The Hawaii Senate doesn't have any GOP members (ROFL Grin) and there are seven Republicans in the Hawaii House of Representatives - all of whom represent places in the area in question. Do you know where the one Republican sate senator from the last legislature came from?

PS: Do you know where I can get CD-level results? I wanna calculate it myself.



The last one was Sam Slom of the 9th district, representing "Hawaiʻi Kai, ʻAina Haina, Waiʻalae-Kahala, Diamond Head", as per wikipedia.
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2017, 12:57:45 pm »
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I think Laie is marginal because it's heavily Mormon (home to BYU-Hawaii). Otherwise, as I recall, there were no McCain or Romney precincts in all of Hawaii. I doubt Trump won more than maybe a handful.

HI-01 isn't much more Democratic than the island as a whole. It was 63-30 Clinton while Honolulu County was 61-32 Clinton.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2017, 10:07:35 pm »
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I think Laie is marginal because it's heavily Mormon (home to BYU-Hawaii). Otherwise, as I recall, there were no McCain or Romney precincts in all of Hawaii. I doubt Trump won more than maybe a handful.

HI-01 isn't much more Democratic than the island as a whole. It was 63-30 Clinton while Honolulu County was 61-32 Clinton.

You'd better be careful with such assumptions.
Over 71% of Honolulu County's population lives in the 1st CD.
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Michael Bloomberg
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2017, 10:58:48 pm »
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I think Laie is marginal because it's heavily Mormon (home to BYU-Hawaii). Otherwise, as I recall, there were no McCain or Romney precincts in all of Hawaii. I doubt Trump won more than maybe a handful.

HI-01 isn't much more Democratic than the island as a whole. It was 63-30 Clinton while Honolulu County was 61-32 Clinton.

You'd better be careful with such assumptions.
Over 71% of Honolulu County's population lives in the 1st CD.
So that means Honolulu County outside 1st CD was just 56% Clinton and 37% Trump.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2017, 11:01:44 pm »
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I think Laie is marginal because it's heavily Mormon (home to BYU-Hawaii). Otherwise, as I recall, there were no McCain or Romney precincts in all of Hawaii. I doubt Trump won more than maybe a handful.

HI-01 isn't much more Democratic than the island as a whole. It was 63-30 Clinton while Honolulu County was 61-32 Clinton.

You'd better be careful with such assumptions.
Over 71% of Honolulu County's population lives in the 1st CD.
So that means Honolulu County outside 1st CD was just 56% Clinton and 37% Trump.

Where did you get the data from?
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Michael Bloomberg
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2017, 11:03:02 pm »
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I think Laie is marginal because it's heavily Mormon (home to BYU-Hawaii). Otherwise, as I recall, there were no McCain or Romney precincts in all of Hawaii. I doubt Trump won more than maybe a handful.

HI-01 isn't much more Democratic than the island as a whole. It was 63-30 Clinton while Honolulu County was 61-32 Clinton.

You'd better be careful with such assumptions.
Over 71% of Honolulu County's population lives in the 1st CD.
So that means Honolulu County outside 1st CD was just 56% Clinton and 37% Trump.

Where did you get the data from?
Just doing math assuming the county and CD numbers are correct.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2017, 11:13:01 pm »
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Ah, pity! I hoped I could calculate the data myself.
Especially the 2004 presidential election, the 2016 Democratic caucus and the 2014 gubernatorial election would be very interesting to analyze.
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Michael Bloomberg
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2017, 11:51:24 pm »
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Ah, pity! I hoped I could calculate the data myself.
Especially the 2004 presidential election, the 2016 Democratic caucus and the 2014 gubernatorial election would be very interesting to analyze.
I suggest you do those.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2017, 11:58:04 pm »
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Ah, pity! I hoped I could calculate the data myself.
Especially the 2004 presidential election, the 2016 Democratic caucus and the 2014 gubernatorial election would be very interesting to analyze.
I suggest you do those.

I'd do it if I had the district data.
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