PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Romney wipes out Santorum's lead

[Tender Branson]

30% Santorum
28% Romney

"In February, Santorum led Romney 45% to 16% , the poll said."

No numbers for Paul and Gingrich in the press report.

The poll surveyed 505 Pennsylvania Republican registered voters and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Santorum did best in central and western Pennsylvania and Romney polled better in the southeastern and northeastern parts of the state. Almost a quarter of voters polled said they were undecided.

http://www.lfpress.com/news/world/2012/03/28/19559046.html

[Tender Branson]

How reliable are they with polling?

F&M was really bad in 2010, they predicted Toomey by 8 and Corbett by 16. Toomey won by only 2 and Corbett by 9 or so.

In 2008, 2006 and 2004 though they were really good, predicting Hillary by 8 (she won by 9), Obama by 13 (he won by 11).

In 2006, they had Casey winning by 15 (he won by 17) and in 2004 they had Kerry winning by 5 (he won by 3).

[Tender Branson]

Was it their poll also that had Santorum leading 45-16? Because that's great news for Romney if he turned a 29 point lead for Santorum into a 2 point lead for Santorum in a matter of a month.

Yes:

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb12_1.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Just found the complete results of the new poll:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/images/video/2012_pdfs/0328stgpoll.pdf