The Great Korea Thread

[politicus]

For all things Korean - North and South.

At the moment there is some North Korean stuff in the China GD thread and it should be moved
The two North Korea threads about the regime's possible collapse and it's unusual execution methods could also be put here.

[politicus]

Yesterday, Kim Jong-Un gave a 20 minute speech.

Wouldn't be shocking in most places, but Kim's dad Kim Jong-Il didn't give a single speech in his 17 years running North Korea.

He once said "Glory to the Peoples Army" but that was it.

It dependens how you define a speech. He often visited factories and collective farms and gave "advice" to the workers - sometimes in the form of peptalks.

[politicus]

I doubt the Chinese will accept mass exodus. They will probably shut the border again, if refugees start coming in huge numbers. But if they don't, this could potentially be the "beginning of the end" for the regime.

[politicus]

I doubt the Chinese will accept mass exodus. They will probably shut the border again, if refugees start coming in huge numbers. But if they don't, this could potentially be the end for the regime.

I think this decision was driven by the internal power struggle within the Chinese Politburo and not out of any particular humanitarian concerns.

That's obvious. Unsure what your point is? Do you support my view that they will shut the border again if the refugees start coming in large numbers or ...

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Nah, but we do know that living conditions are pretty horrible, which is always a powerfull motivator for human action. The regime is also not able to shut out all info to the degree they used to do.

[politicus]

So we basically agree that the Chinese will shut the border if things start to get serious. Just didn't understand the "not out of humanitarian concerns" remark. It was pretty weird in this context since no-one in their right mind would argue that the Chinese regime does anything out of humanitarian concerns.

Regarding info level I think its pretty obvious, that NK is not nearly as secluded as it used to be. I cant currently find the references I am looking for, so Ill just quote our "resident Korea expert" seanobr from the North Korean Collapse thread.

"With respect to the question of ideological indoctrination, the foundation of the state is already being penetrated by hallyu, the proliferation of outside media, increasing personal interaction with China, cynicism engendered by the government's dysfunction, and the D.P.R.K.'s own attempt to embrace technology, such as the Orascom mobile network. How the information gleaned from such experience will interact with the perception of North Korean reality is entirely subjective.  On the one hand, there is probably a degree of self-selection, in that those who communicate regularly with the South and dance along the Chinese border are not illustrative of broader D.P.R.K. society; at the same time, the North's narrative of injustice, the memory of Kim Il-sung, Korean nationalism, and America's own role in the division of the peninsula still can be an extremely poignant combination. By tolerating the jangmadang, the North has tacitly accepted that its writ is no longer incontrovertible, and since I believe the state will never resurrect its command economy, the deterioration can only continue and even accelerate".

To be fair, his analysis continues:

"The issue, however, is not exposure to the outside in and of itself, but whether it will ever become actionable -- the potential for discontent and antipathy targeted at the current regime to manifest given the proper context, and that is unknowable, which is why I wouldn't formulate foreign policy with it in mind. The North's complete suppression of civil society and extreme social regimentation make the coordination required for an organic movement to extend itself nearly impossible, its manipulation of ideology is unparalleled, and a credible argument can be made that almost everyone in a position of substantial influence has a reason to preserve the state. Authoritarian rule is inherently fragile, but it can be sustainable".  

I am not sure I agree 100% with his evaluation. I think testimonys from refugees from NK show a high level of discontent with the regime, which could translate into spontaneous acts of desperation such as a huge wave of refugees trying to escape the country. But of course the views of refugees are far from unbiased.

The fact that the regime has proved so stable over time seems to convince everybody, that NK will stay the same forever, but the fact is that even NK is not immune to the effects of globalization.
Change is far from given, but not nearly as unlikely as most people tend to assume.'

Regarding SK popculture in NK see: http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=8112

[politicus]

Activists from South Korea sends balloons carrying anti-regime pamphlets across the border. Norks are pissed and threatens to stop talks with South Korea.

The defector-led group Fighters for Free North Korea released 200,000 leaflets condemning the regime encased in helium-buoyed balloons.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/25/north-korea-condemns-anti-government-leaflets

[politicus]

Did he show up? Doesn't seem like it...

No. "An official state media dispatch listed senior government, military and party officials who paid their respects at the ceremony, but not Kim." He would have been on it, if he was present.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/kim-jongun-misses-workers-party-event-amid-rumours-north-korean-leader-has-been-deposed-9786422.html

[politicus]

According to KCNA Kim Jong-un has just visited a research center and a housing estate, if true that would be his first public appearance in three weeks.

[politicus]

Here is a link to New Focus International, the site run by high ranking defector Jang Jin-sung, who claims OGD has taken over.

http://newfocusintl.com/

[politicus]

Perhaps Kim Jong-un's biggest obstacle was the fact he never got time to build his own power base. When Kim Jong-il came to power, there was a lot of scepticism and predictions he won't hold onto it, but he was very busy consolidating his position during his period as designated successor.

Of course, Kim Jong-il had twenty years for this, while his son was too young and hadn't been selected until a few years before his father's death.

And Kim Jong-Il didn't have the OGD to deal with.

[politicus]

South Korea now has a contingency plan of economic reforms to be implemented in case of Korean unification.

If it happens South Korean tax payers are in for a nightmare. BRD was 2-3 richer than DDR. South Korea is 14-30 times richer than North Korea depending on how you count. The largest wealth gap between two countries with a shared border.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/11/dream-korean-unification-2014111565039906410.html

[politicus]

What would be preferable for South Korea, if they had a choice: a North Korea publicly seeking reunification on the South's terms, or a North Korean puppet state that remains independent but the South controls behind the scenes?

Option two, but I don't even think they care that much about controlling it. Any scenario in which North Korea would remain stable after a regime change, open its borders and economy and develop gradually on its own terms would be preferable to getting the responsibility after a collapse.

[politicus]

Putting a price tag on unification: "Around 500 billion $"

http://news.yahoo.com/korea-puts-economic-unification-tab-500-billion-031557279.html

[politicus]

The most likely regime "change" in North Korea is a military takeover with a Burma style social order. In this case South Korean conglomerates would invest and be quite influential , but the government would still be very adverse to outright Southern political interference.

[politicus]

South Korea's dark descent back into authoritarianism continues.

That's worrying (and also stupid, since it's such a small and unimportant party). Your headline is hyperbolic (as usual), but the human rights situation is definitely getting worse.

[politicus]

They got 10% in the last parliamentary election; hardly minor.

In the grand scheme of things it is not a party that could "threaten" the South Korean established order. They have a limited electoral potential (among other things because they are too "Nork-friendly").

[politicus]

I suppose South Korea is now at BRD post-1956, pre-Willy Brandt democracy level. Not authoritarian, but not really a full democracy either and the reasons for banning those guys are far less reasonable than the arguments behind the Cold War ban on the KPD.

[politicus]

99.97% turnout in the North Korean local elections. The Norks truly are world leaders in get out the vote operations!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/20/north-korean-elections-draw-9997-turnout-says-state-media

[politicus]

NK celebrates the 70th birthday of the Workers' Party of Korea. Time to retire... (nah, but one can dream).



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11921914/North-Korea-gears-up-for-70th-anniversary-of-Workers-Party-in-pictures.html