Quinnipiac: Obama leads in key states of FL, OH & PA

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA: Obama 49 - Romney 42; Obama 50 - Santorum 37

Florida voters give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and say 50 - 47 percent he deserves to be reelected.

Florida voters disapprove 52 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing, continuing his year-long streak of negative ratings.

...

OHIO: Obama 47 - Romney 41; Obama 47 - Santorum 40

Ohio voters also give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and split 48 - 48 percent on whether he deserves to be reelected.

Ohio voters split 42 - 42 percent in their approval of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago.

...

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45 - Romney 42; Obama 48 - Santorum 41

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job Obama is doing, still negative but his best score in recent surveys, and say 50 - 46 percent he does not deserve to be reelected.

Gov. Tom Corbett gets a 41 - 38 percent job approval rating.

...

From March 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

    1,228 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
    1,246 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
    1,232 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1727

[Gustaf]

That seems obviously internally inconsistent. No way is FL Obama +4 relative to PA.

[Person Man]

Well, the Governor in Pennsylvania that surfed on a huge wave of hate on the cesspool of American Politics to victory in 2010 (and hence a butthole surfer) is more popular than the other two governors in Ohio and Florida that did the same, you see and that left a bad taste in the electorate's mouth.

Put otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised if Romney wins at least one of these states, its Pennsylvania.

[Tender Branson]

Re-weighting the crosstabs to 2008 exit poll numbers doesn't change that much. Pennsylvania is still the most competetive state, mostly because Romney leads Obama by 1 point among Independents there, while Obama leads Romney among Indies in the other 2 states:

Florida: 50-43 Obama/Romney

Ohio: 50-41 Obama/Romney

Pennsylvania: 47-42 Obama/Romney

[Tender Branson]

That seems obviously internally inconsistent. No way is FL Obama +4 relative to PA.

Maybe the fact that Romney+SuperPAC are now in the process of blanketing PA with ads plays a role ?

Maybe the PA posters know more about this, if Romney really runs a lot of ads there right now.

Maybe if the primary is over like in OH and FL, PA moves back to a Obama by 5-10 lead.

[Eraserhead]

FL>OH>PA for Obama?

That would be a complete reversal of 2008. Pretty hard to believe, but who knows...

[MaxQue]

I think Tender is right. It's the primary effect in PA. They get lots of attention from Republicans right now, while none of Democrats.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I think this really shows that Santorum shouldn't be the nominee.  He performs worse in his home state than Romney.  Romney won't win, but he'll come closer than Santorum would.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entries:

FL: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220120326015
OH: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920120326015
PA: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220120326015

[Keystone Phil]

I think this really shows that Santorum shouldn't be the nominee.  He performs worse in his home state than Romney.  Romney won't win, but he'll come closer than Santorum would.

Oh, ok so based on that logic, the selling point is: "Romney will waste more of our money on a state he won't win." Great!

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I think this really shows that Santorum shouldn't be the nominee.  He performs worse in his home state than Romney.  Romney won't win, but he'll come closer than Santorum would.

Oh, ok so based on that logic, the selling point is: "Romney will waste more of our money on a state he won't win." Great!

You still have a downballot effect.  When the MI GOP decided to take their inner feud public and released that McCain was dropping his active campaign in Michigan, people stayed home because they didn't care anymore, and I think that led to Tim Walberg losing his Congressional seat.  Thankfully he won it back in 2010, but when you have a weak top candidate, downballot races suffer.

[pbrower2a]

I think this really shows that Santorum shouldn't be the nominee.  He performs worse in his home state than Romney.  Romney won't win, but he'll come closer than Santorum would.

Oh, ok so based on that logic, the selling point is: "Romney will waste more of our money on a state he won't win." Great!

You still have a downballot effect.  When the MI GOP decided to take their inner feud public and released that McCain was dropping his active campaign in Michigan, people stayed home because they didn't care anymore, and I think that led to Tim Walberg losing his Congressional seat.  Thankfully he won it back in 2010, but when you have a weak top candidate, downballot races suffer.

Walberg? The guy is a simply a carpetbagger for out-of-state interests. I live in "his" district, and I know him all too well. If you are not a member of one of his core constituencies you do not count in "his" district. 

[Ben Romney]

Looks likePA is more winnable for Romney as OH

it`s not possible that in the Senate race both candidates are tied and for the presidential level it`s a blowout. But OH is defenetily in play and now doubt Obama leads there at the moment. The R`s of the state are hurting there and OH is a twin of the national level so it`s 50/50 today I think!

I see nothing but good news in these polls. Before the R`s even united behind a candidate and started full force into Obama he’s already in the 40`s in these states.

 Obama won so narrowly in 2008 so it` impossible with his negative numbers there and on the national stage to be ahead that far. he he wins FL in Nov he would win within 1% like last time and it he would be over 50% approval in every single poll on national stage. It`s a left university poll so what!

[Keystone Phil]

I think this really shows that Santorum shouldn't be the nominee.  He performs worse in his home state than Romney.  Romney won't win, but he'll come closer than Santorum would.

Oh, ok so based on that logic, the selling point is: "Romney will waste more of our money on a state he won't win." Great!

You still have a downballot effect.  When the MI GOP decided to take their inner feud public and released that McCain was dropping his active campaign in Michigan, people stayed home because they didn't care anymore, and I think that led to Tim Walberg losing his Congressional seat.  Thankfully he won it back in 2010, but when you have a weak top candidate, downballot races suffer.

Romney will hurt us more in downballot races out west and areas around me. Thanks.

[Reds4]

I find it hard to believe that Romney will end up doing better in PA than Ohio... PA always teases the GOP... Ohio is a true swing state.

Looks likePA is more winnable for Romney as OH

it`s not possible that in the Senate race both candidates are tied and for the presidential level it`s a blowout. But OH is defenetily in play and now doubt Obama leads there at the moment. The R`s of the state are hurting there and OH is a twin of the national level so it`s 50/50 today I think!

I see nothing but good news in these polls. Before the R`s even united behind a candidate and started full force into Obama he’s already in the 40`s in these states.

 Obama won so narrowly in 2008 so it` impossible with his negative numbers there and on the national stage to be ahead that far. he he wins FL in Nov he would win within 1% like last time and it he would be over 50% approval in every single poll on national stage. It`s a left university poll so what!

[pbrower2a]

Looks likePA is more winnable for Romney as OH

it`s not possible that in the Senate race both candidates are tied and for the presidential level it`s a blowout. But OH is defenetily in play and now doubt Obama leads there at the moment. The R`s of the state are hurting there and OH is a twin of the national level so it`s 50/50 today I think!

I see nothing but good news in these polls. Before the R`s even united behind a candidate and started full force into Obama he’s already in the 40`s in these states.

 Obama won so narrowly in 2008 so it` impossible with his negative numbers there and on the national stage to be ahead that far. he he wins FL in Nov he would win within 1% like last time and it he would be over 50% approval in every single poll on national stage. It`s a left university poll so what!

1. At this stage 44% approval gives about a 50-50 chance of winning to the 'average' incumbent. Challengers can carp at will while the incumbent governs or legislates and must take polarizing stances. The average incumbent gains about 6% from approval rating to vote share in a binary contest. Eventually the challengers get pinned down on issues of public policy. Most incumbents show why they were elected to begin with. Most were better-than-average campaigners.

The contrast is with politicians appointed to elected offices due to a resignation or death. Appointed officials never won the office and are often new at campaigning for the office.  Appointed pols have a poor track record of winning.

2. The Republicans running for President may already be in collapse mode. They must appease the Tea Party types, which might not look so good in November. President Obama has no ties to extreme positions this time.

3. It is still bad form to judge the effectiveness of President Obama... but such objective evidence as exists suggests that he is a stronger incumbent than Dubya -- who won.