Quinnipiac: Obama leads in key states of FL, OH & PA (user search)
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  Quinnipiac: Obama leads in key states of FL, OH & PA (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Obama leads in key states of FL, OH & PA  (Read 1519 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: March 28, 2012, 10:18:42 AM »

FLORIDA: Obama 49 - Romney 42; Obama 50 - Santorum 37

Florida voters give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and say 50 - 47 percent he deserves to be reelected.

Florida voters disapprove 52 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing, continuing his year-long streak of negative ratings.

...

OHIO: Obama 47 - Romney 41; Obama 47 - Santorum 40

Ohio voters also give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and split 48 - 48 percent on whether he deserves to be reelected.

Ohio voters split 42 - 42 percent in their approval of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago.

...

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45 - Romney 42; Obama 48 - Santorum 41

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job Obama is doing, still negative but his best score in recent surveys, and say 50 - 46 percent he does not deserve to be reelected.

Gov. Tom Corbett gets a 41 - 38 percent job approval rating.

...

From March 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

    1,228 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
    1,246 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
    1,232 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1727
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2012, 10:49:43 AM »

Re-weighting the crosstabs to 2008 exit poll numbers doesn't change that much. Pennsylvania is still the most competetive state, mostly because Romney leads Obama by 1 point among Independents there, while Obama leads Romney among Indies in the other 2 states:

Florida: 50-43 Obama/Romney

Ohio: 50-41 Obama/Romney

Pennsylvania: 47-42 Obama/Romney
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2012, 11:17:46 AM »

That seems obviously internally inconsistent. No way is FL Obama +4 relative to PA.

Maybe the fact that Romney+SuperPAC are now in the process of blanketing PA with ads plays a role ?

Maybe the PA posters know more about this, if Romney really runs a lot of ads there right now.

Maybe if the primary is over like in OH and FL, PA moves back to a Obama by 5-10 lead.
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