Looks likePA is more winnable for Romney as OH
it`s not possible that in the Senate race both candidates are tied and for the presidential level it`s a blowout. But OH is defenetily in play and now doubt Obama leads there at the moment. The R`s of the state are hurting there and OH is a twin of the national level so it`s 50/50 today I think!
I see nothing but good news in these polls. Before the R`s even united behind a candidate and started full force into Obama he’s already in the 40`s in these states.
Obama won so narrowly in 2008 so it` impossible with his negative numbers there and on the national stage to be ahead that far. he he wins FL in Nov he would win within 1% like last time and it he would be over 50% approval in every single poll on national stage. It`s a left university poll so what!
1. At this stage 44% approval gives about a 50-50 chance of winning to the 'average' incumbent. Challengers can carp at will while the incumbent governs or legislates and must take polarizing stances. The average incumbent gains about 6% from approval rating to vote share in a binary contest. Eventually the challengers get pinned down on issues of public policy. Most incumbents show why they were elected to begin with. Most were better-than-average campaigners.
The contrast is with politicians appointed to elected offices due to a resignation or death. Appointed officials never won the office and are often new at campaigning for the office. Appointed pols have a poor track record of winning.
2. The Republicans running for President may already be in collapse mode. They must appease the Tea Party types, which might not look so good in November. President Obama has no ties to extreme positions this time.
3. It is still bad form to judge the effectiveness of President Obama... but such objective evidence as exists suggests that he is a stronger incumbent than Dubya -- who won.
