The Republican Vice-Presidential Spectulation Thread.

[Brittain33]

Romney is facing his demise by the gender gap in the general election. He'll be fine with conservatives but can't be seen to be doubling down on the War on Women when it has already cost him support he needs to defeat Obama. Petraeus get him nothing, even if he were interested. Culture warriors with solid credentials won't fit the ticket.

I agree with the above poster, Romney is going to go with a game changer. If his experience in Mass is any guide, he's more likely to go with obscure-but-safe than high profile but risky.

[Brittain33]

Linda Chavez? She had a fumbled Cabinet nom in '01.

[Brittain33]

What about Eric Cantor?

Virginia is going to be to Romney what Ohio was to Kerry. He simply can't win without it, but he has to fight to win it based on the polling right now. He also has to assume he's winning Florida and probably Ohio.

Eric Cantor secures the conservative base, potentially helps in Va (I'm skeptical, but this is how things go), and offers a flanking motion in Florida where many older voters aren't sold on Obama in the first place and his being Jewish would help. He's media-tested, young enough, and ambitious. He doesn't do anything for Ohio, but an Ohio pick wouldn't do anything in the other states.

Yes, he's from Congress, but Romney is going to be weighed down regardless. What do you think?  

[Brittain33]

Uh, no. Just no.

Why not?

Here's an article where he offers fulsome praise of Romney where others have been more cautious. Of course he rules himself out and talks up McDonnell, but he has to.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75349.html

[Brittain33]

First of all, Cantor's approval rating is underwater in Virginia itself. IIRC the number was something like 49-33 unfavorable. So forget helping Romney there.

I'd want to see that. I'd think he's not that well known outside of his district and the Beltway.

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Agreed. But I think that people still want to believe it's true or will be scared to pass up the chance.

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He's rock solid with the conservative base and commentariat (so are others under consideration, like Portman and McDonnell, but then people like Rubio and Martinez have their deviations or are untested) and loved by many of them for his fight, which the others haven't proven yet. His being Jewish is a novelty factor that could help in S. Florida as well, as well as piling up wasted votes in former NY-9 and parts of NJ with older Jews.

[Brittain33]

It looks like we'll have to agree to disagree here.

That's fine. I don't exactly have my finger to the pulse of Republican or swing voter opinion.

[Brittain33]

All "recent" VP nominees whose highest office was Congressman(woman):

Geraldine Ferraro (1984, D)
William Miller (1964, R)

Well, that's not promising for Cantor now, is it.

You could count Jack Kemp for rep being his highest elected office but he was more of an elder statesman by the time he was chosen.