April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread

[Torie]

Early voting numbers from MD:

http://www.elections.state.md.us/press_room/documents/PP12/EarlyVoting/Statewide.pdf

Given many more voted in the Dem primary, I don't see many Dems voting in the GOP primary from the early voters.

[Torie]

Well the CNN exit poll has Mittens up over Santorum by about 7-8 points, so Rick is giving his speech early - before Wisconsin is called. And he gives the same speech he has been giving. Mittens is just not that different than Obama - and then he engages in an exercise in the "new math" with the delegate count, that somehow if he "wins" PA, and with TX coming up (where the demographics per Sean Trende are about the same as Wisconsin (actually a 45 in Texas versus a 43 for Wisconsin for the Mittens 3 candidate share). Whatever. I have Mittens getting a majority with about a 25 delegate pad before supers not yet committed fall, assuming Mittens gets only a third of the delegates both PA and TX, and he should get more - a lot more in TX if the Trende model holds.

Meanwhile if the exit polls are right, the Sean Trende demographic model is spot on - again; Mittens up about 4 points over the 3 candidate split because of the Newt implosion. Ditto, Maryland although Gingrich got 11% in the exit poll, so there part of it is a Santorum erosion in his base there perhaps. Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose.

[Torie]

Now CNN calls Wisconsin for Mittens, so they must have confidence in the exit poll, that Mittens has a solid pad. If Rick gets more than two CD's in Wisconsin, it will be very surprising. We shall see if those Madison Dems managed to make a run on WI-02.

[Torie]

Rick surprisingly is making a good run for WI-08 with a lot of votes in. So he may get 9 delegates rather than 6. Boo!  I was confident about this one, with this kind of margin statewide for Mittens.

[Torie]

Rick seems to be winning WI-8 pretty handily and that was not one of the two CDs he was supposed to win.

So it would seem. Using the Huckabee vote as a proxy just didn't work for WI-08.

Meanwhile the Dems were busy in Madison - but probably not busy enough to tip WI-02 to Rick. Dem troublemakers seem not to be much in evidence elsewhere in the CD.

[Torie]

[Torie]

how is the CD 6 doing?

It is not in real play for one rather decisive reason:

[Torie]

Rick seems to be winning WI-8 pretty handily and that was not one of the two CDs he was supposed to win.

So it would seem. Using the Huckabee vote as a proxy just didn't work for WI-08.

Meanwhile the Dems were busy in Madison - but probably not busy enough to tip WI-02 to Rick. Dem troublemakers seem not to be much in evidence elsewhere in the CD.

Oddly enough, as you guys were arguing over whether or not the rural areas would be enough to swing WI-2 to Santorum, it seems the rural areas will be swinging it to Romney

... Absent Dem mischief, and Madison was mischief central, bless them. They know when and where to kick the Pubs in the nuts, and do it every chance they can. I kind of admire them.   I mean, the turnout in Dane in a Pub primary is just ridiculously large - or so it would appear. Cinyc can set me straight if I am winging it here.

[Torie]

Mittens margin above Rick jumped by 67 at least, without taking into account the RNC members.

The rest of the month, the only potential gains are MO, PA and DE.  Both PA and MO are questionable, even with a beauty contest win.

Well, Rick's campaign spokesman said if Rick wins PA (with delegates following the popular vote) and TX, he will secure the nomination. So who are we to question that? Does TX have about 350 delegates at stake, and is the Sean Trende Mittens 45 number BS?  If so, suddenly the math might work - if everything else between now and the end "works" too for Rick.

[Torie]

yawn

You tried to tell us, Sam! You really did!

Quick on the trigger tonight, aren't we?

Of more import, is that I was off in my projection for Mittens delegates tonight by 3 delegates, or maybe even 6, and I was just so confident. That sucks.

[Torie]

So, with Wisconsin decided, it is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt that Gordon Gecko is the undisputed nominee of the Republican Party.

Be proud, Republicans.    

You pick the best out of what is available. Actually I would prefer someone even more boring than Mittens - Portman. I get my excitement out of life from places elsewhere than from out of a politician's mouth. I like calm, quiet and cerebral politicians myself - all 10 of them or so out there on the fruited plain.

[Torie]

yawn

You tried to tell us, Sam! You really did!

Quick on the trigger tonight, aren't we?

Of more import, is that I was off in my projection for Mittens delegates tonight by 3 delegates, or maybe even 6, and I was just so confident. That sucks.

You can't compare the performance of a Southern social conservative vs. a Northern social conservative generally.  Additionally, McCain's support is not coterminous with Romney's support, and a certain section of the Republican base stopped paying attention a long time ago, which distorts things.

Yes, I know, and I try to "correct" for that, but in this case, my "correction" failed - miserably.

[Torie]

yawn

You tried to tell us, Sam! You really did!

Quick on the trigger tonight, aren't we?

Of more import, is that I was off in my projection for Mittens delegates tonight by 3 delegates, or maybe even 6, and I was just so confident. That sucks.

Actually, given that Green has just reported (and, considering the content of this report) it might, indeed, be 6.

I think it will come down to how the vote splits in Rock.

As to WI-02, this County might decide it. And the Rock margin for Mittens (about 8 points so far) given the skin tight numbers elsewhere, seems to me to be pretty decisive absent an Iowa Mittens implosion. Rock by the way was where the GOP was founded in 1855 or whatever - in Ripon (the GOP was founded as a Yankee enterprise). It's a Yankee county in a state dominated by Germans and Scandinavians, and as a Yankee county, like most Yankee places, has trended Dem in the last two decades as the South came to have far more influence in the GOP.

[Torie]

I wonder how much influence Ryan had in all of this. In his homeland, I suspect he is rather intensely admired among Pubs, and Mittens just romped in WI-01 - and perhaps beyond his borders to the Milwaukee metro area as a whole. Absent that, the numbers for WI as a whole might have been really tight. This is one case where an endorsement from someone who has a lot of real substance upstairs, may have been a substantial influence. I wonder how much the media will pick up on this aspect.

[Torie]

As to WI-02, this County might decide it. And the Rock margin for Mittens (about 8 points so far) given the skin tight numbers elsewhere, seems to me to be pretty decisive absent an Iowa Mittens implosion. Rock by the way was where the GOP was founded in 1855 or whatever - in Ripon (the GOP was founded as a Yankee enterprise). It's a Yankee county in a state dominated by Germans and Scandinavians, and as a Yankee county, like most Yankee places, has trended Dem in the last two decades as the South came to have far more influence in the GOP.

This is all right except Ripon is in Fond du Lac county.

Oh dear! I hate when "facts" degrade a good narrative!    Anyway, Rock is Yankee land. I know I have that one right.

[Torie]

Does anywhere care to explain this lacunae? I mean, I understand how Dane swung its way, but Eau Claire swinging the other way, with Huckabee voters going Mittens in large numbers in Huck's premier county?  Why?

[Torie]

Ryan was clearly the most enthusiastic backer of the past two weeks and I am certain that helped somewhat, but I don't think it was what did it. I almost pity what Santorum is going to face over the next 24 days until his home state votes. Its clear the party is going to try to call this thing.

Will Santorum picked up any delegates from Maryand?

Mittens won everything in MD.

[Torie]

What is Iowa's problem? Are they withholding there votes Chicago style until it is known how many votes are "required?" Are they a caucus county, and the Paulites shut it down?  And why is the county named Iowa, when that tribe was in Iowa?  Why?

[Torie]

This of course is my most favorite county in the United States. It's personal - despite its politics.

[Torie]

Well F Iowa County. I am tired of waiting. It has no real vote potential anyway. Rick gets 9 delegates tonight - 3 more than my near "certain" prediction. WI-08 went nutter, and defied all my models -without my permission. I will always root for any team playing against the Packers from here on out. They play in a bad place, because they don't fit my model up there. Maybe they vote  in accordance with random ordered chaos theory, which only Muon2 could understand - certainly not I. It is one region that I understand the least, and I admit it.

[Torie]

Iowa has spoken. Mittens by 4 votes. So now we know.

[Torie]