PA-Muhlenberg: Obama with a moderate lead

[ajb]

Isn't being at 45 a bad sign for Obama?  It isn't like he doesn't have name recognition.  Undecideds tend to break 75to25 or more against an incumbent in the last several months.   

Exactly how President Kerry won in 2004.

[ajb]

Bush was ahead of were Obama is in most key indicators and everyone keeps acting like Obama is like Clinton (triangulating, moderating, centrist-ish)... he isn't.   

Romney's also behind where Kerry was.

[ajb]

Kerry's primary was over much quicker.  New Hampshire basically ended it.  Obviously the challenger will strengthen now that the general started yesterday. 

Romney was already in near-record unfavorability territory by the end of January, so you can't entirely blame the primary for that.
Actually, Romney's the one who should be trying to take a page from Clinton's book -- a challenger running against an incumbent in tough economic times, whose unfavorability provides the only precedent for Romney's. Of course, Bill Clinton was unpopular because he slept around, and won the election by feeling people's pain. Romney's unpopular because he's rich and aloof and awkward. "Understanding the problems of people like you" is Romney's Achilles heel.

[ajb]

Unfavorability #'s on Romney are probably soft because many republicans are/were unsold or uncertain on his true social positions and the 'Romneycare vs Obamacare' thing.  That stuff is probably a bonus in the general.     

Actually, his really lethal favorability numbers are with independents.

[ajb]

Because Romney is competent.  If you want government to do more, than Romney is your guy because he is a technocratic machine of efficiency.  If you want government to cost less than Romney is your guy because he isn't a radical ideologue hell bent on spending the country into oblivion.  Understanding that COST has to be weighed against BENEFIT isn't a revolutionary concept, but only one party has shown an ability to acknowledge it... or pass a budget for that matter.

HINT: it's not the Republicans.

[ajb]

GOP = passed a serious budget through the house
Dem s = no budget for 3 years


GOP = growing economy, profitable businesses, jobs
Dem s = flat-line economy, demagog business, ZERO jobs

GOP = against failed 800billion stimulus package that created ZERO jobs and exploded debt  
Dem s = In favor of worst government spending package in the history of the country

I think I could create ONE job if I pilled up 5 TRILLION of Debt

Obama's private-sector job creation record at this stage in his presidency is actually better than GWB's was. The overall job numbers are worse because so many public-sector jobs have been eliminated under Obama, whereas Bush II presided over a massive increase in the public-sector workforce.