NV: Public Policy Polling: Obama by 8 in Nevada
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  NV: Public Policy Polling: Obama by 8 in Nevada
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Author Topic: NV: Public Policy Polling: Obama by 8 in Nevada  (Read 2133 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: April 04, 2012, 03:44:33 PM »

New Poll: Nevada President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-04-01

Summary: D: 51%, R: 43%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2012, 04:05:45 PM »


I'm going to figure that many Obama voters have left Nevada since 2008 for places with better opportunities. They have likely gone elsewhere (Arizona?) without becoming more sympathetic to the GOP.   President Obama will still win the state but not by as overwhelming margin as in 2008.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2012, 04:22:38 PM »

this poll sounds right to me its a D+4 in 2008 NV was D+8
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argentarius
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2012, 04:38:59 PM »

Sounds like Nevada is in line with other swing states.
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2012, 06:55:20 PM »

Yeah. I'll go with that. Nevada will probably go the same way that Colorado went...then again, Obama didn't poll nearly as well as his results were. Who knows, right? A lot of people who could have moved might not have been able to afford to move to Arizona. In fact, Arizona is just as big of a shit canoe as Nevada is. Maybe Cali?
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Klecly
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2012, 07:00:43 PM »

I say this poll is pretty much on the mark.


I say in November Obama wins Nevada 53% rto 45%. Only a 3% improvement for Repubs (from 55% to 42% Obama in '08)

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5280
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2012, 07:01:36 PM »

Ask yourself this question?

Does the GOP need Nevada to win the election?
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King
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2012, 07:07:32 PM »

Ask yourself this question?  Okay.

Does the GOP need Nevada to win the election?  Yes.
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argentarius
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2012, 07:10:19 PM »

Does the GOP need Nevada? Probably not. If the GOP doesn't win Nevada will they win the election? I highly, highly doubt it. Nevada should be on the road to 270 for the GOP.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2012, 09:07:11 PM »

Without Nevada, Romney is pretty much stuck with eithe Pennsylvania or New Hampshire and if he can win those, we will probably win Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado and maybe New Mexico, Minnesota, ME-2 and New Jersey.
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5280
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« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2012, 10:42:50 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2012, 10:48:51 PM by RockyIce »

Hypothetically, If Romney wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, then he doesn't need Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.  He'll have to win Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Indiana though to cover his loses.

Besides that, a 5% shift in the REP favor sounds about right.  If that's true for all the swing states, then Romney wins Colorado 49%, Obama 48%.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2012, 11:09:38 PM »

I'm going to figure that many Obama voters have left Nevada since 2008 for places with better opportunities.

Not just Obama voters.  Little Boxes Suburbia emptied out too.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2012, 11:58:55 AM »

Ask yourself this question?

Does the GOP need Nevada to win the election?

Only if the difference without Nevada is somewhere between 266 and 269 electoral votes for the republican nominee. If President Obama wins any one of Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia. 
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ajb
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« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2012, 12:27:16 PM »

Ask yourself this question?

Does the GOP need Nevada to win the election?
I think the bottom line is that the Republicans need to win far more of the competitive states than the Democrats do in order to win the election.
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