2012

[Del Tachi]

The Republicans will pick up the Senate whethere Obama is re-elected or not.  The Democrats just simply have too many seats to defend and too small of a majority currently. 

The GOP only needs four pick-ups for 51 seats.  They've already pretty much locked up three:  ND, NE and MT.  So that means they have to manage a pick-up somewhere between HI, NM, MO, WI, FL or VA.  Maine and Massachusetts will be Republican holds.  King will be elected in Maine and will caucus with the GOP and Warren does not fair to well with Massachusetts Dems outside of Harvard Yard, never mind that she will be every Super PACs number one target.

Also, even though they aren't now, I bet the races in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan become more competitive as the election draws nearer.  These swing states will have produce a good race. 

With these factors, I do not see how any reasonable person can reject the idea of Senator McConnell being elected Majority Leader come January. 

[Del Tachi]

Montana is far from a lock I don't know where you are getting that from...

I voted Option #1.

Montana is a conservative state that barely elected Tester in 2006.  Obama being at the top of the ticket in this state is not going to help any Democrat in the state.  Additionally, the DSCC would much rather divert resources to McCaskill, Kaine or Nelson (FL) over Tester because Tester is an unabashed supporter of Keystone XL. 

Rheberg wins in MT with close to 55% of the vote.