The Republicans will pick up the Senate whethere Obama is re-elected or not. The Democrats just simply have too many seats to defend and too small of a majority currently.
The GOP only needs four pick-ups for 51 seats. They've already pretty much locked up three: ND, NE and MT. So that means they have to manage a pick-up somewhere between HI, NM, MO, WI, FL or VA. Maine and Massachusetts will be Republican holds. King will be elected in Maine and will caucus with the GOP and Warren does not fair to well with Massachusetts Dems outside of Harvard Yard, never mind that she will be every Super PACs number one target.
Also, even though they aren't now, I bet the races in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan become more competitive as the election draws nearer. These swing states will have produce a good race.
With these factors, I do not see how any reasonable person can reject the idea of Senator McConnell being elected Majority Leader come January.
MT polls have Tester up by 1% and Kerrey in Nebraska makes it at least competitive. Hawaii, New Mexico, and Wisconsin are all Democratic-leaning, and FL, MO, and VA are all swing states. King is likely to caucus with the Democrats and Warren can win Massachusetts, due to it being Massachusetts. I can see the Democrats losing 2-3 seats, but I cannot fathom Majority Leader McConnell.
Poll
