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opebo
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« Reply #1100 on: September 27, 2013, 11:43:10 am »
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Gays have one huge advantage: their target group also wants sex.

Haha, what. Have you met women? They enjoy good sex. More than men do, I think.

Like many places on the internet I think men here confuse "women don't want to have sex with me" with "women don't want to have sex".

Its still the same point.  Males want sex so much they'll have it with (almost) anyone, women hardly want it at all - they only have it with a select few.  The motivation levels are radically different.

Though admittedly it is in fact straight males who are so indiscriminate/desperate - gay men are notoriously fussy, with the gym bodies and all that.

I know plenty of women who go crazy if they don't get sex. I'm not sure where this notion comes from.

From the fact that a small minority of women have a high sexual desire.  Estimates very from 5%-30%.  I'd say an average of those figures - about 20% - is accurate.  Something about 'contrarian evolution' or something like that - any predominant evolved social trait carries with it a counter-strategy that some fairly predictable minority will 'follow'.
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« Reply #1101 on: September 27, 2013, 02:25:22 pm »
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Obama is partly to blame because he has negotiated with these terrorists in the past. He has emboldened them and reinforced their behavior. It didn't take a clinical psychologist to see this coming.
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« Reply #1102 on: September 28, 2013, 07:52:20 am »
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Good for him.


Disagreeing with someones politics is one thing, wishing death on their family is something else, approving of that behavior is sickening.


You are a messed up person if you wish death on anyones kids, let alone for political reasons.

I think its obvious at this point that opebo is basically this forum's very own Mme. Defarge.
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« Reply #1103 on: September 28, 2013, 08:38:40 am »
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This is a very rare species of Good Post: the good, yet ironic (considering it's BRTD) post:

This reminds me of why I don't read the Minnesota Progressive Project so much anymore, because it got to the point where about 75% of its posts were "OMG check out this really stupid thing some Republican legislator/state official said!" rather than the analysis of demographics, elections and districts that I liked. Even now there's been more coverage of Michele Bachmann being an idiot than the Minneapolis mayoral election.
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« Reply #1104 on: September 28, 2013, 05:43:54 pm »
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Good post because it sums up Obamacare and cuts through the BS:

1. It is mandated that every American purchase health insurance or pay a fee.

2. To assist in this, the state and/or federal government sets up health care exchanges with Bronze/Silver/Gold/Platinum plans offered by the government.  The plans are not run by the government, but contracted to private insurers in each state depending on who bidded the lowest price to be the official bronze, silver, gold, or platinum plan in each state. 

3. If you can still not afford the lowest price of these four plans, the government will also be providing tax subsidies depending on your distance from the poverty line--above 100%, 200%, 300%, or 400% to assist you in this payment.

4. Note the subsidies are only for above the poverty line.  If you are below it, you receive an even greater subsidy: the ability to now join Medicaid through a state run Medicaid expansion, paid fully by the federal government.  That's right--free health insurance for the poor at not cost to the state government.  Unfortunately, many states run by anti-Obamacare governors and legislatures have decided against expanding Medicaid, leaving millions of below poverty line Americans with no insurance and no subsidy.  Meaning, the poorest Texans, Alabamans, North Dakotans, etc. will be forced to pay fees for no insurance because the state government refuses to accept free money to give them insurance. On the bright side, the emergency room costs, costs to employers of low income earners, and loss of income by Medicaid institutions is economic damnation for these states and competition between states will eventually require them to file suit.

That, my friends, is Obamacare in four points.  Note how the longest, most convoluted point of the four is the only one where anti-Obamacare influences have tried to meddle in.
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« Reply #1105 on: September 28, 2013, 06:52:46 pm »
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Gays have one huge advantage: their target group also wants sex.

Haha, what. Have you met women? They enjoy good sex. More than men do, I think.

Like many places on the internet I think men here confuse "women don't want to have sex with me" with "women don't want to have sex".

Its still the same point.  Males want sex so much they'll have it with (almost) anyone, women hardly want it at all - they only have it with a select few.  The motivation levels are radically different.

Though admittedly it is in fact straight males who are so indiscriminate/desperate - gay men are notoriously fussy, with the gym bodies and all that.

I know plenty of women who go crazy if they don't get sex. I'm not sure where this notion comes from.

From the fact that a small minority of women have a high sexual desire.  Estimates very from 5%-30%.  I'd say an average of those figures - about 20% - is accurate.  Something about 'contrarian evolution' or something like that - any predominant evolved social trait carries with it a counter-strategy that some fairly predictable minority will 'follow'.

What estimates? And what is 'high'? I remain skeptical...
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« Reply #1106 on: September 30, 2013, 04:30:18 pm »
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Let's talk elections for a change.
Our Bundeswahlleiter has similar tables on his website:
http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/veroeffentlichungen/ergebnisse/
Sadly I found these tables only after I made the maps. His numbers are slightly different mainly because he calculates
[2013 absolute number of LINKE pr votes]/[2009 absolute number of LINKE pr votes]
while I have calculated
[2013 relative share of LINKE pr votes]/[2009 relative share of LINKE pr votes]
The basic pattern remains the same.

I made these quotient maps (for both FDP and LINKE) because I thought that a difference map would not be able to highlight all aspects I wanted to show.

Observations:

- Normally when a party loses votes it loses more in absolute numbers in its strongholds, but relatively more in its weak areas. For example the LINKE has gone down 5.8 points in the East, which is a fifth of their 2009 vote share, and it has gone down 2.7 points in the West, which is almost a third of their 2009 vote share. Similarly for the FDP. The interesting cases are when constituencies deviate from this basic rule (*).

- As Franknburger has pointed out earlier the FDP has hold up relatively good in its urban/metropolitan stronghold, but lost heavily in more rural/small town country, particularly in Catholic areas (e.g. Oberschwaben).
- In the East (except Potsdam), particularly in Saxony, the FDP has lost much more than in their Western weak areas (e.g. Ruhr, Braunschweig)
- The Linke has held up better in Saxony than in the rest of the East despite the basic rule*.
- In Saarland their is some kind of reverse Lafontaine effect.
- For some reason the Linke has remained relatively stable in NRW, in many rural areas (Paderborn?!) better than for example in the Northern Ruhr area, violating the basic rule*.
- In (Eastern) Bavaria and (Northwestern) Lower Saxony the Linke has lost heavily, sometimes (Aurich-Emden, some villages in the Bavarian forest) violating the Basic rule.
- The most striking pattern for the Linke is that they have held up much better in university cities (Münster, Freiburg, Aachen, Tübingen, Heidelberg and so on) in particular and Green strongholds in general. To a great extent this is probably not Green voters switching to the Linke, but sign of an academically educated "alternative" Linke core vote sharing the same milieu with the Greens.
And his maps a few posts above were glorious.
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« Reply #1107 on: October 01, 2013, 11:21:18 am »
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The Republicans obviously.

The wonderful thing about a shutdown is that it reminds people, particularly sections of the ignorant poor (whose ignorance is often fanned by the GOP) of how important the federal government actually is to their daily lives.

Over the past decade the GOP has decamped from the ‘small government’ ethos that once argued for a balanced approach to federal government, state government, funding and growth to a position that seems to be nothing more than out and out hatred for government simply functioning. That attitude also seems to pervade positions taken by the court as well. People say that the GOP has a dislike for minority interests however recently it’s apparent that they are a minority in hatred of the majority. Public support and electoral vindication of ‘Obamacare’ has swamped them, same goes for women’s bodies, gay rights, immigration, education. The GOP takes the minority position on nearly every salient public issue of the day. It no longer rests on the political spectrum at all and is now a conspiracy driven machine. The truth is it’s the internet that did it. The GOP’s grassroots are conspiracy theorists; they are birthers, they are the poor who think Mexicans want to swamp the country, they are the people who think the Muslim Brotherhood have infiltrated the government, the people who think that women can shut down a pregnancy, that climate change isn’t happening, that science is dangerous, that atheists hate America, that teaching children the age of the earth is unconstitutional and that gays are the worst group of people in America. They are the people who boo gay servicemen. They are the Christian right and the Paultards and every ideology of that nature that exists on a diet of conspiracy or if that’s not their thing, create a version of ‘reality’ that meets their needs.

It was etched on their faces on election night; the entire Romney campaign just didn’t know never mind didn’t accept what was actually happening out there. These people have Palin, and Cruz and Beck and Fox and WND and Unskewed Polls and a whole wealth of internet resources to back them up. Reality is nothing more than an inconvenience. The problem for any moderates in the GOP is that these people are now conditioned to think that way. If it means driving the GOP off an electoral cliff they will do it.
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Gabriel Cáceres

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« Reply #1108 on: October 01, 2013, 03:28:26 pm »
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Senate Democrats and Obama. 70% of Americans oppose Obamacare. 

By that logic, we should have stricter background checks and an assault weapons ban since a majority of Americans supported that.
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« Reply #1109 on: October 01, 2013, 09:21:54 pm »
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Both of these posts, one a response to the other, are quite good in different ways, with one thing about the first one that isn't so good corrected and explicated by the second one:

My church seems to do this a lot too, and it annoys me a lot.  Some examples:

All the Way My Savior Leads Me
Quote
All the way My Savior leads me, O the fullness of His love!
Perfect rest to me is promised, in my Father's house above,
When my spirit clothed immortal, wings its When I wake to life immortal, wing my flight to realms of day
(Probably done because Adventists are mortalist and don't believe people go directly to heaven or hell when they die.)

Christ the Lord is Risen Today (Second verse)
Quote
Dying once, He all doth save Died He once, our souls to save, Alleluia!
Where thy victory, O grave Where's thy victory, boasting grave?  Alleluia!

An entire verse of "Jesus Loves Me" was changed:

Original
Quote
Jesus loves me, He will stay,
Close beside me all the way,
If I love Him when I die,
He will take me home on high

Updated
Quote
Jesus, take this heart of mine,
Make it pure and wholly Thine,
On the cross You died for me,
I will love and live for Thee.
This was probably, at least in part, for the same reason as the "All the Way" one.

Rock of Ages (Last verse)
Quote
When I draw this fleeting breath, when my eyes shall close in death When my pilgrimage I close, victor o'er the last of foes,
When I soar to worlds unknown, and behold Thee on Thy throne
(See above)

A classic example in the vein of the "Amazing Grace" one (one that my pastor fully acknowledged):

At the Cross
Quote
Alas, and did my Savior bleed, and did my Sovereign die?
Would He devote that sacred head for such a worm someone such as I?

Even Christmas carols aren't immune.  "Good Christian Men Rejoice" became "Good Christians Now Rejoice" (probably to make it more "gender neutral"), and nearly all the traditional verses of "Silent Night" (except for the first) were changed into something completely foreign.
One of things that annoys me the most, though, is when they set the hymns to music that isn't used for them in any other church.  "I Sing the Mighty Power of God" is set to a tune that I've never heard in any other denomination, as is "I Gave My Life for Thee," "My Lord and I," and "Hark the Voice of Jesus Crying," among others.  (In fact, the latter got its title changed as well, to "Hark the Voice of Jesus Calling.")  I'm assuming that most of these "new" tunes were written by Adventist composers (There are a few that I know were.)Honestly, I think the mortalist updates are unnecessary too, because even if people don't go to heaven or hell immediately after death, they do at some point after death.

I could go on and on, but simply put, hymns are poetry, and poetry is fine art.  Some of these hymns were beautiful the way they were.  Why change them?  If you disagree with the theology, then don't sing them (or those verses, if they're not in the first one.) 

One of things that annoys me the most, though, is when they set the hymns to music that isn't used for them in any other church.  "I Sing the Mighty Power of God" is set to a tune that I've never heard in any other denomination, as is "I Gave My Life for Thee," "My Lord and I," and "Hark the Voice of Jesus Crying," among others.  (In fact, the latter got its title changed as well, to "Hark the Voice of Jesus Calling.")  I'm assuming that most of these "new" tunes were written by Adventist composers (There are a few that I know were.) Honestly, I think the mortalist updates are unnecessary too, because even if people don't go to heaven or hell immediately after death, they do at some point after death.

Keep in mind that many older hymns were not originally associated with any particular tune.  So it's probably just that the first Adventist hymnal to use it picked "I Sing the Mighty Power of God" at a time when it had not yet become associated with any tune.  Indeed, according to hymnary.org, there are two different tunes most commonly associated with "I Sing the Mighty Power of God".  The arranger of the tune Adventists use "Varina" doesn't appear to have been an Adventist, and certainly not the composer or lyricist since  they both lived in the 18th century. According to hymnary.org the tune "Varina" is most commonly associated with the hymn "There is a Land of Pure Delight".  It was not uncommon in older hymnals to print the lyrics and score separately and use one score with several lyrics that have the same metrical scheme.  This allowed the hymnal to either be smaller or include more hymns.  It also saved money as typesetting music back then was considerably more expensive that typesetting lyrics, especially if you embed the lyrics in the music as is now customary.

The most probable course of events here is that an early Adventist hymnal included both "I Sing the Mighty Power of God" and "There is a Land of Pure Delight" at a time when the former did not yet have a customary tune associated with it. The website I keep citing in this post  has both being used in the 1941 Adventist hymnal, altho "There is a Land of Pure Delight" is not in the 1985 Adventist hymnal.  So I doubt there was any intent at separatism, at least at first.  Choosing to retain "Varina" as the tune instead of switching to either "Ellacombe" or "Forest Green" may have something to do with trying to maintain Adventist particularism, but more likely it's just that by now using "Varina" as the tune for that hymn is traditional to Adventists and with "There is a Land of Pure Delight" no longer competing for the tune, there is even less need to consider switching.  Besides, Adventists use "Forest Green" as the tune for "Eternal God, Whose Power Upholds". which is one of several common choices for that hymn.
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« Reply #1110 on: October 01, 2013, 11:04:02 pm »
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Thanks for the mention.  I'm not a Bible literalist, and I never will be, but if I were I think there is a good chance I would be an Adventist.  I do enjoy the local radio station they sponsor here, even when I disagree with their theology, they present it in a logical and respectful manner.
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« Reply #1111 on: October 01, 2013, 11:13:04 pm »
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That's ridiculous.  If you have .08 BAC, you are impaired as a driver.  At below .08 BAC, you're impaired.  Some people are more or less impaired, sure, but you have to draw the line somewhere. 

a chronic alcoholic -- ie, someone who drinks himself to .2-.4 BAC regularly for decades on end, is certainly not impaired at .08, and in fact is probably better suited to drive at .08 than he would be at 0 and in the throes of withdrawal, shakes, delirium tremens, etc.

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The larger point is there is no legitimate interest in driving while intoxicated.  It's extremely dangerous and puts other people's lives in danger.  10,000 people a year and killed because of drunk driving.  Whatever tiny unfairness is born by only somewhat impaired drivers is nothing compared to the public safety interest here. 

that all depends where your sympathies lie my man.  the DUI industry has given rise to a few destructive and distinct effects: erosion of the 4th amendment (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_Dept._of_State_Police_v._Sitz , Thurgood coming down on the correct side of a 4th amendment issue, as usual), cultural deification of law enforcement, and the treatment-industrial complex slush fund.  naturally I hate all of these things more than I hate people who drive while drinking or drunk.
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« Reply #1112 on: October 03, 2013, 08:58:17 pm »
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Torie is slowing starting to realize something...

This thought occurred to me yesterday.  The Pub idea of deferring the individual mandate for a year, seems like a fiscally insane idea.  Why? Because Obamacare otherwise will still be in place, and folks voluntarily will still be able to sign up for subsidized insurance, and presumably will in particular if they have pre-existing conditions. So won't those who voluntarily sign up be disproportionately the sicks, and therefore the insured pool of new entrants will be disproportionately sick;  therefore the cash flow out as compared to the premiums in, will just be a sea of horrifically red ink. That tends to be a problem irrespective, given how weak the mandate is, but without any mandate at all, the problem will be worse, no? Yet the media has never discussed this issue to my knowledge nor the Dems, suggesting that I am missing something here. But I can't think what it is.

Why aren't the Dems bashing the Pubs over the head with this argument? To me, it is a dispositive and winning argument from which there is no escape. Can someone help the old man with some of this?  Thanks.

I wish I were a Pub in Congress. They need me. Tongue
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« Reply #1113 on: October 04, 2013, 07:41:54 am »
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So lemme get this straight here. Being "reasonable" on domestic policy excuses him from running what basically constituted massive scams on both the domestic and foreign policy front? Good to know that the political matrix is all that matters in judging presidencies.
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« Reply #1114 on: October 04, 2013, 12:57:10 pm »
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You know, some days its hard to be a republican.

Obama passed Obama care, he did a bunch of stuff, he got reelected, okay, then what? I mean, the guy was reelected. Get over it. DOn;t shut down this government because of something The People voted to KEEP in office. Christ almighty. ing tea party is ruining the party I once held so near and dear to my heart and forcing me to switch sides and become a Democrat.

What will this solve? We aren;t getting RID of Obama care. If we wanted to do that, we would have elected Romney, but we didn't, so here it is. Hang it around our necks and OWN it like a hooker owns her reputation.
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« Reply #1115 on: October 05, 2013, 02:52:43 pm »
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It's unfortunate that we have seen the retirement age increased, rather than lowered as of late. Really, I would say people should start retiring while in their fifties, even at 50 itself. That's when I would mark someone as "older." Plus people shouldn't have to work their entire f**ing lives.
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« Reply #1116 on: October 06, 2013, 04:48:09 pm »
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This is a map of where white voters were more liberal or more conservative than their national average in 2012:



Remarkably, this correctly predicts 47 states and DC.  And in VA Romney and McCain got the same % of white voters despite the national swing, so the white vote there could easily be left of the nation next time around.
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« Reply #1117 on: October 06, 2013, 05:29:32 pm »
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Even if the debt ceiling is not raised, if by "default" one means defaulting on treasury debt service, that will not happen. Government spending will need to be slashed by 20%, or whatever the cash short fall amount is, but out of the 80% of cash available, debt service will certainly be paid. So there is zero chance given that definition of default. (Grumps this is the proper quote from me for you to save. The other is just the Reader's Digest version of what I meant.)

Why doesn't Fox News simply watch MSNBC if they want to get a good source of accurate news?  I keep seeing these statements posted on the web and I wonder why people don't just watch MSNBC news where it was explained quite clearly that the Treasury computer system simply is not set up to pick and choose what to pay.  I know it is fun for Republicans to trot out simplistic and inaccurate analogies comparing the federal government to a household but it isn't a household.  It is a complex multitrillion dollar global institution that is responsible for taking care of 330 million people both at home and abroad.

Do people simply not have any concept of the number, nature, and variety of checks that go out?  For a party that claims to love efficiency and certainty for big business they really do propose some really complex inefficient ideas that dramatically increase uncertainty.
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« Reply #1118 on: October 08, 2013, 07:26:56 pm »
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Extreme and utter FF. He wasn't racist, and he was one of the best men in the movie industry.
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« Reply #1119 on: October 08, 2013, 07:30:18 pm »
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Extreme and utter FF. He wasn't racist, and he was one of the best men in the movie industry.

The Good Post Gallery does not work that way. Good night.
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« Reply #1120 on: October 11, 2013, 02:44:36 pm »
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I'm seeing a lot of partisanship on this thread. Us bickering over who will benefit from others being out of work seems pretty out of touch to me. Don't you agree it's better for us to find common ground? What's even worse is that neither side is asking for much.

Jesus, what are you, CNN? This false equivalency nonsense is the worst thing about the shutdown slimdown©.

Here's Oakvale's Brief History of The Attempts To Repeal Obamacare, presented free of charge as a public service.

1. The administration begins to work on a centrist healthcare reform law large built on idea endorsed by the Heritage Foundation and Newt Gingrich. Republicans immediately decide this is Marxism and rednecks across the nation petition their representatives to keep the government out of their socialised healthcare.

2. After a contentious debate and much pandering from coward right-wing Democrats, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare passes the House and the Senate and is signed into law by the President.

3. Republican crybabies immediately begin futile efforts to repeal the law by holding a bunch of meaningless votes to do so.

4. The Republican Party takes the House, but fails to take the Senate let alone come anywhere close to a veto-proof majority. Aware that there remains no chance that the President will sign a bill repealing the most significant social policy accomplishment in a generation the Republican House nonetheless decides that the Bill is unconstitutional and attempts to repeal it anyway.

5. As Republicans wait for vindication of their argument that Obamacare is unconstitutional, the Supreme Court of the United States, the arbiter of how the term "constitutional" is legitimately applied, rules, led by George W. Bush appointee John Roberts, that the central foundation of the bill, the individual mandate, is, in fact constitutional. Legal scholar Rand Paul response "just because some people on the Supreme Court decide something is constitutional doesn't make it so". The Republican Party wets itself en masse and continues trying to repeal the law.

6. President Obama handily defeats Republican candidate Mitt "Mittens" Romney to be comfortably re-elected to a second term as President. Romney spent much of the campaign vowing to repeal Obamacare and the law was a major issue in the election. Republicans lose seats in both Houses of Congress to the pro-Obamacare Democratic Party.

7. Emboldened by the widespread rejection of their agenda, Republicans courageously fight to save America once again by voting to repeal Obamacare another eighty thousand times. The odds of this happening are even lower than before given the increased Democratic Senate majority and the fact that the namesake of the bill will be in office until 2017.

8. As the bizarre technicality known as the "debt ceiling" approaches, the Republicans, riding on a wave of popular support in their own rural and suburban hellhole districts, decide the most justifiable course of action is to hold the global economy to ransom by throwing a massive tantrum, shutting down the government, and threatening to cause a second Great Depression unless the Democratic Party (winners, national popular vote, Congressional elections, 2012) and President Barack Obama (winner, national popular and electoral vote, Presidential election, 2012) join in their unhinged reactionary circlejerk and repeal a decidedly centrist healthcare law. Economic terrorism is the order of the day as Republicans adopt a posture of moral outrage at the idea that Obama should refuse to negotiate with these psychopaths.

WHY CAN'T WE FIND SOME COMMON GROUND? BOTH SIDES ARE EQUALLY TO BLAME.
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« Reply #1121 on: October 11, 2013, 10:48:22 pm »
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I was going to post exactly what Scott has just posted.
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« Reply #1122 on: October 12, 2013, 08:04:22 am »
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More accurately Premillennial/Rapturist/too much Left Behind delusiions.
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« Reply #1123 on: October 12, 2013, 10:33:49 am »
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They should be required to work, or look for work (and I mean really look, and maybe have to go somewhere for 8 hours a day to do it), or be training for work. Given that might mean childcare costs might have to be covered, the process might be more expensive than just handing out the welfare checks (particularly for those with no real skill set), but this is not about, and should not be about, money. (Opebo may think work is soul killing; I think it's soul enhancing.) It's hard having self respect when on the dole, it's demoralizing, and leads to, or exacerbates, dysfunctional personal habits.
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« Reply #1124 on: October 13, 2013, 04:47:43 pm »
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Clearly this thread has outlives its usefulness. Opebo wins.
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Yeah, after four years of being a non-disruptive poster on the forum, never considered a troublemaker, even someone who was liked well enough to be elected Atlasian President, Napoleon should be allowed to stay.


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