The chances that CA voters repeal the death penalty are not too bad actually.
The ballot language will probably include "and replace it with life imprisonment without the chance of parole".
And the latest Field poll shows:
48% life without parole
40% death penalty
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2393.pdf
And as you can see from the historical poll results, support for life without parole is steadily increasing.
That would be an amazing turnabout here in California, seeing as 3 members of the state Supreme Court were rejected by the voters in 1986 for supporting the death penalty. Chief Justice Rose Bird lost by a landslide 67-33 margin. That's the only time members of the Supreme Court were rejected by the voters.