I suggest we shut this board down until mid-July

[Torie]

Well, actually this is the place to monitor the gaffes and stumbles and two-steps and so forth of Obama and Mittens. I failed to notice by the way much about Obama's launch of his "war on the courts."  So many wars, so little time.

[Torie]

There will only be three types of threads posted until then:

- What about xxx for Vice President?
- Make a map of Obama/Biden vs. Romney/xxx
- How would the hypothetical independent candidacy of xxx affect the race?

Let's just save ourselves some time and end it now.

Meeker, there is, of course, the fourth type of thread, which you failed to mention.

The let's bash Romney again thread, which includes troll posts asking stupid questions and making stupid statements about the next President of the United States, Mitt Romney.

I can see Romney's road to the White House being:
2008: Run for President, lose in primaries.
2012: Run for President, lose in November despite winning the PV.
2013-2015: The Restore Mitt's Future PAC spends millions pushing states to sign on to the NPVIC.
2016: Run for President, and this time win the PV and not need the EV.

It's not a likel roady, but it is far more likely than Romney winning without a crisis between now and Novermebt.

You think the electoral college screws Mittens that bad eh?  Why?  I don't quite see that myself, particularly given that NH is out there.

[Torie]

You think the electoral college screws Mittens that bad eh?  Why?  I don't quite see that myself, particularly given that NH is out there.

A simple uniform swing from 2008 to a PV tie still leaves Obama with a healthy 303-235 victory.

Even if Mittens picks up not just the three states he gains from a uniform swing (NC, IN, FL), but also Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire, he still loses 287-251.

(The polling from Iowa indicates it is likely to trend considerably more Republican than the national swing, and Nevada and New Hampshire are the states people like to tout a "home state" effect for Mitt, but I don't see it being enough on its own to swing Nevada, and post-primary polls have shown New Hampshire as no longer having the huge Republican trend they did pre-primary, but for purposes of argument I'll concede that Romney might be able to improve there by November more than he does nationally.)

Romney will need at least Ohio and probably both Ohio and Virginia to win and I can easily see Romney having a narrow national PV win and losing one or both of them.  If Romney can get to 51-48 his EV weakness might not cost him, but at 50-49, I think it will.

While there won't be a uniform swing, for Romney to not lose the EV in a close PV contest requires an awful lot of the states that trend Republican by more than the national swing be the tossup states and that would be a bit of astounding luck on Romney's part.

Romney picks up Ohio from a uniform swing to an even PV - easily. He gets all he needs from a uniform swing (including VA which is about 0.5% on the GOP side of the ledger), except for NH. NH is the key.