I suggest we shut this board down until mid-July

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There will only be three types of threads posted until then:

- What about xxx for Vice President?
- Make a map of Obama/Biden vs. Romney/xxx
- How would the hypothetical independent candidacy of xxx affect the race?

Let's just save ourselves some time and end it now.

Meeker, there is, of course, the fourth type of thread, which you failed to mention.

The let's bash Romney again thread, which includes troll posts asking stupid questions and making stupid statements about the next President of the United States, Mitt Romney.

I can see Romney's road to the White House being:
2008: Run for President, lose in primaries.
2012: Run for President, lose in November despite winning the PV.
2013-2015: The Restore Mitt's Future PAC spends millions pushing states to sign on to the NPVIC.
2016: Run for President, and this time win the PV and not need the EV.

It's not a likel roady, but it is far more likely than Romney winning without a crisis between now and Novermebt.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You think the electoral college screws Mittens that bad eh?  Why?  I don't quite see that myself, particularly given that NH is out there.

A simple uniform swing from 2008 to a PV tie still leaves Obama with a healthy 303-235 victory.

Even if Mittens picks up not just the three states he gains from a uniform swing (NC, IN, FL), but also Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire, he still loses 287-251.

(The polling from Iowa indicates it is likely to trend considerably more Republican than the national swing, and Nevada and New Hampshire are the states people like to tout a "home state" effect for Mitt, but I don't see it being enough on its own to swing Nevada, and post-primary polls have shown New Hampshire as no longer having the huge Republican trend they did pre-primary, but for purposes of argument I'll concede that Romney might be able to improve there by November more than he does nationally.)

Romney will need at least Ohio and probably both Ohio and Virginia to win and I can easily see Romney having a narrow national PV win and losing one or both of them.  If Romney can get to 51-48 his EV weakness might not cost him, but at 50-49, I think it will.

While there won't be a uniform swing, for Romney to not lose the EV in a close PV contest requires an awful lot of the states that trend Republican by more than the national swing be the tossup states and that would be a bit of astounding luck on Romney's part.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Romney picks up Ohio from a uniform swing to an even PV - easily. He gets all he needs from a uniform swing (including VA which is about 0.5% on the GOP side of the ledger), except for NH. NH is the key.

You're still wrong , but almost right, and a lot righter than I was thinking you were.  I made a dumb swing/trend mistake about when to cut things in half.

However, when you factor in some predictable non-uniform swings it does not look good for Mittens in a close PV race.  Indiana rebounding for an abnormally high Democratic trend in 2008 will suck up part of the Republican swing, as will rebound in the upper plains states such of Montana, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.  Plus the demographic trends that have been making Virginia more Democratic have slowly continued these past four years.  In an even PV situation, it looks to me that the GOP loses Virginia.

By contrast, the reason why the Lower Mississippi Valley states trended heavily Republican in 2008 is still there as Obama is running for reelection.  I expect that of the states that heavily trended GOP in 2008, only Arkansas will will see a large rebound to the Democrats.  (Tho not enough to put Arkansas in play, merely enough to ensure that in a national close PV race, Romney does not go over 60% of the PV in Arkansas.)

Plus the evidence indicates that Romney no longer has a "home state" advantage in New Hampshire.  I don't know why, maybe the New Hampshirites got offended by what Mittens thought of their trees.  Whatever the reason, as I said earlier, the post-NH primary polling no longer shows Romney benefiting in that State from a much greater than national swing in his favor.