Smid
Junior Chimp
Posts: 6,151
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« on: April 08, 2012, 07:46:40 AM » |
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I've pondered these questions frequently, as well. Incidentally, there are blank maps in the gallery - I'm sure you've seen them, but you might find them useful to shade to reflect potential targetted ridings. I don't know if I agree about Winnipeg Centre South, River Heights is the Torah belt in the city and aside from Mulcair, the NDP isn't as pro-Israel as the other parties. The Liberals could regain it, but they may struggle, unless there is no chance of them supporting an NDP minority government. I suspect this may be why the Conservatives won the Jewish vote in 2011. The same potentially could be the case in Mount Royal.
On the other hand, the suburban west riding in Winnipeg... I forget, Charleswood? Assinobia? Something like that (as in, something along those lines combined. There's a third one in there, too, St something, I think. Anyway, from memory, it is split by the river, and provincially, ridings on the north side are NDP, while provincial ridings on the south side are PC, so there could be room for growth there. I think a provincial PC members ran for the Liberals federally there.
I think you're right about the potential for the NDP in London North Centre - there's a poll map on here somewhere. I think it the result was mostly to do with vote splitting. Probably similar to Scarborough Centre. Dislodging the (Liberal) incumbent is half the battle... In some places, like Vaughan, this benefits the Conservatives, in other places, like Scarborough Centre or London North Centre, it could possibly help the NDP in the long run - so not the party that defeated the incumbent in the first place.
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