Torie's House Projections 2012

[Torie]

I have prepared a spreadsheet, organized in order of PVI's.  I have not adjusted them for the moment for local circumstances (e.g., towards the Dems in TX, TN and AZ, towards the Pubs in IL and maybe parts of NY). I did mentally make adjustments when handicapping races however. So below is my first cut, listing the races I think are in play. As you can see, I don't project much change in the partisan count, and consider it next to impossible that the Dems will take control of the House. It just isn't there - period.

And you can see how the gerrymandering wars, plus modern technology and sophistication, have stripped this nation really of competitive seats. What we have is a grossly inverted bell curve, that dips down to a handful of seats in the middle. Part of that of course reflects the sharp polarization at the moment in the nation at large.

Below that I give you a glimpse of what my master chart looks like. I am still working on it. If I can find a way to present it, maybe a dummy person could take over this thread, and those who want to have their own column would have their name above it, and they could adjust their column whenever they feel like it. Those who want to contribute would have the password for the dummy person. I would  have to be satisfied that they would not commit chart "terrorism" however.

However, using a spreadsheet is much easier, but that would require emailing it back and forth between participants.

Anyway, it might be a fun way to do it, and make sense of who is disagreeing with who where. If it jells, perhaps the thread  can be "stickied."

 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Nice job.  



If you ever need a map, you can use this one.  Only New Hampshire is unfinished with their redistricting process.  


Oh, and just FTR, I think West is probably in shakier territory.  Just saying. 

[minionofmidas]

Nice job.  



If you ever need a map, you can use this one.  Only New Hampshire is unfinished with their redistricting process.  

Cough, Kansas.

That's the Senate's map I linked you to and that you added, at a time when I thought it likely (though far from certain) the House would eventually fall in line.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Nice job.  



If you ever need a map, you can use this one.  Only New Hampshire is unfinished with their redistricting process.  

Cough, Kansas.

That's the Senate's map I linked you to and that you added, at a time when I thought it likely (though far from certain) the House would eventually fall in line.

Oh, whoops. 

[Bacon King]

If you want to have a shared spreadsheet that's editable online, just use Google Docs.

[Torie]

If you want to have a shared spreadsheet that's editable online, just use Google Docs.

Oh, I will try it out. Yet another new toy for the old man to explore. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't have a huge expertise outside of NJ and MA, but I'd probably add Scott Garrett to the Likely Republican column and add Tierney (MA-06) to Likely Democrat.

[Miles]

McIntyre is a tossup at worst given that 1) his ability to carry counties hostile to national Democrats and 2) the divisive GOP primary.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think Bill Johnson (OH-6) is in more danger than Bob Gibbs (OH-7) because while Johnson's district may have a more Republican PVI, it is in the "butternut region" as Torie likes to call it and Johnson has a much better oponent than Gibbs in Charlie Wilson. There are probably a decent number of voters who will split a ticket Romney/Wilson. I can't imagine much of anyone voting for Mitt Romney and Joyce Healy-Abrams. I know EMILY's list is trying to give Healy-Abrams some traction, but she's still an underfunded candidate who has never held elected office before running in a district won by John McCain.

The most vulnerable Republican Rep in Ohio is probably Renacci, since Sutton is by far the best funded of the three Democratic challengers I've mentioned.