United Ireland?

[tpfkaw]

The birth rate of Catholics in NI is much higher than that of Protestants, and they should be a majority in 20-30 years if present trends continue.  Of course, if a majority ever supports joining Ireland, the UK government will presumably become massive hypocrites and partition NI.

[tpfkaw]

If I'm recalling correctly, a recent survey in NI showed that 55% of primary school pupils are Catholic and 40% Protestant.  The unionists in NI are headed to demographic apocalypse in the medium term, should present voting habits persist.  That's why you've seen recent moderation on the part of the unionists (Peter Robinson gave a speech [in Dublin!] in which he stated that unionists will have to start reaching out to Catholics, and Jonathan Bell spoke at the Fine Gael party conference, while the UUP just elected their first non-Orange Order leader).

Of course, there never will be a fully united Ireland in any scenario; like I said, a nationalist majority in NI would merely mean partition.  Of course, even if the present demographic trends continue, that won't be happening for 50 years or so, unless the nats get momentum from other parts of the UK breaking off.

[tpfkaw]

I figure it's like the West Germany/East Germany or South Korea/North Korea thing - they might not really want to in the strictly practical sense, but they would feel obligated to anyway.

[tpfkaw]

Well, this leaves one more option. Upon Scottish independence the United Kingdom gets disolved and the Kingdom of Northern Island becomes a separate member of the Commonwealth. Would that be possible? Again, conditional on Scottish independence actually prospering.

No. Nobody is going to touch NI constitutional issues for a long time.. and with good reason.

Well, that might not be up to even the (Northern) Irish - or, for that matter, the English. If Scotland gets independence, the constitutional issues in the rest of the UK would have to be touched, wouldn't they? Even the decision to stay in the UK will not be exactly the decision to maintain status quo - it would be a very different UK.

The UK will be maintained regardless - it will just be the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Doesn't that require upgrading Wales to Kingdom status?  (Which would undoubtedly trigger a minor civil war between the Welsh and Daily Mail readers).

[tpfkaw]

England should really be split into multiple smaller entities for devolution, but I guess that isn't a very popular idea. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_England_devolution_referendums,_2004