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| |-+  International General Discussion (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
| | |-+  United Ireland? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will there be a united Ireland in 2032?
Aint gonna happen   -27 (81.8%)
Yes - a confederation   -3 (9.1%)
Yes - a federal republic   -3 (9.1%)
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Total Voters: 33

Author Topic: United Ireland?  (Read 6015 times)
ObserverIE
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« on: April 10, 2012, 06:12:38 am »

No. Nobody here wants it.

Not perhaps among the demographic who would regularly post to international political forums. I wouldn't necessarily project from there onto the population at large.

As politicus says, the motivation, if it comes, will come from Northern Ireland. That requires a majority wanting reunion, and while that may come closer with demographic change, there are two dampeners from the point of northern nationalists:

i) the state of the economy/society in the south (not currently looking good),
ii) worry about how the "law-abiding" current majority would react to being outvoted in a democratic election.

(I wouldn't pay much heed to the likes of the Northern Ireland Life and Times surveys; given their massively skewed results when it comes to political party support, it's clear that they measure the opinions that people feel comfortable expressing to total strangers in a society where "whatever you say, say nothing" is still a wise course of action.)

If there was a majority in favour of reunion in the north, I wouldn't expect there to be any significant opposition in the south (the occasional bobo excepted). But I don't expect it to happen any time soon.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2012, 05:50:03 pm »

If that happened, it seems to me no one would be sadder than Gerry Adams.  Sinn Fein would lose it's entire reason to exist in a unified Ireland.

I wouldn't be sure of that. The ANC, Indian Congress Party, KMT, etc. are still around.

At the moment, there's a gigantic hole in the centre ground of politics in the south where Fianna Fáil used to be. Fine Gael have the right to themselves (at least until Merkozynomics works its magic and the country goes even more tits-up than it is already), while to the left, Labour look to be returning themselves to single figures, and the other rivals for that swathe of territory are either an uneasy alliance of two mutually-suspicious Trotskyite sectlets or a gaggle of rural populist independents. Sinn Féin are trying to reposition themselves to take advantage of that.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2012, 05:55:22 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2012, 08:57:15 pm »

Well, I am a "Bobo" so I don't speak for - and can't claim to speak for - the man in Ballyheerin but I don't see much sentiment in favour of unification going around around the country.

I think the best description for it is "desirable in the abstract but not at all urgent at the moment".

Quote
Rather I think the border has become far too well-entrenched for it to change without some form of upheaval in the way we consider "Irishness" taking place. The recent incident when Armagh GAA players were referred to as "British bastards" being a particular demonstration of that.

I wouldn't necessarily take too much from the Queen's County football team's taste in sledging; the hysterical treatment meted out to Derrytresk after the Junior club football semi-final was more serious in my judgement.

Partitionism is there in the south and it has been for as long as I can remember; it still didn't stop McAleese being elected President in 1997.

The change, if it ever comes, will come from north of the border and may come when people least expect it.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2012, 10:49:26 am »

While re-unification has romantic appeal to some Catholics in Northern Ireland, the suspension of Home Rule and the introduction of an army presence was initially welcomed as a protection against political Orangism. Even during the 'Troubles' it was more welcomed than perhaps many Catholics would care to admit (and always preferable to the police)

I wouldn't over-egg the pudding; the welcome wore out very quickly after the Falls curfew and the introduction of internment. It also depended on the regiment; a lot of Scottish regiments had a bad reputation for dealing with Catholic civilians and the UDR (officially part of the British Army) a worse one.
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