Romney Campaign: CO, NV, OH and VA will decide General Election

[Tender Branson]

The prolonged and hard-fought nominating contest, Mr. Romney’s advisers said, has put his campaign nearly two months behind on its initial plan to build political and field operations in the dozen states where both sides agree that most of the general election will be fought: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. (In the final phase of the campaign, Romney officials believe that the election could come down to just four states: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.)

Republican elected officials and strategists acknowledged in interviews that Mr. Romney had significant ground to make up — Mr. Obama leads in many early polls of swing states.

Gov. John R. Kasich, Republican of Ohio, where Mr. Romney narrowly beat Mr. Santorum, said Mr. Romney needed to show that he can connect with voters and “demonstrate that he understands their problems.” But, Mr. Kasich added, “There is going to be a part of the electorate that is a lot more interested in beating Obama than electing the Republican.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/09/us/politics/major-republican-super-pac-prepares-to-take-on-obama.html?_r=1&ref=politics

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

CO & NV aren't going to be 'decisive' states, if Romney wins them he has already won the election. He will of course need OH & VA.

[Tender Branson]

Another point in the article:

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Why 200 million ?

Crossroads had "only" 24 million in the bank at the end of February and brought in 3 million.

200 minus 24 is 176 million.

They have 8 months left until the election, so they would need to raise 22 million each month to get 200 million. Totally unrealistic.

[Brittain33]

I'm guessing this means that if we're talking about Florida, Romney has already lost.

[Lief 🗽]

Good to see that Republicans are taking Indiana for granted a second general election year in a row!

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that Republicans are taking Indiana for granted a second general election year in a row!

Well, we need more polls to see if Obama has a chance there.

But some factors need to be very favorable for Obama to win Indiana again:

* turn out a lot of Democrats
* get about the same percentage among Dems as Romney gets among Reps
* Obama must win Independents by at least 10 to overcome the fact that more Reps turn out than Dems

[Boris]

Good to see that Republicans are taking Indiana for granted a second general election year in a row!

They might as well, no? If Indiana is even close, it means Obama is leading by several percentage points nationwide and the GOP has already lost the election.  Indiana and North Carolina aren't going to vote (D) if Romney can hit the 47-48% threshold so why even bother?  

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that Republicans are taking Indiana for granted a second general election year in a row!

They might as well, no? If Indiana is even close, it means Obama is leading by several percentage points nationwide and the GOP has already lost the election.  Indiana and North Carolina aren't going to vote (D) if Romney can hit the 47-48% threshold so why even bother?  

North Carolina is a totally different construction site than Indiana. The state will be close in any case.

[Lief 🗽]

Good to see that Republicans are taking Indiana for granted a second general election year in a row!

They might as well, no? If Indiana is even close, it means Obama is leading by several percentage points nationwide and the GOP has already lost the election.  Indiana and North Carolina aren't going to vote (D) if Romney can hit the 47-48% threshold so why even bother? 

If you go by that strategy, then only 2-3 states are really important.

[Brittain33]

If you go by that strategy, then only 2-3 states are really important.

Isn't that how things boiled down in 2000 and 2004, though? Kerry reduced everything to Ohio and Colorado by the end, playing defense in other states and not expending energy on small prizes like NM. Even in 2008, McCain finished the race by focusing on a few key states he really couldn't win (PA) but which, if all went well, would have made up the last 40 or so EVs needed for victory in a close race.

[tmthforu94]

Good to see that Republicans are taking Indiana for granted a second general election year in a row!

Well, we need more polls to see if Obama has a chance there.

But some factors need to be very favorable for Obama to win Indiana again:

* turn out a lot of Democrats
* get about the same percentage among Dems as Romney gets among Reps
* Obama must win Independents by at least 10 to overcome the fact that more Reps turn out than Dems

I have a hard time seeing Obama carrying Indiana in 2012. In 2008, Obama was playing on the offensive by going for Indiana, and Republicans didn't focus on it because, well, if we lose Indiana it means we lost other places as well, so it made more sense to focus on Ohio and the other traditional swing states.

In 2012, I think Obama will have to be playing on the defensive. He knows Indiana would certainly be an uphill climb, and he can easily give it back to the GOP and still win the election. He might put a little in here just to keep the GOP on its toes, but it won't be anything like 2012.

That being said, I wouldn't mind a visit or two from Romney this fall.

[Boris]

If you go by that strategy, then only 2-3 states are really important.

Well yeah, basically. You need to get to ~49% nationwide to have any chance of winning anyway. If Romney's at that level, he's already won IN and NC and a lot of other places that Obama won yet underperformed his 2008 national average. Then it comes down to states that were close to the 2008 national average, such as VA, OH, CO, IA etc.

North Carolina is a totally different construction site than Indiana. The state will be close in any case.

naw man, it wouldn't any sense for Obama and Romney to be tied nationally yet also tied in NC.

[Keystone Phil]

Good to see that Republicans are taking Indiana for granted a second general election year in a row!

2008 was just a bit different, my friend.

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina is a totally different construction site than Indiana. The state will be close in any case.

naw man, it wouldn't any sense for Obama and Romney to be tied nationally yet also tied in NC.

The only poll that has Romney tied with Obama or ahead is Rasmussen.

The RCP average has Romney down 5 nationally and because NC could still trend DEM it makes sense that NC is tied when Romney is down 5 nationally.

[5280]

I wonder how many campaign offices Romney has in all the swing states?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If he is going to have the focus be on NV and CO if this is close at the end, then that means the etch a sketch will be worn out to win 40% of Hispanic voters.

[Bull Moose Base]

ppp tweet today

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[5280]

ppp tweet today

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If that's the case, then there must be a bunch of blow hard dummies in this state.

[tmthforu94]

ppp tweet today

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If that's the case, then there must be a bunch of blow hard dummies in this state.

Misguided would be a better word.

It's up to brave troops like you to steer them back in the right direction. Colorado is a state Romney needs to win in 2012!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It'll swing back once people compare Obama to Mitt Romney himself, not Mitt Romney+Rick Santorum.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So Romney is considering Florida to be safe for him? Is their new Governor even better at stealing elections than Jeb was?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

ppp tweet today

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Democrats held the Senate and Governor seats in 2010, which was toxic on many accounts. A lead shouldn't be too much of a surprise.

[Tender Branson]

ppp tweet today

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If that's the case, then there must be a bunch of blow hard dummies in this state.

Misguided would be a better word.

It's up to brave troops like you to steer them back in the right direction. Colorado is a state Romney needs to win in 2012!

CO is full of young hipster skiing/snowboarding marihuana-smoking, gay-loving people with I-Phones, college education and in professional occupations. Mixed with the Hispanics, Blacks and Asians it's the poster child of an Obama state. And if Bennet won it in 2010, I don't see why Obama shouldn't win it in November. It's probably still going to narrow a bit, but if had had to bet I would bet a good amount on Obama.

[bgwah]

CO is full of young hipster skiing/snowboarding marihuana-smoking, gay-loving people with I-Phones, college education and in professional occupations. Mixed with the Hispanics, Blacks and Asians it's the poster child of an Obama state.

Did Naso hack Tender's account?

[5280]

ppp tweet today

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If that's the case, then there must be a bunch of blow hard dummies in this state.

Misguided would be a better word.

It's up to brave troops like you to steer them back in the right direction. Colorado is a state Romney needs to win in 2012!

CO is full of young hipster skiing/snowboarding marihuana-smoking, gay-loving people with I-Phones, college education and in professional occupations. Mixed with the Hispanics, Blacks and Asians it's the poster child of an Obama state. And if Bennet won it in 2010, I don't see why Obama shouldn't win it in November. It's probably still going to narrow a bit, but if had had to bet I would bet a good amount on Obama.

The iPhone is an overrated piece of crap compared to the Droid Razr (I know this, have friends than own one).  I'm for legalizing marijuana, don't care for skiing/snowboarding, it's expensive, but I like biking, camping, hiking for outdoor activites.  

There are plenty of the hispanics living around here, mainly in the poorer inner suburbs. What you make it sounds like, those who live in CO and don't relate to us politically, then it's not a place for you.  What you describe is typical of Boulder and Denver, generally not the suburbs.