Who do you think will win the election?

[Niemeyerite]

Everyone knows there is an extreme Democratic tilt on this forum, and the poll and comments here only emphasize that.

You know there are republicans saying that Obama will win, too, don't you?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think at this point, its hard to see Obama not winning.

While Obama is the likely winner right now, it's not tough at all to come with scenarios that lead to him losing.  Since those scenarios all involve some sore of problem, for that reason alone I hope they don't come to be.

[zorkpolitics]

Unfortunately probably Obama, but with a smaller margin of victory.
Romney has been seriously damaged by the Republican circular firing squad known as the Primaries.

Romney would have a chance if the economy falters further, he picks a VP that doesn't promote a media feeding frenzy, and the Supremes sink all of Obamacare.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Obama. With an 'economy good' media narrative, moderates will stick with the more charismatic candidate, and Romney's image probably won't appeal that much to the working class voters who aren't feeling so good about the economy.

And if the election became close, voter fraud and inner city minority manipulation trumps honest voting. The DNC machine is an unbeatable monster.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Romney

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

At this point, although anything can happen, I think Obama has about an 80% chance of winning in November.

[greenforest32]

Good thing we're likely to have a gerrymandered Republican House and/or a filibuster allowing Democratic Senate to go with a 2nd term for Obama.

I'm looking forward to four more years of "compromise"

[rbt48]

Of course, there is always the "who wants the mess" scenario.  The next four years are likely to be so painful for the country (economically), that who would really want to win?  I mean, somehow, we will have to come to terms with the huge debt and raise taxes and retirement ages and try to defuse multiple international crises.  It would seem inevitable that the next administration will have to make unpopular decisions and alienate large portions of the electorate.  So maybe both parties will try to lose.  

Obama will have to face a likely hostile Congress; at the very best, even if the House flips, he would be able to break Senate filibusters.  Romney, even with majorities in Congress, won't have the votes to break Senate filibusters either.  Also, with the necessity for unpopular legislation, could face huge mid-term losses in 2014.

[TheGlobalizer]

Romney.  I think he's just not-lame enough to squeak out a victory over the Scumbag Prez^TM.  Obama is too loose-cannon to win the comfort vote, IMO.

[Lambsbread]

Obama.

[5280]

Anything can happen right now, hard to say.

[perdedor]

Can Romney close his 18 point deficit with women? Probably not. Will he Etch-a-Sketch himself a relatable demeanor and rudimentary understanding of the working person's problems? Even less likely. Romney is going to lose and if the economy shows reasonable improvement by the fall, it could very well be a bloodbath. Looking forward to it.

[milhouse24]

All the data and polls show Obama as vulnerable.  Especially the jobs data and unemployment.  When summer comes and $4 gas is here to stay, then Romney really has a chance. 

I don't know what polls and stats everyone else is looking at, but Romney really has a chance to win this, especially if he can win over white Catholics. 

Romney's platform is "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget"  and he can win on those themes. 

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Romney is in striking distance in most polls while being hammered on all sides in the primary. That's good news for him.

I think he'll pull out a narrow victory a la Bush 2004.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Romney is in striking distance in most polls while being hammered on all sides in the primary. That's good news for him.

I think he'll pull out a narrow victory a la Bush 2004.

The primary attacks have barely touched on Romney's big weakness: his years as a 'vulture capitalist'. And that is exactly how team Obama will portray him, if they have any sense at all.
(Although the primaries have certainly opened other wounds, especially among women, that will likely keep hurting him all the way up to the November.) Americans are not well disposed towards Big Business or the 1%, and Romney is basically a poster-child for both groups.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Romney is in striking distance in most polls while being hammered on all sides in the primary. That's good news for him.

I think he'll pull out a narrow victory a la Bush 2004.

The primary attacks have barely touched on Romney's big weakness: his years as a 'vulture capitalist'. And that is exactly how team Obama will portray him, if they have any sense at all.
(Although the primaries have certainly opened other wounds, especially among women, that will likely keep hurting him all the way up to the November.) Americans are not well disposed towards Big Business or the 1%, and Romney is basically a poster-child for both groups.

Angry populism hasn't won an election in a long time, and it's especially unlikely to work for an incumbent.

If Obama wants to run as the candidate of Occupy, he'll have a lot bigger problems than Romney.

[5280]

I'm not sure if Obama is running on a populism road ATM, he has to reenergize his base first, and that's slowly coming back.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Romney.  I think he's just not-lame enough to squeak out a victory over the Scumbag Prez^TM.  Obama is too loose-cannon to win the comfort vote, IMO.

...what?

All the data and polls show Obama as vulnerable.  Especially the jobs data and unemployment.  When summer comes and $4 gas is here to stay, then Romney really has a chance. 

I don't know what polls and stats everyone else is looking at, but Romney really has a chance to win this, especially if he can win over white Catholics. 

Romney's platform is "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget"  and he can win on those themes. 

The election is in late autumn, which is typically after gas starts to come down. The jobs data so far has been fairly good; while anaemic in this particular month it shows no signs of becoming more so and may very well be revised upward.

Winning over white Catholics doesn't make up for losing women by fifteen or twenty points and Hispanics by forty or fifty these days.

______

Romney wins if something unexpectedly bad happens. I sincerely hope nobody wants that.

[5280]

Romney.  I think he's just not-lame enough to squeak out a victory over the Scumbag Prez^TM.  Obama is too loose-cannon to win the comfort vote, IMO.

...what?

All the data and polls show Obama as vulnerable.  Especially the jobs data and unemployment.  When summer comes and $4 gas is here to stay, then Romney really has a chance. 

I don't know what polls and stats everyone else is looking at, but Romney really has a chance to win this, especially if he can win over white Catholics. 

Romney's platform is "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget"  and he can win on those themes. 

Winning over white Catholics doesn't make up for losing women by fifteen or twenty points and Hispanics by forty or fifty these days.

______

Romney wins if something unexpectedly bad happens. I sincerely hope nobody wants that.

Guarantee about half of those votes are probably fraud.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Romney.  I think he's just not-lame enough to squeak out a victory over the Scumbag Prez^TM.  Obama is too loose-cannon to win the comfort vote, IMO.

...what?

All the data and polls show Obama as vulnerable.  Especially the jobs data and unemployment.  When summer comes and $4 gas is here to stay, then Romney really has a chance. 

I don't know what polls and stats everyone else is looking at, but Romney really has a chance to win this, especially if he can win over white Catholics. 

Romney's platform is "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget"  and he can win on those themes. 

Winning over white Catholics doesn't make up for losing women by fifteen or twenty points and Hispanics by forty or fifty these days.

______

Romney wins if something unexpectedly bad happens. I sincerely hope nobody wants that.

Guarantee about half of those votes are probably fraud.

Okay

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm not sure if Obama is running on a populism road ATM, he has to reenergize his base first, and that's slowly coming back.

I disagree. Obama's current support is something right out of the GOP playbook. Republicans were hoping their base would turn out because it hates BHO... except OBAMA's support is now turning out even more because they hate the GOP field. It's been tough for Republicans to shake that "idiot" image ever since George W. Bush... Santorum rekindles that image, especially with his contraception crap.

Once the field is clear and Romney is the nominee though, he can frame the debate however he wants. It will make everything a bit fresher, and I think Obama's advantage will go away. BHO's boost came from seething hate of GOP rhetoric. Romney won't play into those people's hands.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

All the data and polls show Obama as vulnerable.  Especially the jobs data and unemployment.  When summer comes and $4 gas is here to stay, then Romney really has a chance.

Except the projections are that $4 gas is not here to stay.  Either the Iranian situation heats up to a hot war, in which case what happens there and not the economy will likely determine the election outcome, or the market adjusts to the continued Iranian crisis and starts coming down.

Romney's platform is "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget"  and he can win on those themes. 

When I wasn't looking, did Romney already shake his Etch-a Sketch and erase those tax cuts he was talking about during the primaries?  For people who care about "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget" as their primary issues, Romney comes across as yet another politician who pays lip service to those two goals while pursuing policies that do the opposite.

[Eraserhead]

The lead may or may not shift around a few times but Obama will win. I wouldn't be surprised if it was by a slightly bigger margin than 2008 either. Romney makes John Kerry seem downright likable by comparison and that's really going to be a huge problem for him.