So what is Romney's path to 270? I don't see it.
Without CO, he gets to 272 with:
2008 + IN + NC + VA + OH + FL + (NV or IA).
Don't see NV flipping if CO has swung this much. Even Iowa's probably more viable, but that's not exactly likely either. For Romney to have a realistic chance, Obama needs to start losing in states where the last Democrat they didn't vote for was Mike Dukakis... and President Obama is just not a Michael Dukakis candidate.
Doesn't recent polling suggest that Michigan is probably a better prospect for Romney than Iowa? Or even Pennsylvania. I've no idea how useful the polling is in that sense..
Seems to me that Romney can safely assume Indiana this time, will have to fight just a bit for North Carolina, and a bit more for Florida, but those two look reasonably positive for him, while Colorado and Nevada look beyond the pale.
New Hampshire is a very strong possibility, and while Ohio and Virginia look quite bad for him, both Pennsylvania and Michigan look closer than expected.
While this map is still his most likely threading of the needle:
I think this map is more likely than the one below it:
However of course this is my prediction and I stand by it:
