This thread is a riot.
Virtually everybody agrees that Colorado will be very tight. I don't have time to correct the multitude of erroneous statements mentioned here, but let me take a moment to correct just a few of them.
1.) No, Colorado is not "full of pot-smoking hipsters, ski bums, gays, etc." It sounds like somebody's forgotten that Boulder comprises approximately 5% of the total state population. Shocking though it may be, South Park isn't actually a good look at what Colorado is like. And, frankly, as a CU-Boulder alum, even Boulder isn't quite like that. Colorado is generally a right-leaning state.
Never been in Boulder... but don't expect to see Mork and Mindy living there, either. Don't rely on outmoded stereotypes. The Capone gang does not operate with impunity in Chicago anymore.
This poll corresponds with a sudden increase in approvals of the President and collapses of Republican campaigns. Maybe Mitt Romney will no longer have to take outrageous right-wing stances to co-opt primary challengers, but nobody can say that the damage hasn't been done.
There are several potential explanations of any trend. One may be that this one is a fluke or a reflection of a transitory movement in the polls nationwide. Another may be that President Obama is doing what highly-successful incumbents do, which is breaking away toward a landslide. See me in November for an explanation.
Colorado does not have the polarizing characteristics of a real estate collapse (Nevada) or anti-immigrant frenzy (Arizona) that would shift Mexican-Americans even more sharply to the Left. Colorado is more like New Mexico in that respect. Still, New Mexico is a disaster for Republicans on the whole.
Trending GOP? The GOP may have been picking up registered voters just in time for the primaries (there is no real action in the Democratic primary for the highest offices). When the Democrats have their GOTV drive in the late summer and early autumn that will be reversed powerfully. Colorado has been drifting D with respect to the US as a whole since 2000. As a Republican you do not want the Presidential election to hinge upon Colorado, which has no Governors who can give help to the Republican nominee.
Colorado went 51-46 for Dubya in 2004, 51-42 for Bush in 2000, and barely went for Dole in 1996 (in a Clinton blowout). Democrats underperformed in Colorado in 1992. Democrats held a Senate seat with an appointed pol and held the Governorship in 2010 in a bad year for Democrats. It has been lean-R in Presidential elections over the last 20 years but close to the national average in 2008, and probably lean-D in 2010. I'd estimate that Colorado is about D+1 now -- probably more D than Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, or Iowa now.
If Colorado is slightly R-leaning and the President has a double-digit lead in Colorado, then the President looks to be on the way to a landslide analogous to Eisenhower in 1956.
But not compared to some moderate and even states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida that voted in GOP extremists who are becoming very unpopular very quickly.
OK, a little hyperbole. Colorado has competitors in California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and New Mexico.
