This thread is a riot.
Virtually everybody agrees that Colorado will be very tight. I don't have time to correct the multitude of erroneous statements mentioned here, but let me take a moment to correct just a few of them.
1.) No, Colorado is not "full of pot-smoking hipsters, ski bums, gays, etc." It sounds like somebody's forgotten that Boulder comprises approximately 5% of the total state population. Shocking though it may be, South Park isn't actually a good look at what Colorado is like. And, frankly, as a CU-Boulder alum, even Boulder isn't quite like that. Colorado is generally a right-leaning state.
2.) The Colorado GOP is actually is pretty good shape here. We'll likely maintain our 4-3 congressional split, and might even pick up CD-7. We'll also probably keep the state house, and possibly pick up the state Senate. And we'll do all of that even with an Obama win here. If Romney wins, we'll likely pick up CD-7 and both chambers of the legislature. If Obama wins, the status quo will hold in terms of statewide politics. That's not wishful thinking, but just basic numbers. I'm active in local GOP politics, in Jefferson County, specifically, and the feeling here is very, very optimistic. Keep in mind, we actually made legislative gains in 2008, despite the huge Democratic wave. The GOP is in better financial shape here than the Democrats, and the GOP has opened up a significant active voter registration lead (see below). It's hard to get upset about one early Democratic poll when everything else is going so well.
3.) In terms of the poll itself, did anybody actually dig into it? Obama is getting only 58% of the Latino vote. The Latino vote here has actually been trending right for a while. Kerry did better than Obama among Latinos in Colorado, and the trend evidently continues.
Second, active voter registration is R: 37 D: 32 and U: 30. And the GOP has been out-registering Democrats by a sizable 6,000 vote margin since only January. PPP has been doing their thing with swing states for a few months, and it's so old. When they actually screen for likely voters, and get the actual voter numbers right, you'd find a very close race in a state that has been trending GOP for a couple of years now.
4.) 2010 was actually a good GOP year in Colorado. We took back the state house, picked up a state senate seat, won 3 of 5 statewide races, picked up two Congressional seats to get a majority GOP delegation, and in 2011 the GOP helped knock down a tax hike for education by a 2:1 margin. The Senate race was blown, the gubernatorial race was lost when Scott McInnis' campaign imploded. Other than that, it was a good year here.
5.) The Massachusetts of the west? Yeah, sure.
Okay. Spin aside, this is still the same state that Obama won by nine last time and is leading by thirteen this time around. I don't think "everyone agrees" that Colorado will be "very tight". I'm not saying it won't be tight, necessarily, but as of now there's no indication that Colorado's particularly close.
I expect it to be ultimately comparable to Wisconsin - Romney will make a halfhearted attempt to win it, but it's not part of his path to 270, and will stay blue by a decent margin.
