Australian Federal Polls

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They're not too bad... people tend to paint pollsters with the same varnish that we tend to give to US pollsters. Overall, most Australian pollsters are on the level... all except Morgan, who are just crap.

They've been among the more Coalition-sympathetic (in terms of numbers) - but they're definitely picking up on what's being observed in both Nielsen and Newspoll... Gillard's approval rating and popularity are increasing, as are the ALP's prospects - Abbott's personal standing, which was not an issue before because Gillard was either in the same position, or worse, is starting to have a dragging effect on the Coalition. Which is something a lot of people knew was a HUGE risk with Abbott.

[Smid]

When they started out, they were terrible (a self-selecting internet poll). Whereas Morgan is probably about Labor +4, early on, Essential was probably Labor +6. They corrected their issues with methodology, however (I don't know what they changed, but saw a press release saying they had changed their methodology) and now, as Polnut notes, they regularly resemble Newspoll and Neilson numbers, so I think they're fairly accurate. I don't automatically adjust them in my mind anymore.

[Zanas]

It seems Abbott is slowly doing a "Romney" with women in this upcoming election... I've seen Gillard's response to him in Parliament on sexism, it was pretty bloody !

[Velasco]

I've seen a photo with Abbott haranguing his followers backed by banners saying: Julia Gillard is a b**** and a w****. Enough said. On the other hand Gillard didn't make a favour to the cause of feminism trying to protect Peter Slipper, accused of sexual harassment.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've seen a photo with Abbott haranguing his followers backed by banners saying: Julia Gillard is a b**** and a w****. Enough said. On the other hand Gillard didn't make a favour to the cause of feminism trying to protect Peter Slipper, accused of sexual harassment.

Um... Slipper was accused of sexually harassing another man.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll - 13 November 2012

Primary vote
ALP: 36% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (+2)
Greens: 10% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 49% (-1)
Coalition: 51% (+1)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 37% (+3)
Abbott: 27% (-3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 52% (+1)
Abbott: 63% (+5)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 46% (+1)
Abbott: 32% (-2)

....yeah, so that's another poll with Abbott's personal ratings slipping further, in fact, these are his worst numbers since becoming leader in December 2009.

[Velasco]

Um... Slipper was accused of sexually harassing another man.

Really? I've watched the video and read about that argument in the House of Representatives in a Women's blog. It wasn't mentioned that the harassed was a man, but it mentions a "collaborator" (in Spanish, "colaborador" can refer to a man or functions as "generic masculine") There was a quote of some article in the Sidney Morning Herald by Michelle Grattan. The link seems to be broken and I can't find the text right now, but it seems that Grattan wrote (roughly) something like this: "Maybe (Gillard) has become in the heroine of some feminists belting Abbott, but she has betrayed feminism trying to protect Slipper, condemning the messages isn't enough mitigating". In general sexual harassment is not good seen by feminists, regardless of the victim's sex.

It seems that the gap is reducing according to that poll.

[RogueBeaver]

Either Abbott fixes his personal image or runs only on the party brand and ABL sentiment, since he doesn't have a positive policy agenda.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Either Abbott fixes his personal image or runs only on the party brand and ABL sentiment, since he doesn't have a positive policy agenda.

I assume you mean 'Anyone but Labor'?

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah.

[Barnes]

Personally, I still feel like the Liberals will win with a comfortable majority (a la Labor 2007), but I feel the 2PP is now much closer to what the results will be - perhaps add a point or two to the Libs.  However, those polls that had Labor 10 points down just weren't going to happen.

[RogueBeaver]

Of course not- both parties have a floor of 46-47%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Either Abbott fixes his personal image or runs only on the party brand and ABL sentiment, since he doesn't have a positive policy agenda.

This is the problem...

Abbott's been leader for 3 years, for 2.5 of those years he's waged one of the most vicious negative opposition strategies I've ever seen... he felt comfortable in doing that a) because it's his natural habitat and b) he expected to ride anti-Labor sentiment to the election, so who he is or what his party represents is somewhat irrelevant.

Abbott suddenly trying to change his image, namely with his wife coming to his defense, was a horrible mistake. Because by wheeling the wife out, it pretty much just confirmed ALL of the reporting about Abbott's problem with women... any other attempts to soften his image would be viewed with deep, deep suspicion by the public.

The other key problem is that the Coalition's entire strategy was built around public paranoia about the carbon tax... and all the personal issues that supposedly raises about Gillard... however, Gillard is now more personally popular than Abbott and the carbon tax is here and most people have just gotten on with it. Plus, once people know how difficult it would be to undo ... the appetite will wane further. So the ABL sentiment that's been there for nearly two years... has diminished considerably over the last six months... and it is not a winning strategy.

The ALP needs to get its primary vote to around 38% to have a chance at winning re-election next year. At the moment, the Coalition would JUST squeak in if an election were held now. But what's really telling to me are two things. The first is that Abbott used to be possessed of a clear confidence, and Gillard looked hunted and a bit mechanical... but recently, Gillard looks a lot more confident and Abbott has noticeably 'shrunk'. The other thing, Rudd/Gillard leadership rumblings have stopped dead...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Personally, I still feel like the Liberals will win with a comfortable majority (a la Labor 2007), but I feel the 2PP is now much closer to what the results will be - perhaps add a point or two to the Libs.  However, those polls that had Labor 10 points down just weren't going to happen.

For the first time since Gillard secured Government, I think it's a coin-toss. This isn't just me saying it, my friends inside the bubbles on both sides think it's a new ball game and whatver momentum there is, is behind the Government. The issue is whether it's enough and in the right places to protect them.

[RogueBeaver]

You would need 39 Senate seats for repeal, which he might never get- and usually bad things happen to Coalition governments that get a de jure majority. All depends on what happens in the campaign. If Abbott blows it a la 1993 then he'd be a sure goner, though dunno who'd replace him. I guess Bishop or Hockey.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bishop's got the problem of being an unmarried career woman... to the Liberal base.. that's definitely not a positive. If you see her married in the next 3-7 months, you'll know why. Hockey's got what I call Beazley syndrome (despite Beazley being probably the best PM we've never had) he's too nice.

I genuinely think, the only option is Turnbull... Howard was a disastrous Opposition Leader before getting it right next time...

[Barnes]

Personally, I still feel like the Liberals will win with a comfortable majority (a la Labor 2007), but I feel the 2PP is now much closer to what the results will be - perhaps add a point or two to the Libs.  However, those polls that had Labor 10 points down just weren't going to happen.

For the first time since Gillard secured Government, I think it's a coin-toss. This isn't just me saying it, my friends inside the bubbles on both sides think it's a new ball game and whatver momentum there is, is behind the Government. The issue is whether it's enough and in the right places to protect them.

I certainly hope Labor stays in, and I certainly see momentum moving Gillard's way, but I just feel the Abbot sleaze-machine will rear its nasty head - although, that has started to become rather detrimental to Abbot...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Personally, I still feel like the Liberals will win with a comfortable majority (a la Labor 2007), but I feel the 2PP is now much closer to what the results will be - perhaps add a point or two to the Libs.  However, those polls that had Labor 10 points down just weren't going to happen.

For the first time since Gillard secured Government, I think it's a coin-toss. This isn't just me saying it, my friends inside the bubbles on both sides think it's a new ball game and whatver momentum there is, is behind the Government. The issue is whether it's enough and in the right places to protect them.

I certainly hope Labor stays in, and I certainly see momentum moving Gillard's way, but I just feel the Abbot sleaze-machine will rear its nasty head - although, that has started to become rather detrimental to Abbot...

Exactly... if one of your primary issues is being perceived as nasty and negative... running a dirty/sleazy/negative campaign doesn't serve your purposes.

The Coalition cannot hope the Gillard/ALP momentum stalls, they have to provide a positive agenda to counter what the ALP is proposing... I genuinely can't see that working with Abbott as leader.

[RogueBeaver]

The base doesn't want him, too wet.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The base doesn't want him, too wet.

That's true, but if polling shows Turnbull is more palatable ...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll - 26/11/2012

Primary vote
ALP: 36% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (NC)
Greens: 11% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 49% (NC)
Coalition: 51% (NC)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 37% (NC)
Abbott: 30% (+3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 52% (NC)
Abbott: 61% (-2)

Net Satisfaction
Gillard: -15%
Abbott: -31%

Preferred PM
Gillard: 46% (NC)
Abbott: 33% (+1)

...the thing to consider, is that 2010 was a genuinely pissed-off electorate, so using the 2010 preference flows might not be too wise.

[RogueBeaver]

Didn't we just go through the voter-screen debate in the US election? Except now the roles are reversed.

In all seriousness, looks like Abbott is stabilizing for now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Didn't we just go through the voter-screen debate in the US election? Except now the roles are reversed.

In all seriousness, looks like Abbott is stabilizing for now.

...and who was right in the end? plus it's a different kind of discussion, even Antony Green thinks the 2010 preference flows would be misleading applied 2 years down the track, all I'm saying is that when people are asked in addition to their primary vote intention, to discuss their preferences, there have only been a few of these polls (so the sample size is horrific), but the ALP generally picks up about 1.3% in the TPP vote when they determine the vote based on current preference intentions. It's an anecdotal point, but I doubt is all that important.

Abbott recovered from rock-bottom to weak. I never thought he could go any lower than that, plus it's interesting that his 'recovery' was not at the expense of Gillard.

[RogueBeaver]

Expecting 2004 and getting 1998 would be a letdown for him, dunno if that would cause long-term damage. Hell, would Gillard even resign if Abbott got a small majority?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In 2010, Abbott was probably the single-biggest reason they Coalition couldn't get a majority in its own right. Analysis and exit polling suggested that dislike/mistrust of Abbott and his world-view moved last minute undecideds toward Gillard.

If it comes down to a coin-toss next year, the preferred PM standing should be taken into consideration. As a general rule, it's never been a strong indicator... however, if Gillard can maintain the preferred PM number and keep the primary in the mid-late 30s and the TPP within spitting distance, I think that could be enough.

It'd be another nail-biter.

The issue for the Coalition is finding ALP seats to nab, my bet is both Denison and Melbourne will go 'home' to the ALP... the Coalition state governments in QLD, VIC and NSW are having a dragging effect on the coalition nationally.... there's quite a bit of buyer's remorse going on. Put it this way, looking at the architecture of this future race, all things being equal... you wouldn't exactly be panic-stricken if you were Gillard. As I've been told by friends inside both sides, neither side wants an election now... you did not hear that from the Coalition 6 months ago.