Australian Federal Polls

[RogueBeaver]

54-46 is heckuva more realistic 2PP number than 59-41. I'd say 1996 rather than 1983 will be the template come E-Day.

[Smid]

54-46 is heckuva more realistic 2PP number than 59-41. I'd say 1996 rather than 1983 will be the template come E-Day.

Absolutely more realistic, although there have been some unrealistic election results of late - Queensland and NSW both had 2PP results of >10% for the governing party - I think Queensland was 63%, and NSW was higher. Prior to that, I thought the 2002 Victorian result was an anomoly, where Labor received 57%. Of course, the larger the electoral population, the harder it is to get a margin like that... federal Labor is nowhere near as unpopular in Victoria and South Australia (and presumably Tasmania, but the sample size is too small for Newspoll to release their figures there and likewise for the ACT). Labor's support in those states and the ACT will make it harder for the nation-wide 2PP to blow out to the levels experienced in Queensland and NSW.

[Smid]

I missed last fortnight's poll, but Newspoll is out again today. first bracketed number is the election result, second bracketed number is change since last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor (38%) 30% (-1)
Coalition (43.6%) 46 (+2)
Greens (11.8%) 12 (-2)
Others (6.6%) 12 (+1)

Two Party Preferred
Labor 45 vs 55 Coalition (Labor down 1 since last poll, election was Labor 50.1 vs 49.9 Coalition).

1146 respondents, MOE +/-3%.

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm... I still say something like 53-47 is the final result but I could be wrong.

[You kip if you want to...]

Hmm... I still say something like 53-47 is the final result but I could be wrong.

I think it'll be similar to the 2007 (only reversed). The obvious rule being oppositions always do well mid-term. Julia remains preferred PM as well, even if she is hated.

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm... I still say something like 53-47 is the final result but I could be wrong.

I think it'll be similar to the 2007 (only reversed). The obvious rule being oppositions always do well mid-term. Julia remains preferred PM as well, even if she is hated.

Same here.

[Vote UKIP!]

What surprises me was that Abbott wasn't sacked after the 2010 election. Still, Mr. Abbott seems to be on his way to be the next PM. He might win in 2013 by the fact he is not Gillard (or at least Labor).

The right in America has regained much of its power because they weren't Obama or the Democrats. I suspect that is what's happening here.

[RogueBeaver]

What surprises me was that Abbott wasn't sacked after the 2010 election. Still, Mr. Abbott seems to be on his way to be the next PM. He might win in 2013 by the fact he is not Gillard (or at least Labor).

The right in America has regained much of its power because they weren't Obama or the Democrats. I suspect that is what's happening here.

Why would he be sacked? He took them from a double-digit deficit to a tie. Whitlam and Howard didn't win their first rodeos either.

[You kip if you want to...]

What surprises me was that Abbott wasn't sacked after the 2010 election. Still, Mr. Abbott seems to be on his way to be the next PM. He might win in 2013 by the fact he is not Gillard (or at least Labor).

The right in America has regained much of its power because they weren't Obama or the Democrats. I suspect that is what's happening here.

Why would he be sacked? He took them from a double-digit deficit to a tie. Whitlam and Howard didn't win their first rodeos either.

Yeah, it's easy to forget that Abbott did a huge amount better than anyone expected him to.

[Vote UKIP!]

What surprises me was that Abbott wasn't sacked after the 2010 election. Still, Mr. Abbott seems to be on his way to be the next PM. He might win in 2013 by the fact he is not Gillard (or at least Labor).

The right in America has regained much of its power because they weren't Obama or the Democrats. I suspect that is what's happening here.

Why would he be sacked? He took them from a double-digit deficit to a tie. Whitlam and Howard didn't win their first rodeos either.

Yeah, it's easy to forget that Abbott did a huge amount better than anyone expected him to.

Perhaps your right. I was probably thinking of the several leaders the British Tories had during the Blair-Brown era.

[Smid]

Newspoll and Nielson are both out today - Newspoll also has released their quarterly "polls by state and demographic breakdown" (see the first poll in this thread for last quarter's). Both are good polling firms, so I normally take a look at both to check they're roughly the same and then really just follow Newspoll. For the past couple of months at least, Newspoll seems to be consistently a point or two higher for Labor, but both are broadly in agreement. Anyway, I'll post the Newspoll here soon.

[Smid]

The poll was conducted from April to June - State sample sizes were 845 to 2,014. Tasmania was excluded from separate figures because the sample size was too small but included in the national total. The national sample size was 6,884. Margin of error was 1.2% nationally and 3.4% for the state with the smallest sample.

Primary vote at the election

Party:                    Labor     Coalition     Greens     Others
Nation-wide            38.0        43.6            11.8          6.6
NSW                       37.7         44.1            10.7          7.5
Vic                          42.8         39.6            12.7          4.9
Qld                         33.6         47.4            10.9          8.1
SA                          40.7         40.2            12.0          7.1
WA                         31.2         50.6            13.1          5.1
Male                       34            45               14             7
Female                   38            42               14             6
18-34                     34            35               22             9
35-49                     35            45               14             6
50+                        38            48               9               5
State Capitals        40.1         42.1            12.8          5.0
Non-Capitals          34.8         45.9            10.3          9.0


Primary vote in the latest poll

Party:                    Labor     Coalition     Greens     Others
Nation-wide             30           47               12            11
NSW                        29           47               12             12
Vic                           34           42               15              9
Qld                          22           54               11             13
SA                           33           45               10             12
WA                          32           48               11              9
Male                        28           49               11             12
Female                    31           44               14             11
State Capitals         30           46               14             10
Non-Capitals           28           49               10             13


Labor vs Coalition 2PP
                              Election                Poll
Nation-wide         50.1-49.9             44-56
NSW                     49.5-50.5             44-56
Vic                        55.3-44.7             51-49
Qld                       44.9-55.1             35-65
SA                        53.2-46.8             47-53
WA                       43.6-56.4             45-55
State Capitals      52.5-47.5             46-54
Non-Capitals        46.6-53.4             42-58

[RogueBeaver]

So 1975 all over again when I plug this into Green's 2010 swingometer, but ultimately I think the 2PP margin will be 5-7 points. So every QLD ALP MP goes down, including the Cabinet troika. Talk about Portillo moments, unless you guys call them Howard moments over there.

[Smid]

So 1975 all over again when I plug this into Green's 2010 swingometer, but ultimately I think the 2PP margin will be 5-7 points. So every QLD ALP MP goes down, including the Cabinet troika. Talk about Portillo moments, unless you guys call them Howard moments over there.

I agree with you that the swing reported in the poll is probably larger than swing if an election were actually held. Additionally, it's important to note that this poll was taken over the past few months and Labor was doing worse at the start of that period, compared to the end of that period, so that may have over-stated the swing slightly. That said, the Nielson poll out today had Labor's primary vote at 28%, compared to the Coalition's at 48%, and a 2PP of 58-42 in favour of the Coalition. All of Nielson's 1,400 respondants were polled this weekend just gone (Thursday night to Saturday night), so the same argument can't be used there (of it being a long-term poll).

[Platypus]

As I've talked about on the chat, Labor have a natural floor of somewhere between 40-45 seats, unless there is a particular event. Add the fact they're the current government, and the floor is about 50-55. which would still be a wipeout, but please don't start salivating over 25 or 30 members. Federal politics is not state politics, and VIC, SA, TAS, and the ACT are not NSW and QLD.

What may be a genuine possiblity though, and one that would be incredibly harmful to Labor going forward, is a truly awful result in the senate. I could very easily see the coalition getting three across the board, and maybe a fourth or at least a non-labor/greens fourth in a couple of states.

[Smid]

As I've talked about on the chat, Labor have a natural floor of somewhere between 40-45 seats, unless there is a particular event. Add the fact they're the current government, and the floor is about 50-55. which would still be a wipeout, but please don't start salivating over 25 or 30 members. Federal politics is not state politics, and VIC, SA, TAS, and the ACT are not NSW and QLD.

What may be a genuine possiblity though, and one that would be incredibly harmful to Labor going forward, is a truly awful result in the senate. I could very easily see the coalition getting three across the board, and maybe a fourth or at least a non-labor/greens fourth in a couple of states.

Agree with much of what you've said here, particularly about the state divide. I'd expect the polls to tighten closer to the election, but I also expected that in the NSW and Qld state elections. Highly unlikely for the Coalition to win a majority in the Senate (I think I'd say impossible, but can't remember how many seats the Greens and Labor won last election and therefore will carry over into the life of the new parliament) so I wouldn't worry about that if I were you. If Labor's serious about confronting the Greens, as they have implied over the past few days, then Labor will have to agree to the Coalition bill abolishing the Carbon Tax because a Double Dissolution results in lower quotas for the Senate (since there are 12 positions to be elected, not 6), which will make it easier for the Greens to hang onto seats at Labor's expense.

[Smid]

Latest Newspoll is out today. As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 31% (+1%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 38% (+2%)
Greens        (11.8%) 11% (-1%)
Others        (6.6%) 10% (-2%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 44% (-1%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 56% (+1%)

1141 Respondents, MoE +/-3%

[Talleyrand]

Here are my predictions.

The leaders will not change by the time for the next federal election, so both Gillard and Abbott will still be in place.
The 2PP margin will be something like 54-46.
Kevin Rudd will stand down at this election if he is not picked as party leader, likely putting Griffith at risk to the Liberals.
Labor will be reduced to 2 seats in Tasmania, Lyons and Franklin.
Labor will have 0-2 seats in Western Australia, with Brand gone.
Labor will lose Lingiari in the Northern Territory.
Labor will lose 2PP everywhere except Victoria, ACT, and possibly Tasmania.
Bill Shorten will get the leadership if he wants it after the election, but there will be a 50/50 chance he won't take it since Abbott will likely be in for at least 2-3 terms. If he does, his deputy will be either Greg Combet or Tanya Plibersek.

What are your thoughts/feedback on these? I've only been following Australian politics well for about six months, so these may not be the most accurate guesses.

[RogueBeaver]

Abbott wins bigger than John Howard did in '96? Weaker opponent (to say the least) but much better economy.

[Talleyrand]

Abbott wins bigger than John Howard did in '96? Weaker opponent (to say the least) but much better economy.

I really don't think the stronger economy part will pay that big of a role. Howard had an excellent economy and the trust of the people in 2007, but still went down by over 5 points. Gillard is an exceptionally poor candidate (whatever you think of her policies) who lacks charisma and credibility with the public. She's certainly no Paul Keating.

[Smid]

Here are my predictions.

The leaders will not change by the time for the next federal election, so both Gillard and Abbott will still be in place.
The 2PP margin will be something like 54-46.
Kevin Rudd will stand down at this election if he is not picked as party leader, likely putting Griffith at risk to the Liberals.
Labor will be reduced to 2 seats in Tasmania, Lyons and Franklin.
Labor will have 0-2 seats in Western Australia, with Brand gone.
Labor will lose Lingiari in the Northern Territory.
Labor will lose 2PP everywhere except Victoria, ACT, and possibly Tasmania.
Bill Shorten will get the leadership if he wants it after the election, but there will be a 50/50 chance he won't take it since Abbott will likely be in for at least 2-3 terms. If he does, his deputy will be either Greg Combet or Tanya Plibersek.

What are your thoughts/feedback on these? I've only been following Australian politics well for about six months, so these may not be the most accurate guesses.

Lingiari is a very big call, but that said, I was predicting Indiana for Obama back in about March 2008, so it's probably not a bigger call than that. I would be very surprised if it changed hands, however.

Lyons and Frankin retention for Labor isn't too out there... Bass is I think almost certain to change, and it's not outlandish to think Braddon might also. The real question, then, is Denison. A few seat polls recently suggest he's probably doing well. I don't think he'll get Liberal preferences, but if he's doing as well on primary vote as recent polls suggest, he'll probably finish first and get enough preferences (even if everyone preferenced against him, he'd probably pick up enough leakages to fall across the line, but I think at the very least, the Greens will preference him and he'll just get there). One of the recent polls had him first and the Liberals second - if that's the case, Labor would really need to hope for Greens preferences and other independent preferences to pull in front of the Liberals, and then to pick up Liberal preferences to pull in front of Wilkie, whereas I think it's more likely that if it's 1. Wilkie, 2. Liberals, he'll almost certainly win with preferences from the Greens and Labor. That said, Labor might preference the Liberals, because a Liberal MP would probably only hold the seat for a single term, and then Labor could win the seat back, whereas Wilkie serving a second term would be harder to dislodge at the following election.

Brand is also a big call, but not an unrealistic one. I think Stephen Smith will retain Perth, so I don't think Labor will be reduced to 0 seats in WA. I could be wrong, though. The tougher question for WA is what happens in O'Connor (where the WA National ran against an incumbent Liberal, won, and announced he would sit on the crossbenches, not as part of the Coalition - I assume this means that there will be a Liberal candidate against him this election).

[RogueBeaver]

New Newspoll out. I'll wait for Smid to post the full thing but 2PP is 56/44 and primary 46-28.

[Smid]

New Newspoll out. I'll wait for Smid to post the full thing but 2PP is 56/44 and primary 46-28.

Indeed it is. Here are the numbers:

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 28% (-3%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 46% (-2%)
Greens        (11.8%) 11% (-)
Others        (6.6%) 15% (+5%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 44% (-) vs Coalition (49.9%) 56% (-)

1158 Respondents, MoE +/-3%

[RogueBeaver]

Primary slips below 30 again.

[Phony Moderate]

Any chance Gillard continues as Labor leader if the defeat is narrow enough?