Australian Federal Polls

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Morgan is a joke, I never EVER take them seriously.

Both Neilsen and Newspoll show a tightening towards the Government and Gillard pulling away as preferred PM - Abbott looks the most vulnerable he has since getting the leadership.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh Smiddy...

I agree with some of this, but the idea that Abbott & Co are somehow above the fray on 'personal attacks'? Come on.

Abbott has been the Coalition's Achilles' Heel... he has been the one that cannot do anything other than negativity. This close to an election, Abbott should be creating a narrative as to why THEY would be BETTER. Gillard is gaining traction for a number of reasons, 1. exploiting the general dislike and unease with Tony Abbott (and hardly lying about his previous statements) 2. the Carbon Price coming in and people realising the world has not collapsed (neutering the primary Coalition talking point) 3. Gillard looks stronger, she doesn't look as beleaguered as she did 6 months ago... Rudd's chances are gone... and she's pretty much secure in the leadership now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Essential Research

Approval
Gillard: 41% (NC)
Abbott: 33% (-4)

Disapproval
Gillard: 49% (-2) (lowest net disapproval for nearly 2 years)
Abbott: 58% (+4) (his highest ever net disapproval)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 45%
Abbott: 32%

Primary vote
ALP: 37% (NC)
Coalition: 45% (-1)
Greens: 9% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 48%
Coalition: 52%

Issue is women are turning HARD against Abbott...

Abbott's over all net disapproval: -25
Abbott's net disapproval with women: -30

Gillard's lead as preferred PM: 13%
Gillard's lead as preferred PM with women only: 21%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They're not too bad... people tend to paint pollsters with the same varnish that we tend to give to US pollsters. Overall, most Australian pollsters are on the level... all except Morgan, who are just crap.

They've been among the more Coalition-sympathetic (in terms of numbers) - but they're definitely picking up on what's being observed in both Nielsen and Newspoll... Gillard's approval rating and popularity are increasing, as are the ALP's prospects - Abbott's personal standing, which was not an issue before because Gillard was either in the same position, or worse, is starting to have a dragging effect on the Coalition. Which is something a lot of people knew was a HUGE risk with Abbott.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've seen a photo with Abbott haranguing his followers backed by banners saying: Julia Gillard is a b**** and a w****. Enough said. On the other hand Gillard didn't make a favour to the cause of feminism trying to protect Peter Slipper, accused of sexual harassment.

Um... Slipper was accused of sexually harassing another man.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll - 13 November 2012

Primary vote
ALP: 36% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (+2)
Greens: 10% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 49% (-1)
Coalition: 51% (+1)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 37% (+3)
Abbott: 27% (-3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 52% (+1)
Abbott: 63% (+5)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 46% (+1)
Abbott: 32% (-2)

....yeah, so that's another poll with Abbott's personal ratings slipping further, in fact, these are his worst numbers since becoming leader in December 2009.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Either Abbott fixes his personal image or runs only on the party brand and ABL sentiment, since he doesn't have a positive policy agenda.

I assume you mean 'Anyone but Labor'?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Either Abbott fixes his personal image or runs only on the party brand and ABL sentiment, since he doesn't have a positive policy agenda.

This is the problem...

Abbott's been leader for 3 years, for 2.5 of those years he's waged one of the most vicious negative opposition strategies I've ever seen... he felt comfortable in doing that a) because it's his natural habitat and b) he expected to ride anti-Labor sentiment to the election, so who he is or what his party represents is somewhat irrelevant.

Abbott suddenly trying to change his image, namely with his wife coming to his defense, was a horrible mistake. Because by wheeling the wife out, it pretty much just confirmed ALL of the reporting about Abbott's problem with women... any other attempts to soften his image would be viewed with deep, deep suspicion by the public.

The other key problem is that the Coalition's entire strategy was built around public paranoia about the carbon tax... and all the personal issues that supposedly raises about Gillard... however, Gillard is now more personally popular than Abbott and the carbon tax is here and most people have just gotten on with it. Plus, once people know how difficult it would be to undo ... the appetite will wane further. So the ABL sentiment that's been there for nearly two years... has diminished considerably over the last six months... and it is not a winning strategy.

The ALP needs to get its primary vote to around 38% to have a chance at winning re-election next year. At the moment, the Coalition would JUST squeak in if an election were held now. But what's really telling to me are two things. The first is that Abbott used to be possessed of a clear confidence, and Gillard looked hunted and a bit mechanical... but recently, Gillard looks a lot more confident and Abbott has noticeably 'shrunk'. The other thing, Rudd/Gillard leadership rumblings have stopped dead...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Personally, I still feel like the Liberals will win with a comfortable majority (a la Labor 2007), but I feel the 2PP is now much closer to what the results will be - perhaps add a point or two to the Libs.  However, those polls that had Labor 10 points down just weren't going to happen.

For the first time since Gillard secured Government, I think it's a coin-toss. This isn't just me saying it, my friends inside the bubbles on both sides think it's a new ball game and whatver momentum there is, is behind the Government. The issue is whether it's enough and in the right places to protect them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bishop's got the problem of being an unmarried career woman... to the Liberal base.. that's definitely not a positive. If you see her married in the next 3-7 months, you'll know why. Hockey's got what I call Beazley syndrome (despite Beazley being probably the best PM we've never had) he's too nice.

I genuinely think, the only option is Turnbull... Howard was a disastrous Opposition Leader before getting it right next time...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Personally, I still feel like the Liberals will win with a comfortable majority (a la Labor 2007), but I feel the 2PP is now much closer to what the results will be - perhaps add a point or two to the Libs.  However, those polls that had Labor 10 points down just weren't going to happen.

For the first time since Gillard secured Government, I think it's a coin-toss. This isn't just me saying it, my friends inside the bubbles on both sides think it's a new ball game and whatver momentum there is, is behind the Government. The issue is whether it's enough and in the right places to protect them.

I certainly hope Labor stays in, and I certainly see momentum moving Gillard's way, but I just feel the Abbot sleaze-machine will rear its nasty head - although, that has started to become rather detrimental to Abbot...

Exactly... if one of your primary issues is being perceived as nasty and negative... running a dirty/sleazy/negative campaign doesn't serve your purposes.

The Coalition cannot hope the Gillard/ALP momentum stalls, they have to provide a positive agenda to counter what the ALP is proposing... I genuinely can't see that working with Abbott as leader.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The base doesn't want him, too wet.

That's true, but if polling shows Turnbull is more palatable ...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll - 26/11/2012

Primary vote
ALP: 36% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (NC)
Greens: 11% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 49% (NC)
Coalition: 51% (NC)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 37% (NC)
Abbott: 30% (+3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 52% (NC)
Abbott: 61% (-2)

Net Satisfaction
Gillard: -15%
Abbott: -31%

Preferred PM
Gillard: 46% (NC)
Abbott: 33% (+1)

...the thing to consider, is that 2010 was a genuinely pissed-off electorate, so using the 2010 preference flows might not be too wise.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Didn't we just go through the voter-screen debate in the US election? Except now the roles are reversed.

In all seriousness, looks like Abbott is stabilizing for now.

...and who was right in the end? plus it's a different kind of discussion, even Antony Green thinks the 2010 preference flows would be misleading applied 2 years down the track, all I'm saying is that when people are asked in addition to their primary vote intention, to discuss their preferences, there have only been a few of these polls (so the sample size is horrific), but the ALP generally picks up about 1.3% in the TPP vote when they determine the vote based on current preference intentions. It's an anecdotal point, but I doubt is all that important.

Abbott recovered from rock-bottom to weak. I never thought he could go any lower than that, plus it's interesting that his 'recovery' was not at the expense of Gillard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In 2010, Abbott was probably the single-biggest reason they Coalition couldn't get a majority in its own right. Analysis and exit polling suggested that dislike/mistrust of Abbott and his world-view moved last minute undecideds toward Gillard.

If it comes down to a coin-toss next year, the preferred PM standing should be taken into consideration. As a general rule, it's never been a strong indicator... however, if Gillard can maintain the preferred PM number and keep the primary in the mid-late 30s and the TPP within spitting distance, I think that could be enough.

It'd be another nail-biter.

The issue for the Coalition is finding ALP seats to nab, my bet is both Denison and Melbourne will go 'home' to the ALP... the Coalition state governments in QLD, VIC and NSW are having a dragging effect on the coalition nationally.... there's quite a bit of buyer's remorse going on. Put it this way, looking at the architecture of this future race, all things being equal... you wouldn't exactly be panic-stricken if you were Gillard. As I've been told by friends inside both sides, neither side wants an election now... you did not hear that from the Coalition 6 months ago.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

First Newspoll of 2013... all my caveats on election-year polling understood?

Primary vote
ALP: 38% (+6)
Coalition: 43% (-2)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 49% (+3)
Coalition: 51% (-3)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 45% (+2)
Abbott: 33%

Satisfaction
Gillard: 38% (+2)
Abbott: 29% (+1)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 49% (-3)
Abbott: 58% (-1)

Net Satisfaction
Gillard: -11
Abbott: -29