Australian Federal Polls

[RogueBeaver]

Is Team Blue above or below 55 in 2PP?

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm... Coalition leads even among youth voters. Interesting. Wonder what a seat projection would look like. Slightly better than '96 methinks.

Oh, and Abbott should totally use this line in the debate when those taxes come up: "I want to see you squirm out of this load of rubbish over a number of months. There will be no easy execution for you. You have perpetrated one of the great mischiefs on the Australian public with this thing."

[RogueBeaver]

Given that the result of upcoming federal elections is not in doubt, how large a coalition majority should we be expecting in either house? 

Antony Green's swingometer (I'm using the 2010 model) only goes to 57%, a 10-point swing. 57 means 109 Coalitionists, 38 Labor, 3 Other. I'm guessing something like 120 Coalition seats, though I could be wrong.

Smid: When was the last time they polled this badly?

[RogueBeaver]

What happened? I know that was a bit of a high, but still. Or did Swan leak some sort of pre-budget goodie?

[RogueBeaver]

Still lethal though.

[RogueBeaver]

Ironic that all the ALP dries will get wiped out when they're the ones who their party will need to rebuild.

[RogueBeaver]

Spain 2011? Abbott would have 11x seats with Labor in the mid-30s at those numbers. Bigger than Fraser 1975.

[RogueBeaver]

I hope the ALP continues thinking that way for many defeats to come.

[RogueBeaver]

Obviously. I'd expect, say, 53/47 2PP when all is said and done.

[RogueBeaver]

54-46 is heckuva more realistic 2PP number than 59-41. I'd say 1996 rather than 1983 will be the template come E-Day.

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm... I still say something like 53-47 is the final result but I could be wrong.

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm... I still say something like 53-47 is the final result but I could be wrong.

I think it'll be similar to the 2007 (only reversed). The obvious rule being oppositions always do well mid-term. Julia remains preferred PM as well, even if she is hated.

Same here.

[RogueBeaver]

What surprises me was that Abbott wasn't sacked after the 2010 election. Still, Mr. Abbott seems to be on his way to be the next PM. He might win in 2013 by the fact he is not Gillard (or at least Labor).

The right in America has regained much of its power because they weren't Obama or the Democrats. I suspect that is what's happening here.

Why would he be sacked? He took them from a double-digit deficit to a tie. Whitlam and Howard didn't win their first rodeos either.

[RogueBeaver]

So 1975 all over again when I plug this into Green's 2010 swingometer, but ultimately I think the 2PP margin will be 5-7 points. So every QLD ALP MP goes down, including the Cabinet troika. Talk about Portillo moments, unless you guys call them Howard moments over there.

[RogueBeaver]

Abbott wins bigger than John Howard did in '96? Weaker opponent (to say the least) but much better economy.

[RogueBeaver]

New Newspoll out. I'll wait for Smid to post the full thing but 2PP is 56/44 and primary 46-28.

[RogueBeaver]

Primary slips below 30 again.

[RogueBeaver]

This is her last election as leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Dead cat bounce or did Lab have some good news recently? Biggest primary bump we've seen in a while.

[RogueBeaver]

Summer bounce, right?

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm. Once Parliament resumes there should be another uptick. I expect the final 2PP margin to be no more than 53-54.

[RogueBeaver]

I second TexasDem's question. We haven't seen Lab tied or ahead in over a year.

[RogueBeaver]

OK, so the last one was a rogue poll. Still smooth sailing.

[RogueBeaver]

Let's see if this becomes a trend.

[RogueBeaver]

Who would replace Abbott in said scenario? Hockey?