Australian Federal Polls

[Talleyrand]

Here are my predictions.

The leaders will not change by the time for the next federal election, so both Gillard and Abbott will still be in place.
The 2PP margin will be something like 54-46.
Kevin Rudd will stand down at this election if he is not picked as party leader, likely putting Griffith at risk to the Liberals.
Labor will be reduced to 2 seats in Tasmania, Lyons and Franklin.
Labor will have 0-2 seats in Western Australia, with Brand gone.
Labor will lose Lingiari in the Northern Territory.
Labor will lose 2PP everywhere except Victoria, ACT, and possibly Tasmania.
Bill Shorten will get the leadership if he wants it after the election, but there will be a 50/50 chance he won't take it since Abbott will likely be in for at least 2-3 terms. If he does, his deputy will be either Greg Combet or Tanya Plibersek.

What are your thoughts/feedback on these? I've only been following Australian politics well for about six months, so these may not be the most accurate guesses.

[Talleyrand]

Abbott wins bigger than John Howard did in '96? Weaker opponent (to say the least) but much better economy.

I really don't think the stronger economy part will pay that big of a role. Howard had an excellent economy and the trust of the people in 2007, but still went down by over 5 points. Gillard is an exceptionally poor candidate (whatever you think of her policies) who lacks charisma and credibility with the public. She's certainly no Paul Keating.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/labor-has-no-hope-with-julia-gillard/story-e6frgczx-1226430400815

Labor failed to secure candidates in five Queensland seats, two of which were held by Labor before the last election (Dawson and Flynn). A third, Herbert, was also notionally Labor until 2010. If this happens, will the party just pick some college students/minor party activists to be its sacrificial lambs or will it not contest these seats at all? (I know in Quebec last year, the NDP picked a number of college students to contest seemingly safe seats and they won. While I understand that situation was quite different than the one for Queensland Labor, it seems better to have people in the waiting.)

http://www.news.com.au/national/kevin-rudd-renominates-for-labor-preselection-in-south-brisbane-seat-of-griffith/story-e6frfkvr-1226409700526

So Rudd is renominating. I understand he thinks he could become PM before the next election, but after that, his political career doesn't seem to have too bright a future. Could we see a Griffith by-election after the election? (Lol, maybe Anna Bligh could take a crack at the seat.)

[Talleyrand]

So the latest Newspoll has Labor and the Coalition tied at 50% on 2PP. Is there an outlier or are there plausible explanations for this result?

[Talleyrand]

Read his post guys, the number in the brackets is from the election. Labor is down 55-45.

We're not referring to Smid's post from September 3rd. We mean the Newspoll that came out today.

http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-gillard-pull-ahead-in-latest-polls-20120917-260ww.html

[Talleyrand]

OK, so the last one was a rogue poll. Still smooth sailing.

[Talleyrand]

And now the newspoll is back to 50-50? Can someone explain what on Earth is going on?