What would your 2006 U.S. Senate strategy be?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Poor Guilani - He's too socially liberal for the national Republicans, and NY is too Democratic for him to win.  He'd make it an interesting race before losing, though.

[A18]

Poor Guilani - He's too socially liberal for the national Republicans, and NY is too Democratic for him to win.  He'd make it an interesting race before losing, though.

So why are there polls out showing he'd beat Hillary by five points?

[Keystone Phil]

Poor Guilani - He's too socially liberal for the national Republicans, and NY is too Democratic for him to win.  He'd make it an interesting race before losing, though.

So why are there polls out showing he'd beat Hillary by five points?

Results showed Bush winning re-election and Jfern doesn't believe it. Don't think he'll believe a poll (unless the Democrat is winning...)

[AuH2O]

Guiliani would win going away.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There was polls showing Bush as being competetive in NY at this point in 2003, so that should tell you how much polls mean at this point.

[AuH2O]

No but there is a basis in reality.

Guiliani is just loved by people up there. Hillary is admittedly underrated right now, but against Rudy she would be defeated.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Poor Guilani - He's too socially liberal for the national Republicans, and NY is too Democratic for him to win.  He'd make it an interesting race before losing, though.

So why are there polls out showing he'd beat Hillary by five points?

Same reason that there were polls with Hillary and Lazio tied.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Harold ford is a nice guy, but he has no chance of winning the Senate seat in TN unless he has a 'come to Jesus experience'  and becomes  Republican.  His family is too well known in TN, and that's not a positive for him.  He'll win Memphis (his Congressional district) and probably Nashville, but the rest of the state is solidly Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No but there is a basis in reality.

Guiliani is just loved by people up there. Hillary is admittedly underrated right now, but against Rudy she would be defeated.

I'm really sure that his convention speech will play so well in NY.

[YRABNNRM]

No but there is a basis in reality.

Guiliani is just loved by people up there. Hillary is admittedly underrated right now, but against Rudy she would be defeated.

I'm really sure that his convention speech will play so well in NY.

What did you expect him to go at a republican event?

[Notre Dame rules!]

Had Lazio not walked over to Hillary's podium, giving the Press a reason to crucify him, I believe he could have beaten her.

[ian]

TX, UT, IN are safe seats even with retirements, no need to invest money there.

That's a really crappy way of thinking.  Indiana has one Democratic Senator already; it's not impossible to get another one.  Utah could run either of the Matheson brothers and probably win unless the Republicans could pull someone really great out of their bag.  And Texas is not as Conservative as people want others to think.  It is somewhat likely that we could win a Senate seat in that state--I mean, cmon, North Dakota has 2 Democratic Senate seats!

[Jake]

TX, UT, IN are safe seats even with retirements, no need to invest money there.

That's a really crappy way of thinking.  Indiana has one Democratic Senator already; it's not impossible to get another one.  Utah could run either of the Matheson brothers and probably win unless the Republicans could pull someone really great out of their bag.  And Texas is not as Conservative as people want others to think.  It is somewhat likely that we could win a Senate seat in that state--I mean, cmon, North Dakota has 2 Democratic Senate seats!

The Democrats have NO chance of beating the Republicans in Texas for the foreseeable future.  Hutchison will win easily if she runs, and since she probably won't, Bonilla will win easily.

[Frodo]

i don't know at this point -it's too early in the process and we don't even know who the candidates are going to be.  ask me again by the end of this year, and by then i'll have an idea on what the hell i'd do to at least break even, at least in the Senate and Governors' races -as for the House, well, it's hopeless.   

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

TX, UT, IN are safe seats even with retirements, no need to invest money there.

That's a really crappy way of thinking.  Indiana has one Democratic Senator already; it's not impossible to get another one.  Utah could run either of the Matheson brothers and probably win unless the Republicans could pull someone really great out of their bag.  And Texas is not as Conservative as people want others to think.  It is somewhat likely that we could win a Senate seat in that state--I mean, cmon, North Dakota has 2 Democratic Senate seats!

Indiana we might have a shot at, but the other two are no goes. The Democrat party is basically dead in Texas and virtually nonexistance in Utah.

[nini2287]

TX, UT, IN are safe seats even with retirements, no need to invest money there.

That's a really crappy way of thinking.  Indiana has one Democratic Senator already; it's not impossible to get another one.  Utah could run either of the Matheson brothers and probably win unless the Republicans could pull someone really great out of their bag.  And Texas is not as Conservative as people want others to think.  It is somewhat likely that we could win a Senate seat in that state--I mean, cmon, North Dakota has 2 Democratic Senate seats!

Bayh was the son of a popular governor and used the family name to become highly repsected on his own right.  Indiana also seems to pretty devoid of any feasible Dem candidates (we lost the Governorship and a House seat in the last election), while there seems to be a few potential GOP noms in a state that went over 60% for Bush

The Republicans would have to pull something great out of their bag to win Utah?  I was in Utah this summer and there is nothing even remotely liberal about it.  With regards to the Matheson brothers, Scott would not win the seat (he lost by 15 points in the governor's race-why would he be competitive in the Senate?) and Jim has a slight chance of winning, but I doubt he would run since he represents a highly Republican seat and he's starting to settle into safety.

I do agree that Texas is not as Conservative as anyone thinks, but like Indiana the Dem bench is very shallow while the Republicans have a plethora of candidates they could put up and win with.

With respect to North Dakota, Dorgan and Conrad are both experienced incumbents who have long voting records of moderation (I'll be it people like Jim Matheson are very moderate as well, but he's not the incumbent), and once they retire the seats will probably fall to the Republicans.

[Q]

Today Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard (R-MI) dropped out of the race for the GOP nomination against Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).  Potential candidate Oakland County Prosecutor David Gorcyca (R-MI) also said he would not run.  This leaves only industrial engineer Bart Baron (R-MI) as an announced candidate against Stabenow.

Other potential GOP candidates:
- Jane Abraham, the wife of former Michigan senator and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham
- Detroit real estate developer Peter Cummings
- Rev. Keith Butler
- Domino's Pizza CEO David Brandon

Looks like a thin GOP bench in Michigan.

[Snowe08]

Here are my challenger candidates in each state.
ME - Run a strawman.  She's gonna crush whoever it is.

No kidding. Snowe won in 2000 - against a not entirely unpopular State Senate President, Mark Lawrence - with nearly 70% of the vote, and in over thirty years of elected office, she has never lost an election. Chris Potholm, in An Insider's Guide to Maine Politics: 1946-1996, called her "the standard against which all post-war political figures must be judged in terms of electoral success."

[Snowe08]

TX, UT, IN are safe seats even with retirements, no need to invest money there.

That's a really crappy way of thinking.  Indiana has one Democratic Senator already; it's not impossible to get another one.

On the other hand, Indiana is a deep red state, which - after the last election - has a Republican governor and Republican control of both houses of its state legislature. Bayh's re-election is an affirmation of the power of incumbency, rather than an affirmation of Indiana's vulnerability to a Democratic candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

after the last election - has a Republican governor and Republican control of both houses of its state legislature. Bayh's re-election is an affirmation of the power of incumbency, rather than an affirmation of Indiana's vulnerability to a Democratic candidate.

In all fairness the State House flips about a bit though. Still if Lugar retires, the GOP would be favourites to hold his seat.