"Half a re-alignment" : Part 1 of 3 - The Senate

[Ban my account ffs!]

When two bad candidates run for office, Minnesotans become more divided. 

Bush/Kerry is a good example.  The election was not "Bush vs. Kerry" it was "stay the course vs. change the course."  At the time, stay the course seemed like a better idea.  And Bush still lost.  Minnesota has voted Republican in the past, much like the Northeast in recent times, when the Democrats get full of themselves and its time to weed out the rotten ones. 

1978 comes to mind, and 1998 as well.  In 1998 everyone just went buck nutty and we elected a pro-wrestler for governor, probably the most libertarian governor the country has seen.  And we really loved him and then we hated him.  Libertarianism is all nice and fuzzy and warm from a distance, but when it means that class sizes increase from 20 to 30 in 3  years and schools have to talk about going to a 4 day school week to make ends meet, you have alienated the public and you might as well not even seek a second term.

In 2008 I can bet you that Norm Coleman will lose his seat.  His insistence upon keeping on in Iraq and his flip-floppy manner on everything else will flounder against a strong decisive opponent that appeals to the states tradition of establishment, big-business skepticism.

You'll hear people whine and complain about government waste and too much government control... but they are absolutely adamant in their positions about big business:  Screw with the little guy and we'll use our democratic rights to elect someone that will step on your neck.  That's the peoples' will, damn it.

[Nym90]

Bump.

So much for the structural Republican advantage in the Senate.

[Nym90]

Oh, and by this analysis there are now 48 natural Democratic seats and 40 natural Republican seats.

[pbrower2a]

So how does someone hold onto an 'un-natural' Senate seat?

1. Be around for a time -- a very long time. Incumbency aids any competent politician who can use his power as a legislator to bring home the pork-barrel spending and get government activity relocated into one's state. Look at Robert Byrd.

2. Be effective. That goes without saying.

3. Buck the Party as necessary. Don't put partisan loyalty above the sentiments and economic interests of one's state. GOP moderates like Chaffee in Rhode Island, Snowe and Collins in Maine, and Smith in Oregon are throwbacks to the time when the GOP dominated their region -- and are still around or were around for a long time. Democratic Senators in Arkansas, the Dakotas, and Nebraska are much more conservative than their Parties.


How to be a one-term Senator:

1. Be a partisan hack in a state that isn't particularly liberal or conservative. Pennsylvania is a prime example: ultra-liberals and ultra-conservatives alike fail there in statewide elections. A GOP hack can get away with it in Oklahoma and a Democratic hack can get away with it in Massachusetts... just don't try it in Ohio.

2. Fall short of the usual expectations.