Which of these scenarios is more likely?
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  Which of these scenarios is more likely?
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Poll
Question: Well?
#1
Romney wins New Mexico
 
#2
Obama wins Arizona
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: Which of these scenarios is more likely?  (Read 583 times)
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« on: April 12, 2012, 07:42:24 PM »

I'm thinking Option 2.

Discuss.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2012, 07:44:54 PM »

Romney's not going to win NM. The Latino vote is not going to take kindly to his firm immigration stance, and they are pretty pro-incumbent anyway. If Obama wins by a similiar margin, he could well very zip by in AZ, like he did in FL last time. There are enough moderates in Phoenix for him to pull it out.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2012, 07:51:19 PM »

Here's another interesting scenario:

Gary Johnson getting close to 10% in NM.

Of course it won't happen, but it'd be hilarious.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2012, 08:15:11 PM »

They did a poll a while back that showed a 40-20-20 race with Johnson in the mix. It was probably junk, though.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2012, 08:24:22 PM »

2. Obama winning Arizona isn't likely, but it's more likely than Romney taking New Mexico.

As for Johnson breaking double digits in New Mexico... that"d be entertaining but I doubt it. He might get like 5% though.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2012, 08:27:33 PM »

2. Obama winning Arizona isn't likely, but it's more likely than Romney taking New Mexico.

As for Johnson breaking double digits in New Mexico... that"d be entertaining but I doubt it. He might get like 5% though.

F**k it, Gary Johnson wins New Mexico and the Presidency.

And then I wake up.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2012, 09:00:38 PM »

If the polling trends hold like this into the fall, Obama has already won Arizona. There will be no home state advantage this time around.

If Romney wins NM, then he's already won IL, WA, OR, the entire Northeast with the possible exception of Vermont, and maybe even CA. So basically, everything.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2012, 09:07:32 PM »

Option 2.  NM was never ripe to begin with, and Gary Johnson only solidifies that.
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5280
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« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2012, 12:45:04 PM »

If the polling trends hold like this into the fall, Obama has already won Arizona. There will be no home state advantage this time around.

If Romney wins NM, then he's already won IL, WA, OR, the entire Northeast with the possible exception of Vermont, and maybe even CA. So basically, everything.
Bush won NM in 2004 by a slim margin, so that's probably not true of the latter states.
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Donerail
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« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2012, 04:38:53 PM »

If the polling trends hold like this into the fall, Obama has already won Arizona. There will be no home state advantage this time around.

If Romney wins NM, then he's already won IL, WA, OR, the entire Northeast with the possible exception of Vermont, and maybe even CA. So basically, everything.
Bush won NM in 2004 by a slim margin, so that's probably not true of the latter states.

And Gore only won New Mexico by 366 votes in 2000, and before that, from 1972-1992, a Republican always won New Mexico. Current governor's a Republican, governor before that a Democrat, and one before that a Republican.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2012, 04:58:00 PM »

New Mexico votes on a feeling.  You can't predict it based on even what it did in 2010.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2012, 05:21:25 PM »

New Mexico votes on a feeling.  You can't predict it based on even what it did in 2010.

Any way the wind blows?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2012, 05:25:57 PM »

If the polling trends hold like this into the fall, Obama has already won Arizona. There will be no home state advantage this time around.

If Romney wins NM, then he's already won IL, WA, OR, the entire Northeast with the possible exception of Vermont, and maybe even CA. So basically, everything.
Bush won NM in 2004 by a slim margin, so that's probably not true of the latter states.

And Gore only won New Mexico by 366 votes in 2000, and before that, from 1972-1992, a Republican always won New Mexico. Current governor's a Republican, governor before that a Democrat, and one before that a Republican.

But everyone's forgetting one big thing that's changed over the past decade. Look at the Latino community. Now look at how much the Latino community supports Romney. Given this current political climate, New Mexico would be more Democratic (in terms of large minority voting blocs that have a pretty high floor) than places like New York, due to the fact that there's a much larger Latino population, of which maybe 20% at this point support Mitt Romney.

Latino Population %:

New Mexico: 42.1
New York: 15.1
Illinois: 12.3
Connecticut: 9.4
Rhode Island: 8.7
Oregon: 8.0
Washington: 7.5
Massachusetts: 6.7

Whites are more fickle with voting Democratic, even in blue states. It's extremely unlikely that Romney can regain enough traction in the Latino community to even get back to McCain levels, much less Bush 2004 levels. Even though on paper, New Mexico looks less Democratic than some of these states, the new demographic is in control and the Republicans have made themselves dead to the Latino community on a national level. It's the same way that my home state gave Obama 47% of the PV in 2008, despite only 1 in 4 whites voting for him.
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5280
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« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2012, 06:28:31 PM »

Maybe NM will have lower turnout of Latinos in 2012, who knows.  What else can Obama run on with his record so far?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2012, 06:30:06 PM »

Maybe NM will have lower turnout of Latinos in 2012, who knows.  What else can Obama run on with his record so far?

I definitely believe that will be the case. I have a feeling that increased Democratic support within the Latino community will be somewhat proportional in cancelling out a reduced turnout, however.
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