NJ-Quinnipiac: Obama by 9, Romney/Christie down by 7

[Tender Branson]

President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 49 - 40 percent in the New Jersey presidential race, a lead that shrinks to 49 - 42 percent if Gov. Christopher Christie runs as Romney's vice presidential pick, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1736

[Tender Branson]

Sample looks too Republican though:

34% D, 25% R, 41% I

2008 was 44% D, 28% R, 28% I

Reweighted to 2008 numbers, it's 54-38 Obama and 54-40 Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Christie.

...

While this Quinnipiac poll looks too Romney friendly, the Rutgers poll looks too Obama friendly. If we average both of them (Obama+9 and Obama+27), we get Obama+18, which is about the reweighted 2008 result.

[Tender Branson]

Sample looks too Republican though:

34% D, 25% R, 41% I

Actual voter registration is roughly 33D, 20R, 47I.

Doesn't matter: Even in this scenario, Obama leads 52-37 if we re-calculate the poll numbers.