2012 Intrade rankings

[HagridOfTheDeep]

No one will be buying Obama after next Tuesday.

And I mean that in almost every sense, except for the one opebo is thinking.

[Likely Voter]

Proving my point on OH, Romney dropped 2 points this afternoon after the PPP OH poll came out, even though his RCP national avg actually ticked up a bit.  

If Romney has a big win on Tuesday we may see Romney finally break 45 with investors anticipating him moving into a big lead, but I think that until polls show him winning OH consistently, he wont be a favorite on inTrade.

[LiberalJunkie]

                    Today's Change
Obama 61.1%     (+2.3%)         281 EV
Romney 38.8%    (-2.4%)          257 EV

[LiberalJunkie]

                    Today's Change
Obama 62.5%     (+0.8%)         281 EV
Romney 37.5%    (-1.0%)          235 EV
Tossup  (Colorado, Virginia )       22 EV

[LiberalJunkie]

                    Today's Change
Obama 62.2%     (-0.1%)         281 EV
Romney 37.9%    (+0.3%)          235 EV
Tossup  (Colorado, Virginia )       22 EV

Interesting to see what changes tomorrow

[Eraserhead]

Intrade has this up now:

Barack Obama to win the second Presidential debate (according to CNN poll) 61.1%

Mitt Romney to win the second Presidential debate (according to CNN poll) 41.0%

WTF? Buy Romney! Considering the CNN/ORC Poll has been picking up extremely R-friendly audiences for these debates and was basically the only real poll that showed Ryan edging out Biden, I think it's safe to say that Obama has almost no chance at all of winning the debate according to this poll.

[LiberalJunkie]

                    Today's Change
Obama 63.2%     (+0.8%)         281 EV
Romney 36.5%    (-1.3%)          235 EV
Tossup  (Colorado, Virginia )       22 EV

Obama was leading Colorado and Virginia right after the debate. We will have to see some polls and I expect some states to flip.

[LiberalJunkie]

                    Today's Change
Obama 65.0%     (+1.5%)         281 EV
Romney 34.9%    (-1.6%)          235 EV
Tossup  (Colorado, Virginia )       22 EV

Obama was leading Colorado once again today but is very slightly to Romney but it and Virginia are slipping.

[Lief 🗽]

Good to see that the intraders think Obama is rebounding too.

[J. J.]

Intrade tends to be retrospective.  It is probably another "buy Romney" time, simply because his numbers will close there. 

[rockhound]

I just dropped $2K on Romney.  This is easy money now.

[© tweed]

after having a yawning gap for a long while Intrade and 538 are closely tracking each other.

[Franzl]

I just dropped $2K on Romney.  This is easy money now.

Others will be happy to get your money.

[Likely Voter]

Intrade tends to be retrospective.  It is probably another "buy Romney" time, simply because his numbers will close there. 

Actually being that Romney has dropped since the debate, the market appears to be anticipating a drop in the polls. How else to explain Romney going from +4 to +6 on Gallup while dropping on intrade

[J. J.]

Intrade tends to be retrospective.  It is probably another "buy Romney" time, simply because his numbers will close there. 

Actually being that Romney has dropped since the debate, the market appears to be anticipating a drop in the polls. How else to explain Romney going from +4 to +6 on Gallup while dropping on intrade

That is why I said that it was a buy opportunity. 

[Likely Voter]

Sure but it clearly isn't being retrospective

[LiberalJunkie]

                    Today's Change
Obama 62.2%     (-2.8%)         281 EV
Romney 37.7%    (+2.8%)          235 EV
Tossup  (Colorado, Virginia )       22 EV

I have no idea where the Romney bounce is from. Colorado and Virginia are barley changed. D.C. still at...65%...

[LastVoter]

                    Today's Change
Obama 62.2%     (-2.8%)         281 EV
Romney 37.7%    (+2.8%)          235 EV
Tossup  (Colorado, Virginia )       22 EV

I have no idea where the Romney bounce is from. Colorado and Virginia are barley changed. D.C. still at...65%...

It's lack of Obama's bounce in national polls, Obama will bounce back those 3% if there's a change in national polls tomorrow.

[© tweed]

it also should be noted that the volume is low enough that the national and state contracts don't necessarily have to move in unison.

[LiberalJunkie]

                    Today's Change
Obama 61.1%     (-0.8%)         281 EV
Romney 39.0%    (+0.8%)        248 EV
Tossup  (Colorado)                       9 EV

Romney gaining in national numbers but not state in numbers. Also D.C. is Finally not 65% chance for Obama

[Ljube]

Romney is still undervalued.

[J. J.]

Romney is still undervalued.

He's probably still a "buy" but it might be tempted to sell short tomorrow and then get back in after the debate.

[J. J.]

Romney is hovering around 40.  Sell short.  Either way, you've made a profit. 

[Likely Voter]

The weird thing is that Romney was in the 40s for most of the summer when he was trailing by a couple of points nationally and not doing that great on the map. When he brought the race to a tie at the RNC he hit 45. He is certainly doing better now than he was in the summer and arguably better than he was at the end of the RNC (being that Obama was bound to get some kind of bump out of the DNC). So Romney still feels undervalued by around 5.  Like I said in another thread, if the RCP avg for OH flips Romney's way he will shoot up to 55 or 60.

[J. J.]

The weird thing is that Romney was in the 40s for most of the summer when he was trailing by a couple of points nationally and not doing that great on the map. When he brought the race to a tie at the RNC he hit 45. He is certainly doing better now than he was in the summer and arguably better than he was at the end of the RNC (being that Obama was bound to get some kind of bump out of the DNC). So Romney still feels undervalued by around 5.  Like I said in another thread, if the RCP avg for OH flips Romney's way he will shoot up to 55 or 60.

I think, in terms of the market, the time to take a profit.  You can jump back in after the debate, if conditions warrant.