2012 Intrade rankings

[Cliffy]

It's a conspiracy.............

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

What's going on? Mittens up to 45 and Obama down to 53?

[LiberalJunkie]

It's a conspiracy.............

Oh yay! cliffy is here....anyways Ohio had Obama winning it by 5% now it's romney by 2% very strange...it's not like a poll just came out with Romney up by 7.

[LiberalJunkie]

Now Obama is up again lol

[J. J.]

What's going on? Mittens up to 45 and Obama down to 53?

Libya.

Romney was creeping up all day, but then he started moving in the early evening.

OH has really moved, and at some points, is below 50 for a D win.  

[LiberalJunkie]

I don't know when to post the map it's always changing lol.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't know when to post the map it's always changing lol.

I don't know where you're looking but Intrade has shown Mittens +6 to +6.5 and Obama -5.5 to -6.5 for most of the night.

I don't know where the map is though.

[SirMuxALot]

The aggregate wisdom of markets predicts much more than it reacts.  You don't need to look for the news moving this market right now, it probably doesn't exist right now.  The news will come later if the market's prediction is correct.

[J. J.]

The aggregate wisdom of markets predicts much more than it reacts.  You don't need to look for the news moving this market right now, it probably doesn't exist right now.  The news will come later if the market's prediction is correct.

I actually go with this being reflective, at least short term.

[LiberalJunkie]

Crazy night on Intrade

                    Today's Change
Obama 54.7%     (-6.1%)                243 EV
Romney 45.4%    (+5.7%)               261 EV
Tossup  (Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa)       36 EV

[SirMuxALot]

Wisconsin, Iowa last trade numbers are very stale.  They should still be lean Obama.  The bid/ask midpoints (roughly) put those at:

IA: O-59, R-40
WI: O-61, R-38

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Wisconsin, Iowa last trade numbers are very stale.

That's because the Republican Party is very stale.

[SirMuxALot]

That's because the Republican Party is very stale.

Did you even notice that what I said was a nod towards Obama's EC numbers - i.e., they should be higher than LJ's map indicates?  Or did you just see the blue state avatar and fire off a snarky response without comprehending?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That's because the Republican Party is very stale.

Did you even notice that what I said was a nod towards Obama's EC numbers - i.e., they should be higher than LJ's map indicates?  Or did you just see the blue state avatar and fire off a snarky response without comprehending?

I'm just telling it like it is.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The markets seems to have no liquidity whatsoever.  I don't have any money on intrade, but from the volume of shares on offer, it looks like I could boost Obama's chances by 1% for less than $5,000.  This seems to be a ridiculous bargain for a presidential campaign spending millions of dollars everyday, considering how much attention this market gets.  And this is by far the highest volume political market from what I can tell!

[they don't love you like i love you]

Weird bubbles are not uncommon on InTrade at all, anyone recall Ron Paul at 7% to win the GOP nomination in 2008 and Al Gore pulling similar numbers on the Dem side?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

OH is light blue again...

[Likely Voter]

The state markets are so small that a few hundred dollars can make a big difference. The Romney v Obama market is the only one that is substantial but even that one can see swings if a single big buyer comes in with a five digit buy. That being said I think yesterday there was some possible over enthusiasm from Romney buyers possibly from a good polling day for Romney and maybe some anticipation of Trump or even the Bengazi emails. Things have settled down again to what is probably a fair price for Romney around 43. I thought Romney was worth maybe 44-45 yesterday but Obama's good polling day today brings that down a bit.

[J. J.]

The numbers don't seem to be manipulated; investors were selling Obama, and a D win in OH. 

[ajb]

Even on the market on who wins the presidency, we're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 000 swinging the market yesterday. Which would be a staggering amount of money for me to bet, but is obviously not that much in the grand scheme of things. And, as Nate Silver points out, all the other betting markets have Obama significantly higher (and more stable) than Intrade did yesterday, which should be an opportunity for arbitraging if the markets are at all liquid.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus

[BM]

Obama is climbing back up to 60%. He should be well over that number considering Ohio is absolutely in love with him.

[J. J.]

Even on the market on who wins the presidency, we're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 000 swinging the market yesterday. Which would be a staggering amount of money for me to bet, but is obviously not that much in the grand scheme of things. And, as Nate Silver points out, all the other betting markets have Obama significantly higher (and more stable) than Intrade did yesterday, which should be an opportunity for arbitraging if the markets are at all liquid.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus

There was also the belief that Romney was undervalued on Intrade.  He was around 37% prior to the third debate. 

[BM]

I hope more Republicans waste their money on attempting to drive up Romney's odds to make themselves feel better about the state of the race. The lengths these people will go to delude themselves is hilarious at this point, yet also still scary. They're going to explode when Obama is declared the winner of Ohio relatively early in the night

[J. J.]

I hope more Republicans waste their money on attempting to drive up Romney's odds to make themselves feel better about the state of the race. The lengths these people will go to delude themselves is hilarious at this point, yet also still scary. They're going to explode when Obama is declared the winner of Ohio relatively early in the night

Few if any are.  It was natural for someone undervalued to increase in value.  No delusion nor manipulation. 

[ajb]

Even on the market on who wins the presidency, we're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 000 swinging the market yesterday. Which would be a staggering amount of money for me to bet, but is obviously not that much in the grand scheme of things. And, as Nate Silver points out, all the other betting markets have Obama significantly higher (and more stable) than Intrade did yesterday, which should be an opportunity for arbitraging if the markets are at all liquid.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus

There was also the belief that Romney was undervalued on Intrade.  He was around 37% prior to the third debate.  

If so, he remains significantly more undervalued on all the other betting markets out there, many of which are larger and more sophisticated than Intrade. Why, then, has Romney's price not risen so much on those other markets? If the markets are operating efficiently, then Romney's price should be basically the same on each market.