NC and FL in election

[Adam Griffin]

North Carolina is becoming more moderate due to influences from around the country and the slow but steady "trickle-down" effect that has leeched from from the Northeast and is taking VA and NC along for the ride. Georgia and to some extent, South Carolina, aren't too far away from benefiting from this effect.

I think Florida, however, will remain a toss-up for 10-15 years. Geez, I've typed that line like three times in three different posts on here in the past 30 minutes.

[Adam Griffin]

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By the erstwhile tradition of the GOP - Romney is doomed. Santorum did just fine for his first run out winning 10 states off Romney the 'inevitable'.

Or do you forget that's why it was Romney's turn this time?

There'll be even less fuel for Santorum in 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

I get Obama winning counties like Buncombe, home of Asheville, but can anyone explain to me how he was competitive in the more rural mountain counties?

1) Yankees, although there's quite a few in NE GA as well. Not sure why the effect wasn't as notable.

2 & 3)

2 reasons - It's Appalachia(poverty) and moderate race relations in NC.
There was "moderate" Democratic governor during Civil Rights era.

4) Media markets - This may be the ticket. Look at 2008 and look at the extreme tip of NC (Clay and Cherokee Counties). They are in the Chattanooga media market, along with much of NW GA and SE TN. The rest of those areas went ~10 points more Democratic than those two counties.

[Adam Griffin]

The social wing that Santorum champions will be even weaker in 2016. Four more years of social progressive shifts will make him even more of an extremist than he was in this cycle. I'm sure whatever is left of the base in 2016 will still love him, but there will probably be a repeat of 2012 where you have several conservative candidates that will selfishly split the vote and allow a moderate to get it. Plus, there are a lot of really strong moderate Republicans (Christie, Jindal, Rubio, Daniels) that will or may be running in 2016, which will more than likely suck any remaining oxygen out of the mix for Santorum.

[Adam Griffin]

The social wing that Santorum champions will be even weaker in 2016. Four more years of social progressive shifts will make him even more of an extremist than he was in this cycle. I'm sure whatever is left of the base in 2016 will still love him, but there will probably be a repeat of 2012 where you have several conservative candidates that will selfishly split the vote and allow a moderate to get it. Plus, there are a lot of really strong moderate Republicans (Christie, Jindal, Rubio, Daniels) that will or may be running in 2016, which will more than likely suck any remaining oxygen out of the mix for Santorum.

Jindal and Rubio are moderates, now? If they are moderates in this crazy world then I change my mind, I am one too.

I probably should have put a '/' in between strong and moderate. Hell, G.W.'s a moderate by today's crazy crop.