Fox News Poll- Romney beats Obama (user search)
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Author Topic: Fox News Poll- Romney beats Obama  (Read 4562 times)
Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« on: April 12, 2012, 05:52:00 PM »

Somewhat odd outlier or some sort of bounce from Santorum dropping out. I'd be more inclined to believe the former but we shall see if any other polling backs this up.

Romney +2 on a sample that disapproves of Obama 42-51.



Also this. That sums to roughly an R+4 oversample or thereabouts, and besides, it's Fox News.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2012, 10:51:04 PM »

Keep the rationalizing and the excuses coming. 

I love reading them and really enjoy all your squirming.

The onus is on you to explain why we should take a Fox News poll seriously, genius.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 34,426


« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2012, 11:00:13 PM »

Somewhat odd outlier or some sort of bounce from Santorum dropping out. I'd be more inclined to believe the former but we shall see if any other polling backs this up.


Well, you got your wish my friend.

The brand spanking new Rasmussen poll has Romney up by 5 over Obama, Romney 48, Obama 43.

OK, let the excuses and rationalization begin.

I'm waiting..........Cheesy

IT'S RASMUSSEN. The only thing that needs to be excused or rationalized is taking it a jot more seriously than Zogby at this point.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 34,426


« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2012, 11:41:21 PM »
« Edited: April 14, 2012, 11:52:51 PM by Nathan »

It is ridiculous to brush Rasmussen off as 'inaccurate'. Their sample might be off but they were very good in the past couple presidential races. And how dare you leftist hacks brush them off as "Republican" then tout PPP's numbers when they are a Democratic pollster?

It's not solely because they're Republican, it's because their sampling, bizarre swings, and general quality have in fact suffered greatly over the past few years. PPP was much more accurate in 2010 and actually was found to exhibit a slight Republican bias.

In this particular case, Rasmussen has been a few points more Republican than the other pollsters, or had oddly high undecideds, or exhibited strange swings, or some combination of the three at quite a few points in this cycle. Polls that would (will?) give me cause for concern at this point would be Gallup, PPP, or any of various state polls. If those do show Romney tied with or with-MOE-ahead-of Obama at this point I'll gladly accept it (for given values of 'to accept') as a genuine 'presumptive nominee' bounce, which I confide will be short-term unless something goes wrong or the President does something stupid.

Until then, it's a couple of right-leaning pollsters understandably trying to capitalize on the perception that there perhaps should be a 'presumptive nominee' bounce and/or using weird samples like they have a history of doing.

If Rasmussen's polling is borne out further down the line I'll gladly retract the extreme suspicion that I have of it presently.

Mitt must be at 300% in Texas. There's no other way to reconcile this with the dozens of state polls by every polling outfit around.

This as well.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,426


« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2012, 10:56:54 PM »

The bump, if it's real, would be from the 'start of the race' and the optics for Romney of actually being a presumptive nominee, relative to the months and months of Obama-Romney polling before this.

The problem for Romney going forward is that he is either still the same person now as he was a week ago or he has left a truly massive swath of evidence from having opportunistically changed to be otherwise.
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