How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:37:48 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4
Author Topic: How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?  (Read 12317 times)
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 13, 2012, 12:12:48 AM »

I had a thread like this a while back, so I thought I'd start a new one.


So how will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?  Maps are recommended, of course!  Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2012, 12:16:36 AM »

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,701
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2012, 12:20:41 AM »

It'd probably look something like this:



I'll no doubt do a prediction map later.

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

Are we giving the FPÖ voters to Romney? Then again I'm not sure who exactly they would support, none of the third parties really work since Pat Buchanan in 2000.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2012, 12:23:50 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2012, 12:38:08 AM by RockyIce »

I think my state would vote 50% Obama, 49% Romney. Turnout for Republicans will be higher, Obama turnout will be lower. Jefferson, Broomfield counties flip to REP and a few counties in the south.  Close election.

2012
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2012, 12:30:05 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2012, 12:34:41 AM by MilesC56 »

Probably slightly worse than 2008. Only 4 parishes are actually trending D.

59-39 Romney. I'd say 37% is Obama's floor and his ceiling should be about 41%.

Logged
fezzyfestoon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,204
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2012, 12:30:20 AM »

Jersey is easy so I'll go with that for now:


I'll do Pennsylvania and North Carolina at some point...
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2012, 01:05:35 AM »

Romney 51 / 48 Obama

Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,701
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2012, 01:06:15 AM »

Jersey is easy so I'll go with that for now:


I'll do Pennsylvania and North Carolina at some point...

You think Romney will win Salem but not Somerset? Obama was actually the first Democrat since 1964 to win Somerset so if the state swings against him (which I'm not convinced of), he'd almost certainly lose it.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2012, 01:09:26 AM »

Where do you get map tool for this kind of thing?
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,701
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2012, 01:09:49 AM »

MS Paint.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2012, 01:13:10 AM »

For California, the big question is if Romney loses so badly that he fails to win Orange County.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2012, 01:16:05 AM »

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

Are we giving the FPÖ voters to Romney? Then again I'm not sure who exactly they would support, none of the third parties really work since Pat Buchanan in 2000.

Some of the FPÖ voters vote Romney, some for Obama, many stay at home. This is based on polls for France, in which many FN voters would back Hollande in a run-off. Same story with the ÖVP, but many ÖVP voters would back Obama, because Obama is basically a ÖVP-man.

Here is a likely county map:



Just substitute "2010" with "2012" ... Wink
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2012, 01:32:37 AM »

ah f[inks] I should quoted the posts to see the url's I thought atlas had something for counties too.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2012, 01:41:06 AM »

Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2012, 01:43:53 AM »


What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,043
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2012, 01:46:46 AM »

Clark obviously votes for Obama, barring some kind of landslide nationwide defeat.  Assuming Obama wins the state, he'll likely take Washoe again, and probably Carson City again.  Anything else was McCain country in '08, though of the random empty counties, Mineral seems marginally favorable to the Dems these days.  Romney is guaranteed Lincoln county no matter what, of course.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2012, 01:50:00 AM »

When setting up a hypothetical Austrian Exit Poll, I come up with slightly different numbers:

28% FPÖ (25% Romney, 20% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 45% non-voters)
28% SPÖ (10% Romney, 70% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 10% non-voters)
23% ÖVP (35% Romney, 35% Obama, 10% Stein, 5% Others, 15% non-voters)
14% Greens (5% Romney, 10% Obama, 75% Stein, 5% Others, 5% non-voters)
  4% BZÖ (50% Romney, 15% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 25% non-voters)
  3% Others (10% Romney, 10% Obama, 10% Stein, 10% Others, 60% non-voters)

Total: 21% Romney, 36% Obama, 16% Stein, 5% Others, 22% non-voters

Total (excl. non-voters): 27% Romney, 46% Obama, 21% Stein, 6% Others
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2012, 01:55:19 AM »

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2012, 01:56:10 AM »


What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.
I just took a map from wiki, less effort than print screen.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2012, 01:57:57 AM »


What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.
I just took a map from wiki, less effort than print screen.

Should be a key at the top right of your keyboard for it. Didn't know if you were aware of it; it's about as easy as it gets.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2012, 02:35:42 AM »

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SPÖ/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SPÖ voters who prefer the ÖVP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2012, 02:41:44 AM »

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SPÖ/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SPÖ voters who prefer the ÖVP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.
Still I find it strange, because I think the  ÖVP isn't nearly as right-wing as Romney(if you don't count MA governor build).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2012, 02:50:15 AM »

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SPÖ/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SPÖ voters who prefer the ÖVP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.
Still I find it strange, because I think the  ÖVP isn't nearly as right-wing as Romney(if you don't count MA governor build).

These are only my hypothetical calculations anyway, there's no way to prove it, unless we get a poll in the fall that has crosstabs by party.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2012, 03:02:50 AM »

WA:

If Obama improves with working-class whites, he may win Spokane; if he deteriorates, he'll probably lose Klickitat and Wahkiakum.  Beyond that, I don't expect Washington to swing much.  Obama has probably maxed out on counties besides Spokane.  There are a few others Romney might take back in a victory scenario -- basically all the Bush '04 counties plus possibly Mason...although Skagit might be beyond redemption for the Republicans.

sry no pretty map
Logged
greenforest32
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,625


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2012, 03:47:29 AM »

I'm thinking something close to this:

Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 13 queries.