How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?

[Tender Branson]

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

[Tender Branson]

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

Are we giving the FPÖ voters to Romney? Then again I'm not sure who exactly they would support, none of the third parties really work since Pat Buchanan in 2000.

Some of the FPÖ voters vote Romney, some for Obama, many stay at home. This is based on polls for France, in which many FN voters would back Hollande in a run-off. Same story with the ÖVP, but many ÖVP voters would back Obama, because Obama is basically a ÖVP-man.

Here is a likely county map:



Just substitute "2010" with "2012" ...

[Tender Branson]

When setting up a hypothetical Austrian Exit Poll, I come up with slightly different numbers:

28% FPÖ (25% Romney, 20% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 45% non-voters)
28% SPÖ (10% Romney, 70% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 10% non-voters)
23% ÖVP (35% Romney, 35% Obama, 10% Stein, 5% Others, 15% non-voters)
14% Greens (5% Romney, 10% Obama, 75% Stein, 5% Others, 5% non-voters)
  4% BZÖ (50% Romney, 15% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 25% non-voters)
  3% Others (10% Romney, 10% Obama, 10% Stein, 10% Others, 60% non-voters)

Total: 21% Romney, 36% Obama, 16% Stein, 5% Others, 22% non-voters

Total (excl. non-voters): 27% Romney, 46% Obama, 21% Stein, 6% Others

[Tender Branson]

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SPÖ/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SPÖ voters who prefer the ÖVP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.

[Tender Branson]

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SPÖ/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SPÖ voters who prefer the ÖVP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.

Still I find it strange, because I think the  ÖVP isn't nearly as right-wing as Romney(if you don't count MA governor build).

These are only my hypothetical calculations anyway, there's no way to prove it, unless we get a poll in the fall that has crosstabs by party.