Will Utah be Romney's best state in the general?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yes, and it will trend massively to him. Granted, it doesn't matter, as Obama will carry the Western states that matter.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Yes, because the only other alternative is Oklahoma, and given the current matchup, I can see Obama picking off a few counties in the Eastern part of the Sooner State in November.  Romney will still win Oklahoma with a 60/38 margin, most likely, but Obama should win a few counties.  We won't deliver all 77 counties to the Republican like we did in 2004 and 2008.

[Miles]

Probably so. I'm wondering if he'll break 75% there though.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Probably so. I'm wondering if he'll break 75% there though.

No, the rise of urban socialism will ensure Salt Lake City won't change much from last time.

[5280]

Obama only picked up Moab county in the east and two near Salt Lake City. Salt Lake county might flip to REP this election cycle, it was close.

[firennice]

The four strongest Republican states in the past

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

They all trend about 65% each cycle.  I don't know that they will change much.

[Zioneer]

He'll hit at least 70%, but I don't think Romney will scrape 75%. There's Salt Lake City of course, but also Park City and the old labor towns. Additionally, there's a growing population of Mormon Paulites running around in Utah, so they'll probably go for a write-in for Paul or a vote for whomever the Libertarian candidate is.

Not under any circumstances will it hit 80%.

[America First]

The four strongest Republican states in the past

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

They all trend about 65% each cycle.  I don't know that they will change much.

Romney is a weaker candidate than McCain in general, but better among Mormons.  So he will improve in Utah and lose his edge in the other states that aren't Idaho, which has its high population of Mormons as well.  Maybe Wyoming will stay about the same.  It has quite a few Mormons as well.  In Oklahoma, Obama will close his gap.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The four strongest Republican states in the past

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

They all trend about 65% each cycle.  I don't know that they will change much.

Romney is a weaker candidate than McCain in general, but better among Mormons.  So he will improve in Utah and lose his edge in the other states that aren't Idaho, which has its high population of Mormons as well.  Maybe Wyoming will stay about the same.  It has quite a few Mormons as well.  In Oklahoma, Obama will close his gap.

I don't know what you mean by close his gap. He did just as poorly as Kerry, and he ain't gonna do better than Gore.

[bgwah]

Probably...

Still, non-Mormon Utahns voted close to 80% Obama last time. I'm not sure how they'll react to Romney.

And it's not like there's a lot of room for turn-out growth among Mormons.

[greenforest32]

The four strongest Republican states in the past

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

The Western Bible Belt™

[Tender Branson]

What else would it be ? Romney breaks 70 there, maybe even gets 75%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The four strongest Republican states in the past

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

The Western Bible Belt™

Idaho and Wyoming are not particularly religious states, and have a higher rate of non-adherents than most states and the country at large (so does Utah too for that matter.)

[greenforest32]

The four strongest Republican states in the past

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

The Western Bible Belt™

Idaho and Wyoming are not particularly religious states, and have a higher rate of non-adherents than most states and the country at large (so does Utah too for that matter.)

It is interesting how they're so right-wing and supposedly nonreligious.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153479/Mississippi-Religious-State.aspx

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, 31.5% of Americans are non-religious? It might be time to get a second Congressman. I suppose if Bernie Sanders announced he was an atheist, it wouldn't change much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, 31.5% of Americans are non-religious? It might be time to get a second Congressman. I suppose if Bernie Sanders announced he was an atheist, it wouldn't change much.

Non-religious based on Gallup's criteria in the poll, not atheist.

I've joked before that I'm even more underrepresented than atheists in Congress, since there isn't anyone in Congress affiliated either with the Vineyard or any type of "hipster" church...

[greenforest32]

Wow, 31.5% of Americans are non-religious? It might be time to get a second Congressman. I suppose if Bernie Sanders announced he was an atheist, it wouldn't change much.

Non-religious based on Gallup's criteria in the poll, not atheist.

I've joked before that I'm even more underrepresented than atheists in Congress, since there isn't anyone in Congress affiliated either with the Vineyard or any type of "hipster" church...

Yeah, how they defined it:

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[Nichlemn]

Interesting, this is the first unanimous poll I've ever seen with more than a handful of votes.

[Brittain33]

Probably...

Still, non-Mormon Utahns voted close to 80% Obama last time. I'm not sure how they'll react to Romney.

And it's not like there's a lot of room for turn-out growth among Mormons.

Right. I don't see how anything changes significantly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most likely.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I voted no because while it is a possibility, it is not a certainty.  Utah has pathetic voter registration rates and average rates of voting among those who do register.  I may be wrong, but I doubt there will be any large surge in voter registration among the Mormons just so they can say they voted for a Mormon president.  Plus, Oklahoma has an advantage in that their election laws keep the minor parties off the ballot, so Romney won't be bleeding votes to the Constitution and Libertarian parties in Oklahoma like he will in Utah, which not only lets minor parties participate, but also write-ins.

[DrScholl]

I believe the Mormon vote is pretty maxed out in terms of vote share, so any boost for Romney would have to come mostly from non-Mormons. I'm not sure outperforming Bush's 71% in 2004 is all that possible, since Bush probably was getting a better chunk of non-Mormons than McCain did. I'd wager 65% will be what he gets and Oklahoma could beat that by a point or two.

[AndrewTX]

Honestly, I dont think it will be. I'd imagine that if Romney somehow manages to win the state it'll probably be 55%, and that's hitting the celing.

[politicus]

I believe the Mormon vote is pretty maxed out in terms of vote share, so any boost for Romney would have to come mostly from non-Mormons. I'm not sure outperforming Bush's 71% in 2004 is all that possible, since Bush probably was getting a better chunk of non-Mormons than McCain did. I'd wager 65% will be what he gets and Oklahoma could beat that by a point or two.

This

[AmericanNation]

He did save the salt lake games and could have (and considered) run for governor (and won) of the state... Probably makes him better than McCain or Bush in Utah, but that isn't the only variable.