Which state is Obama most likely to keep?

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Discuss.

[Wisconsin+17]

All of them.

[politicus]

Both, but I voted NC because its trending Dem.

[Adam Griffin]

North Carolina, surprisingly. FL will be a perpetual swing state for at least another 15 years and I think despite Romney's poor performance that will most likely manifest in November, he still has a shot at FL. There's too many dynamics that cancel each other out (older, conservative Northerners constantly moving in and Cubans versus younger, more liberal Latinos and other minorities). The oldies might tilt the balance this time.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

NC. Romney is not a great fit for NC republicans, while FL is one of the few states where he fits the bill pretty well. NC is also trending heavily towards the Democrats and Obama's polling seems to have a higher ceiling there.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

North Carolina- solely because of the possibility of Rubio on the ticket

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

The amount of infrastructure already in North Carolina makes it daunting for Romney to match that organization. Obama is only going to dump more money, offices, and a nice convention into the state to further burst his presence. I expect turn out to be high here; it should be close.

[Lambsbread]

North Carolina, though Florida may also go for Obama.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Guess I'm the only one who thinks both will go for Romney.

North Carolina though, if I had to pick one.

[Stranger in a strange land]

North Carolina, though mainly because Romney is such a terrible fit for the state.

[RJ]

I think there's a more solid Democratic base especially in the southern part of Florida than there is anywhere in North Carolina.

[Miles]

I think there's a more solid Democratic base especially in the southern part of Florida than there is anywhere in North Carolina.

The Chapel Hill-Durham area is pretty solidly Democratic and Wake/Mecklenburg counties are quickly trending D.

[Adam Griffin]

I think there's a more solid Democratic base especially in the southern part of Florida than there is anywhere in North Carolina.

The Chapel Hill-Durham area is pretty solidly Democratic and Wake/Mecklenburg counties are quickly trending D.

While it's become somewhat diluted over the past decade, the "Black Belt" is North Carolina's de-facto Democratic base. With the exception of the areas due east of Wake County, the belt has held through the past three elections without disintegrated all that much. As Miles said, there's also now the addition of the liberal finance and education hubs to the west of the belt.

[pbrower2a]

I picked North Carolina because Florida has a corrupt Governor who would do anything.

[Donerail]

I picked North Carolina because Florida has a corrupt Governor who would do anything.

I picked Florida because almost nobody here likes said corrupt governor, and if the Obama campaign can tie Romney to Scott, they win easily.

[RJ]

I think there's a more solid Democratic base especially in the southern part of Florida than there is anywhere in North Carolina.

The Chapel Hill-Durham area is pretty solidly Democratic and Wake/Mecklenburg counties are quickly trending D.

Yes, but there are 3 counties in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area that total over 2 million voters and those votes traditionally break down at least something like 60-40 in favor of the Democratic party. It's not a tail that wags the dog situation the way Cook County(IL) or King county(WA) are in their respective states but there's nothing like that in North Carolina.

[Brittain33]

Obama's got a problem with seniors which isn't going to get any better in 2012. That does not help him cross the 50% line in Florida unless he's winning by a sizable margin.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NC is still more republican than Florida, and this won't change before a few years despite trends.

[pbrower2a]

I picked North Carolina because Florida has a corrupt Governor who would do anything.

I picked Florida because almost nobody here likes said corrupt governor, and if the Obama campaign can tie Romney to Scott, they win easily.

Ferdinand Marcos, Nicolae Ceausescu, and Saddam Hussein could always arrange such things. Of course if things start going badly for the Republicans, Governor Scott can cover his derriere with an honest count so that he doesn't face big trouble. 

[Donerail]

I picked North Carolina because Florida has a corrupt Governor who would do anything.

I picked Florida because almost nobody here likes said corrupt governor, and if the Obama campaign can tie Romney to Scott, they win easily.

Ferdinand Marcos, Nicolae Ceausescu, and Saddam Hussein could always arrange such things. Of course if things start going badly for the Republicans, Governor Scott can cover his derriere with an honest count so that he doesn't face big trouble. 

Stealing millions from the health care system isn't that close to crimes against humanity, and Scott hasn't invaded Georgia or transported better-fed cows across the state for his photo ops (yet, at least). But Florida does have a reputation for elections of questionable veracity (see 2000).