AP's Swing State map (April 2012)

[Tender Branson]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/04/14/us/politics/ap-us-road-to-270-glance.html?_r=2&hp

What I would change:

NM, MN, WI, MI -> Safe Obama

PA -> Tossup

GA, SC -> Lean Romney (but we need more polls from there, preferably from Mason-Dixon, PPP and SurveyUSA)

[Tender Branson]

This is more realistic:

Though obviously its a stretch to call Pennsylvania a tossup, and Obama's consistently ahead in VA, OH, and NH as well.

AR is only lean ?

[Tender Branson]

Junk junk junk! Only map worth looking at would be one based on polling, including only pollsters with good records, starting in 2 months or so...

The next 4 months are pretty much useless when it comes to polling. I expect it to be similar to the Kerry vs. Bush summer. Polling will become interesting when Mason-Dixon starts polling a lot of states in August/September. Which is also the time when PPP switches to a likely voter model.