Make an Obama/Romney trend map

[Nichlemn]

Quick attempt by me, mostly an agglomeration of Romney's primary results, home state effects, the theory that previous large swings would regress to the mean and some polling.

[5280]

Pink is trending Romney, and Blue is trending Obama? Or the other way?

[morgieb]

Pink is trending Romney, and Blue is trending Obama? Or the other way?

Looking at the map it's the other way round I'd imagine.

[5280]

Pink is trending Romney, and Blue is trending Obama? Or the other way?

Looking at the map it's the other way round I'd imagine.

I guess Oklahoma and some of the south states trend DEM because Romney isn't conservative enough?

[Nichlemn]

Pink is trending Romney, and Blue is trending Obama? Or the other way?

Looking at the map it's the other way round I'd imagine.

I guess Oklahoma and some of the south states trend DEM because Romney isn't conservative enough?

Because he's a Massachusetts country club Mormon who is squishy on social issues, whereas McCain had his military bona fides. It's not Republicans voting for Obama in droves, it's lower turnout plus some swingy white Democrats returning to voting Democratic for President.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Quick attempt by me, mostly an agglomeration of Romney's primary results, home state effects, the theory that previous large swings would regress to the mean and some polling.

My map is rather similar, though I'd say that the Dakotas would trend R (North Dakota just had an oil boom and is growing quickly), as would New Mexico. Connecticut, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah would trend more R. That would be offset by, say, Pennsylvania and Maine trending D.

[tmthforu94]

Despite what some polls currently say, I think it'll be pretty close on Election Day. I'm actually starting to really think Obama could win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote.

30% is about a 1-3% shift, not too much. 40% is a 4-7% shift, and 60% is 7%+. There's probably a couple mistakes, I just didn't catch them.

[Nichlemn]

Despite what some polls currently say, I think it'll be pretty close on Election Day. I'm actually starting to really think Obama could win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote.

30% is about a 1-3% shift, not too much. 40% is a 4-7% shift, and 60% is 7%+. There's probably a couple mistakes, I just didn't catch them.

Note that I'm looking for a trend (swing relative to the national vote) map, not a swing map. All trends need to cancel each other out, and that doesn't seem possible with only nine states trending Obama.

[tmthforu94]

Despite what some polls currently say, I think it'll be pretty close on Election Day. I'm actually starting to really think Obama could win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote.

30% is about a 1-3% shift, not too much. 40% is a 4-7% shift, and 60% is 7%+. There's probably a couple mistakes, I just didn't catch them.

Note that this is a trend (swing relative to the national vote) map, not a swing map. All trends need to cancel each other out, and that doesn't seem possible with only nine states trending Obama.

You're correct. Just pretend it's a swing map, then.

[Torie]

A robot can do swing maps from a national baseline. Humans need to do trend maps.

[Beet]

Here's mine.

My reasoning is similar to Nichlemn, but I think the Plains states have an anti-incumbency bias, and some of Obama's "home-region" advantage from 2008 wears off. Florida is a wild-card, but I have a suspicion that Obama under-performed there in 2008. O/c, if Romney picks Rubio then all bets are off.

[JerryBrown2010]

Uselectionatlas Poll Map + Obama Vs Romney RCP Avarege = Trend Map



Obama +4.1%

This map shows that Obama is actually polling a point or so higher then 4.1% above Romney.

[opebo]

So all that really matters is this:

Because any Romney trends won't go far enough to flip PA, IA, etc., only NH (and of course IN/NC/FL).  If the Dem trend continues in CO/VA/OH then all is well.

[LastVoter]

So all that really matters is this:

Because any Romney trends won't go far enough to flip PA, IA, etc., only NH (and of course IN/NC/FL).  If the Dem trend continues in CO/VA/OH then all is well.

I think CO/VA could go either way on a trend map, at this point. Too many rich people.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It should look something like that.

[opebo]

So all that really matters is this:

Because any Romney trends won't go far enough to flip PA, IA, etc., only NH (and of course IN/NC/FL).  If the Dem trend continues in CO/VA/OH then all is well.

I think CO/VA could go either way on a trend map, at this point. Too many rich people.

Really?  Well obviously there's very little room for Obama to survive if either of those trends away from him - particularly Colorado - but happily there's little indication of that so far.

[Nichlemn]

So all that really matters is this:

Because any Romney trends won't go far enough to flip PA, IA, etc., only NH (and of course IN/NC/FL).  If the Dem trend continues in CO/VA/OH then all is well.

I think CO/VA could go either way on a trend map, at this point. Too many rich people.

Really?  Well obviously there's very little room for Obama to survive if either of those trends away from him - particularly Colorado - but happily there's little indication of that so far.

The swing is the main factor in who wins though. If Obama wins or loses by 10, all those states could trend towards or away from him respectively, but it wouldn't matter.

[morgieb]

[LastVoter]

So all that really matters is this:

Because any Romney trends won't go far enough to flip PA, IA, etc., only NH (and of course IN/NC/FL).  If the Dem trend continues in CO/VA/OH then all is well.

I think CO/VA could go either way on a trend map, at this point. Too many rich people.

Really?  Well obviously there's very little room for Obama to survive if either of those trends away from him - particularly Colorado - but happily there's little indication of that so far.

I'm not saying they will, it would be more of a toss-up which way they will trend. But Ohio will trend to Obama, and if Colorado trends to Romney it won't be by more than 1% against national average, and Nevada is out of reach. I'd say Obama is fairly safe unless he loses big(>1%) in the popular vote.

This is actually possible. If Ohio trends over 2% to Obama and Colorado trends 1% to Romney(not completely unrealistic).