Romney VP search begins

[milhouse24]

Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

[milhouse24]

Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

[milhouse24]

My money is on Portman or Thune.

Mine's on Daniels or Pawlenty.

Daniels will never do it because his wife will literally be destroyed and ruined by the liberal media covering her first divorce. 

If you weren't sickened, shocked, amused, satisfied by the media's Sarah Palin family massacre, then you will be prepared for the politics of personal destruction that will befall on Mitch Daniel's family. 

I don't know how many sick Feminists love to see Sarah Palin personally ruined, but it shows how much worse women have it in politics and the political media.  Maybe its just all about abortion, but it proves how awful it is to be a woman in politics. 

[milhouse24]

Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

Name Recognition wins every time? There are some good counterexamples to that. The 1972 Delaware Senate race is one.

Barring scandal association, name recognition is very helpful. 

[milhouse24]

Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

IF Jeb Bush is fairly competent and a social moderate, does that anger the Republican base? Isn't the conventional wisdom that he needs to pick a social conservative to appease the masses? And as to their being the same: Jeb Bush was a member of a significant neocon think tank (Project for a New American Century), which promoted the continuation, maintenance, and expansion of an empire throughout the world. Don't think too many voters will go for that.

Now your saying that republicans are dumb christian conservatives who only care about religion and guns.  I think there are far more economic, wealth-minded, low taxes republicans throughout the country than evangelicals.  These republicans go where the best investment strategy goes.  In 2008, a case can be made it was a better to cut foreign spending on wars rather than to increase surge involvement.  A lot of these people include independents, or so called Reagan Democrats.  These are people who care about government spending and eliminating the deficit.  Bill Clinton ran on a platform of eliminating the deficit.  But Jeb is valuable because he has strong name recognition among the Evangelicals who supported his brother.  He will be seen as an Evangelical supporter, even though he is not an evangelical in practice.  That is probably the best marketing for a candidate, because he is able to get the support of Christian conservatives while also getting the support of Moderate Social Catholic voters and Hispanics.  These are very valuable constituencies to have and to count on their support in November. 

[milhouse24]

Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

IF Jeb Bush is fairly competent and a social moderate, does that anger the Republican base? Isn't the conventional wisdom that he needs to pick a social conservative to appease the masses? And as to their being the same: Jeb Bush was a member of a significant neocon think tank (Project for a New American Century), which promoted the continuation, maintenance, and expansion of an empire throughout the world. Don't think too many voters will go for that.

Now your saying that republicans are.  I think there are far more economic, wealth-minded, low taxes republicans throughout the country than evangelicals.  These republicans go where the best investment strategy goes.  In 2008, a case can be made it was a better to cut foreign spending on wars rather than to increase surge involvement.  A lot of these people include independents, or so called Reagan Democrats.  These are people who care about government spending and eliminating the deficit.  Bill Clinton ran on a platform of eliminating the deficit.  But Jeb is valuable because he has strong name recognition among the Evangelicals who supported his brother.  He will be seen as an Evangelical supporter, even though he is not an evangelical in practice.  That is probably the best marketing for a candidate, because he is able to get the support of Christian conservatives while also getting the support of Moderate Social Catholic votersand Hispanics.  These are very valuable constituencies to have and to count on their support in November. 

I'm not saying that Republicans are "dumb christian conservatives who only care about religion and guns", I'm saying that a good chunk (maybe 40%) of the Republican Party is socially conservative. I do think there are many more (maybe 60%) fiscally conservative Republicans  who are in the party in an attempt to promote their economic, rather than their social, views; however, 40% is nothing to scoff at, and in an attempt to balance the two spheres, Romney (from the latter portion) probably wants to pick someone from the former portion, such as Rubio, McDonell, or Huckabee. In addition, there are possible negative repercussions for the party if Romney chooses someone who maintains moderate views on social issues, such as say Governor Sandoval of Nevada, or Gov. Bush, that may depress turnout among the base, which could allow someone like Obama to eke out victories in states like the Carolinas and Georgia.

but as I pointed out, I believe that Jeb can capture the Evangelical voters because of his brother's good will, without being an evangelcal himself.  He can have the best of both worlds by getting the evangelical vote and then capturing the moderate catholic voters as well.  There will be enough believers who trust Jeb over someone like rubio or portman.

[milhouse24]

Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

Name Recognition wins every time? There are some good counterexamples to that. The 1972 Delaware Senate race is one.

Barring scandal association, name recognition is very helpful. 

Given the Bush administration, name recognition can also be a curse.

But how will the "Bush name" be spun by the media and by conservatives. 

The liberal media will demonize the Bush Family because they all want to start Christian Crusades around the world to help their oil buddies. 

Yet the conservatives will rally around the "Bush name" because they know that Jeb is a different person than George. 

Then the question will be how independents feel about the "Bush name"  Will people be sick of dynasties even though Jeb was a successful 2 term governor of diverse and hispanic Florida.  Or will voters be sick of ruinous families, like allowing Bill Clinton to repeat his shenanigans, affairs, whatever, in the white house as first spouse. 

But my point is that Jeb also appeals to a wider set of citizens than Dubya.  Jeb appeals to Hispanics who love him, and moderate catholics.  Will there be enough time to erase the hatred for Dubya for Jeb to run in 2012, at least amongst indepedents? 

[milhouse24]

Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

Name Recognition wins every time? There are some good counterexamples to that. The 1972 Delaware Senate race is one.

Barring scandal association, name recognition is very helpful. 

Given the Bush administration, name recognition can also be a curse.

But how will the "Bush name" be spun by the media and by conservatives. 

The liberal media will demonize the Bush Family because they all want to start Christian Crusades around the world to help their oil buddies. 

Yet the conservatives will rally around the "Bush name" because they know that Jeb is a different person than George. 

Then the question will be how independents feel about the "Bush name"  Will people be sick of dynasties even though Jeb was a successful 2 term governor of diverse and hispanic Florida.  Or will voters be sick of ruinous families, like allowing Bill Clinton to repeat his shenanigans, affairs, whatever, in the white house as first spouse. 

But my point is that Jeb also appeals to a wider set of citizens than Dubya.  Jeb appeals to Hispanics who love him, and moderate catholics.  Will there be enough time to erase the hatred for Dubya for Jeb to run in 2012, at least amongst indepedents? 

Your choice scenario (dynasty vs Clinton) doesn't really make sense. The alternative to voting for Romney/Bush in 2012 is Hillary? The issue is, when people hear Bush, they don't think Jeb. They'll walk into the polling booths with memories of Iraq and Afghanistan in their heads, and that just might be enough to push them to the Dems.

Well, I meant with Hillary, it would be like Bill never left the white house, meaning he literally and physically gets a 3rd term in the white house to fool around in the lincoln bedroom hooking up with white house interns. 

Jeb has distanced himself professionally from Dubya for a long time and Jeb has his own life, ideas, and accomplishments.  Citizens aren't thinking about Iraq or Afghanistan anymore.  Now that bin laden is dead, no one is worrying about the mideast as much.  People are worrying about failed economic policies, so people will compare economic failures of Obama with the economic failures of Bush.  So i don't think Obama can claim his economic policies are far superior and successful, since they are basically equally not good. 

It would be risky for Jeb depending on how the media spins it.  But I think Romney needs a well-known established name on the ticket if he wants any chance at winning.  I just don't think a new politician will be able to give the ticket the gravitas it needs to beat an incumbent.

[milhouse24]

I think a Romney/Bush ticket could clearly be the best bet, but sadly I doubt it will happen.

This may sound pessimistic, but I don't see any other VP candidate delivering swing states. 
DeMint is somewhat controversial, perhaps more controversial than the "Bush last name"
Portman is an unknown politician that would make Romney appear "too desperate to attract Ohio voters" to voters outside of Ohio. 
Thune is okay but his appeal to Southern evangelicals isn't guarantee to secure victories in North Carolina and Virginia. 
Rubio would also appear to be a "desperate untested Palin pick" for Hispanic and Florida voters. 

For all of Jeb's possible criticism, I believe that the Bush name can at least deliver Ohio and Florida by decent margins by appealing to Hispanics and evangelicals.  Do some polling on the other VP candidates and they just don't have the "pull" with voters. 

Romney wants to win, and Jeb will give him the strongest chance of winning. 
This isn't a desperate Palin pick out of left field.  This is about picking a known quantity that will deliver voters. 

Sure some voters will be scared away from another Bush, but they were probably never going to vote Republican anyways. 

[milhouse24]

Anyone else catch Rubio's interview with Candy Crowley this morning?

He seemed to back-track from his previous promise to automatically reject a VP offer...

Rubio will not be the VP as Romney's choice or by his own withdrawal. 

The reason Rubio is no longer "rejecting" VP is because he wants the Media Exposure and PR from being VP. 

Basically, Rubio will be seen as another Palin, who is simply too young and NOT READY to be president on day one.  Picking Rubio would be a huge desperation move on Romney for Hispanics/Florida voters, with great public uneasiness about Rubio becoming president possibly as early as 2013.  Rubio will be seen as a dangerous maverick move that senile McCain would make.  The question you have to ask yourself, Is President Rubio ready now, and the answer most Americans will say is "no." 

So the Romney staff also wants to keep Rubio in the VP headlines because it will give the perception that Romney is targeting Hispanic voters and Florida voters.  Its a PR game for the Romney camp to float Rubio's name as a leading contender.  The Romney camp will float all the Swing State VP possibilities just to pander to Swing states, even if those men/women will not be serious considerations.  Example, Obama wanted Tim Kaine as VP, but this was basically a ploy to gain Virginia voters and surrogates. 

Rubio wants to keep his name in the VP headlines because it will help his gravitas when he runs for president in 2016/2020, improves his fundraising, helps his re-election, improves his Senate clout, and media clout.  Rubio is playing the PR game plain and simple.  He has no substance as a VP candidate in 2012. 

Romney won't make a desperate high risk pick to pander to voters. 

But Romney will make a pick for someone who he cannot win without and offers substance as a serious presidential possibility.  The Romney VP will offer just the right ingredients to win the necessary independent and swing state voters.  The question is finding the right person if he/she exists. 

[milhouse24]

Romney/Bush vs. weak incumbent Obama would be akin to Reagan/Bush vs. weak incumbent Carter. Of course, who knows.

If I were Jeb, I wouldn't wait 4 years to run for president in 2016.  A lot can happen in life, and there are certainly no guarantees if you wait, look what happened to Hillary.  He would be 64 and his health may decline.  So Jeb should accept VP if offered.  The media can make all the judgements, but I don't think any other VP can deliver on experience, hispanic voters, swing states, and media savvy. 

I also think Ohio and Florida will be very difficult to take from Obama.  He has a lot of influence in the midwest.  He also has a lot of popularity with hispanics in Florida.  On his own, Romney can probably do better in Ohio, so he will definitely need help from a VP to win Florida. 

[milhouse24]

This is why playing the swing state game in VP selection doesn't work.

Work to create the strongest possible ticket overall and that is how the VP will "help" in swing states.

That is why I still think Jeb Bush gives him the best ticket overall, at least according to polls indicating that Romney-Bush can beat Obama.  I don't really see any other VP candidate having as much success against Obama.  If Romney wants to win then he will most likely pick Jeb.  There are some other 'safe' choices that will help Romney keep it close but still lose.  I don't see Portman being that strong and it might even make Romney look too desperate in only going after Ohio while ignoring the South and Florida voters.  As least by picking Jeb, it will give a vote of confidence that he is picking the most competent person available, and he doesn't care how much the liberal media hates Jeb.  It will also be the liberal media that will focus the talk about the Bush past, and ignore Obama's past 4 years, and neglect the more important talk about the future.  Of course voters don't want the media to focus on the past, they want to focus on the future.  Romney-Bush probably talks about a better future than Obama-Biden.  At least Romney can talk about bringing prosperity back to Americans, while Obama talks about Americans living averagely in a shiny peaceful world. 

[milhouse24]

thats the best thing could happen. romney-bush 2012



obama2012

Exactly, Jeb on the ticket would automatically guarantee Florida, and losing Florida will make it very difficult for Obama to win.  If they attack Jeb's family, then his wife will speak espanol to all the hispanics about Obama being anti-spanish and hating mexicans.  I can really see Jeb being a victim if they go after his family in such a personal way, and it would offend his wife.  Of course, it would be weird to have a Mexican-born wife in the executive office, but I can see a lot of hispanics rallying around Bush to protect his family from personal attacks. 

Most of the other VP options are small time politicians who won't carry the confidence of the nation.  If you want to be a dragon slayer, you have the compete against the best.  Obama beat senior citizen McCain but I don't think he can beat a Bush.  It would be an epically legendary campaign that would be very close.  It won't be as epic as Gore-Bush, but close. 

[milhouse24]

The thing about Jeb is, he'd be far-and-away the best pick, if it wasn't for his last name.

Jeb would never have become governor of Florida in the first place if it weren't for his last name.

Do you mean the time he lost in Florida as well?  Or just the times that he won?  He's not popular in Florida?

[milhouse24]

I think if the qualities are who is best ready to president and has a lot of relevent exeperience, here is my list:

1-jeb bush, managed a large state and is popular with hispanics
2-mitch daniels, managed a large midwest state for 2 terms, and has cabinet experience
3-jon thune, 2 term senator from the midwest
4-jim demint, 2 term southern senator
5-richard burr, 2 term southern senator
6-lamar alexander, 2 term southern senator
7-tim pawlenty, 2 term midwest governor
8-sam brownback, governor and 2 term midwest senator

I think there is a strong chance that someone from this group will be the GOP vice president.

[milhouse24]

I think if the qualities are who is best ready to president and has a lot of relevent exeperience, here is my list:

1-jeb bush, managed a large state and is popular with hispanics
2-mitch daniels, managed a large midwest state for 2 terms, and has cabinet experience
3-jon thune, 2 term senator from the midwest
4-jim demint, 2 term southern senator
5-richard burr, 2 term southern senator
6-lamar alexander, 2 term southern senator
7-tim pawlenty, 2 term midwest governor
sam brownback, governor and 2 term midwest senator

I think there is a strong chance that someone from this group will be the GOP vice president.

If you were looking to name the dullest politicians in the republican party...you win!

If you want excitement, just choose Sarah Palin again!
Ron Paul or Rand Paul would be an exciting VP!